NEW YORK, March 20, 2026, 13:34 EDT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 210.29 points to 45,811.14 by 12:15 p.m. ET on Friday, setting up a potential fourth consecutive weekly decline for the blue-chip index. The S&P 500 shed 0.71%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.99% as conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran weighed on risk assets.
The story’s shifted beyond geopolitics. With traders now pricing out a Fed rate cut until at least 2027, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have all slipped under their 200-day moving averages—a key marker for flagging momentum that investors track closely.
Oil and bond yields are leading the declines. Brent crude hovered near $109.35 a barrel and U.S. crude sat close to $97.33. The yield on the 10-year Treasury pushed up to 4.372%, with the two-year at 3.928%. Scott Welch, Certuity’s chief investment officer, said rising oil has investors “beginning to worry about inflation because of oil prices.” Reuters
Clarity from Fed officials remains elusive. Governor Christopher Waller pointed to the surge in energy prices as the reason he’s no longer backing a rate cut this week. He cautioned that if rising fuel costs begin feeding into broader inflation—beyond just energy—then “caution is warranted.” Reuters
FedEx delivered a brighter spot late Thursday, bumping up its full-year profit outlook after reporting that early March demand lined up with forecasts. Chief Customer Officer Brie Carere pointed to the fuel surcharge, saying it was “doing its job.” Chief Executive Raj Subramaniam added that FedEx is watching the conflict “extremely carefully.” Reuters
Stock-specific hits didn’t help sentiment. Super Micro Computer tanked 28% after U.S. prosecutors accused three individuals linked to the company of smuggling at least $2.5 billion worth of AI hardware to China. Dell, on the other hand, picked up 6% as investors rotated into what analysts see as a steadier Nvidia partner.
It’s not just the U.S. seeing shifts. European Central Bank officials flagged mounting inflation threats on Friday, prompting some brokerages to move up their forecasts for euro zone rate hikes—now eyeing April. The energy shock is pushing investors to reassess central bank policy far outside Washington.
Cash is calling: U.S. equity funds lost $24.78 billion in the week ended March 18, the sharpest outflow in almost two and a half months. Meanwhile, money market funds pulled in $32.73 billion as investors shifted toward safer, cash-style assets.
The downside remains up in the air. Reuters, citing LSEG data, found that 5% drops in the S&P 500 tend to be routine and usually snap back fast. But Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers warned that this time, buyers seem more hesitant compared to past downturns—so if the conflict lingers and high oil prices persist, the market could be in for more trouble.
