New York, March 20, 2026, 1:49 PM EDT
FedEx gained ground Friday, climbing 1.5% to $361.56 by early afternoon in New York, after briefly hitting $394.64. The company upped its full-year earnings outlook, noting that shipping demand stayed resilient into early March—even as fuel prices jumped and parts of the Middle East faced disruption.
But the impact went well beyond just FedEx. Investors often treat the company as a gauge for broader business activity—its package numbers track shifts in factory output, retail sales, and exports. Shares climbed even as the wider market stumbled, with traders worried that persistent energy costs could keep U.S. rates higher for longer. Midday numbers? The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all pointed down, on track for a fourth weekly drop.
FedEx posted adjusted earnings of $5.25 a share for the quarter ending Feb. 28, up from $4.51 the previous year, with revenue reaching $24.0 billion, compared to $22.2 billion. The company bumped up its full-year adjusted profit projection, now expecting $19.30 to $20.10 per share instead of the earlier $17.80 to $19.00 range. Revenue growth guidance was also raised, with FedEx now forecasting an increase of 6.0% to 6.5%, up from its earlier 5% to 6% estimate.
FedEx posted robust numbers, with Chief Executive Raj Subramaniam calling it the company’s “most profitable peak” holiday quarter yet. Executives noted that demand in early March matched what they saw during the fiscal third quarter. Reuters
Most of the upside was driven by Express, FedEx’s premium service focused on urgent deliveries. Here, U.S. domestic volume picked up, package prices moved higher, and margin improvement followed cost-cutting efforts. Still, some of that was eaten up by higher labor expenses, pricier purchased transport, shifts in trade policy and the MD-11 cargo fleet grounding.
Jonathan Chappell at Evercore ISI pointed out that higher oil prices could actually benefit FDX, since fuel surcharges enable carriers to offset some fuel price volatility. Matthew Young of Morningstar, for his part, described the rebound in business-to-business shipping as a “unique dynamic,” especially since retailer restocking remains muted and industrial activity is sluggish. Reuters
UPS didn’t budge much—shares slipped 0.03% to $96.53 in early afternoon trading. By comparison, FedEx still posted the stronger session, despite handing back most of its initial gains.
FedEx is working to convince investors its sweeping changes are bearing fruit. The plan includes merging Ground and Express, plus automating segments of the logistics chain. FedEx Freight is on track for a spinoff June 1, with an investor day scheduled in New York on April 8.
Still, the outlook is shaky. FedEx’s current guidance counts on the absence of fresh geopolitical trouble, with company executives cautioning that pricier shipping rates may nudge customers toward lower-cost, slower delivery. Another drag: the MD-11 grounding will tack on $55 million in expenses this quarter.
FedEx stood out as one of the few winners in the session. By midday, most S&P 500 sectors had slipped into negative territory. Energy names managed gains, and volatility spiked as traders recalibrated rate bets after the oil shock.
