Bitcoin Price Near $91,000 as Coinbase Premium Flips Positive – BTC Outlook and Forecast for 2025

Published: November 29, 2025

Bitcoin is spending the final weekend of November holding the crucial $90,000–$91,000 zone after one of the sharpest pullbacks of this cycle, even as fresh data shows U.S. demand re‑emerging and macro conditions turning more supportive.

As of Saturday, major aggregators put the Bitcoin price around $90,700–$90,900, down less than 1% over the past 24 hours but still up around 10% from this month’s capitulation low near $82,000. ^[1]

At the same time, Bitcoin remains roughly 28% below its all‑time high near $126,000 set in early October, according to CoinDesk and CoinMarketCap data, even after a 450% gain over the past three years highlighted in recent holiday coverage. ^[2]

Below we break down what moved BTC on November 28–29, 2025, what the latest on‑chain and macro signals are saying, and how analysts are framing Bitcoin’s price forecast into 2026.

Bitcoin price today: holding the $90k line after a brutal reset

Snapshot – November 29, 2025

Spot price: ~$90,700–$90,900
24h performance: Slightly negative (under 1% move) as BTC trades sideways after Friday’s modest rally. ^[3]
Weekly move: Roughly +10% after rebounding from the $82,000 lows earlier this month. ^[4]
From October ATH: Down about 28% from the $126,080 peak on October 6, 2025. ^[5]
Three‑year performance: Up roughly 450% compared to Thanksgiving 2022 levels. ^[6]
Market cap & volume: Around $1.8T market cap with daily trading volume above $50–65B, indicating that liquidity remains deep despite the correction. ^[7]

Price data from Investing.com shows that on November 29 Bitcoin has traded in a relatively tight $90,368–$91,102 intraday range, following a slightly higher open near $90,895 and closing only ~0.2% lower on the day. ^[8]

In other words: Bitcoin is not crashing anymore, but it’s also far from euphoric. That tension sets the stage for the news flow of the last 48 hours.

Seven Bitcoin stories that defined November 28–29, 2025

1. Thanksgiving rally as Fed rate cut bets surge

On Friday, CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin entered a “modest rally mode” after Thanksgiving, briefly tagging around $93,000 as markets priced in a December interest‑rate cut with high confidence. ^[9]

Odds of a 25 bps Federal Reserve cut in December are now above 80–85%, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Bitwise’s André Dragosch. ^[10]
Crypto‑related stocks, particularly bitcoin miners, outperformed broader markets as investors repositioned for looser policy. ^[11]

Lower expected rates reduce the appeal of cash and bonds, historically acting as a tailwind for risk assets like BTC, even if the effect doesn’t arrive instantly.

2. A rebound… but the downtrend “still looms”

Despite the bounce, CoinDesk’s “Crypto Markets Today” column emphasized that Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet:

BTC crept back toward $91,500, the highest since November 20, but analysts warned that a break above $98,000 – and ideally sustained trading over $100,000 – is needed to invalidate the month‑long downtrend from the October high. ^[12]
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits near 20/100 (Fear), up from 10 (Extreme fear) last week but well below the “greed” levels above 80 seen in late 2024. ^[13]

Put simply: the market has stabilized, but technically it’s still in a corrective structure, not a confirmed renewed uptrend.

3. Coinbase Premium flips positive – U.S. demand returns

One of the most important signals this weekend is the Coinbase Premium Index.

CoinDesk reports that Bitcoin’s “Coinbase Premium” – the price difference between Coinbase and the global BTC average – has turned positive after nearly a month in the red. ^[14]

Key points from that report and supporting coverage:

BTC is hovering around $91,000 as the premium flips, signaling a revival of U.S. spot buying after weeks of discounted Coinbase prices. ^[15]
Stablecoin balances on Binance have hit a record ~$51.1B, giving traders sizable “dry powder” that could rotate into BTC and other majors. ^[16]
Analysts from firms like Kronos and Presto describe the move as a standard oversold bounce after two weeks of leveraged wipeouts, with positioning now “reset” for potential upside. ^[17]

AMBCrypto’s separate analysis notes that BTC has reclaimed $90K, formed a higher low near the $84K region, and is starting to show early bullish momentum signals, including a developing MACD crossover. ^[18]

Positive Coinbase Premium + higher low + re‑accumulating stablecoins is exactly the combination bulls wanted to see after November’s shake‑out.

4. Institutions keep buying the dip

A widely shared 99Bitcoins market update paints a very different picture from the doomscrolling on social media:

Bitcoin is “parked around $90,000” despite a major outage at a Chicago data center that briefly disrupted global trading screens. ^[19]
Ark Invest reportedly bought around $88M in Bitcoin, while BlackRock added roughly $68.8M in Ethereum, even as retail sentiment remains fearful. ^[20]
Roughly $190B has flowed back into the crypto market in a week, and Circle minted another $500M USDC (about $1.25B over the last few days), expanding the pool of stablecoin liquidity that often rotates into BTC and large‑cap altcoins. ^[21]

At the ETF level, Binance’s daily market note highlights positive net flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on the last full trading day before Thanksgiving:

BTC spot ETFs: +$21.1M net inflows
ETH spot ETFs: +$60.8M net inflows ^[22]

The takeaway: while price action has been scary, big money has been quietly buying into the weakness.

5. Derivatives reset: options expiry and leveraged wipeouts

Several pieces point to derivatives markets as a key driver of November’s volatility:

A report aggregated by CryptoRank notes that about $15B in BTC, ETH and XRP options expired on Friday, November 28, with $13.4B of that in Bitcoin options alone – a setup traders expected to unleash short‑term volatility. ^[23]
CoinDesk’s Coinbase Premium article remarks that options desks saw a “reset” in positioning, with speculative long leverage largely flushed out and downside skew cooling from extremes. ^[24]

This combination helps explain how Bitcoin could drop to the low‑$80Ks, liquidating aggressive traders, and then snap back toward $91K once the forced selling abated. ^[25]

6. Tether shuts down Uruguay mining over energy costs

On the mining front, Tether – issuer of the USDT stablecoin – unexpectedly announced it is closing its Bitcoin mining operations in Uruguay, citing high energy prices and regulatory hurdles. ^[26]

Key details from CoinDesk and regional reports:

Tether planned to invest up to $500M in Uruguay, including data centers and a 300 MW renewable energy park, but is now pulling out. ^[27]
The company has already spent over $100M and committed another $50M on infrastructure, and will lay off around 30 of 38 local employees. ^[28]

While this is unlikely to dramatically alter Bitcoin’s security or hash rate by itself, it underlines a structural risk: energy policy and regulation can abruptly reshape the mining map, which sometimes feeds into miner selling pressure and sentiment.

7. Bitwise: Bitcoin is pricing in a recession that data doesn’t show

Perhaps the most striking narrative comes from Bitwise’s head of research, André Dragosch, in a CoinDesk feature titled “Bitcoin Pricing in ‘Most Bearish Global Growth Outlook’ Since Covid and FTX Crash.” ^[29]

His argument in brief:

Using macro surveys such as Sentix, ISM and the Philly Fed, Dragosch compares actual global growth expectations with what Bitcoin’s price implies.
The “implied growth outlook” in BTC has plunged below -1 standard deviation, more pessimistic than during the March 2020 COVID crash or the 2022 FTX collapse – even though survey‑based growth indicators are near neutral. ^[30]
He calls the current setup “asymmetric”, arguing that BTC is behaving as if a deep recession is guaranteed while macro data and a likely December Fed cut (86.4% probability) suggest conditions are improving. ^[31]

In his words, investors are “not even remotely bullish enough”, noting that similar disconnects previously preceded multi‑fold rallies.

Technical picture: key Bitcoin levels after the pullback

Across exchanges and analyst notes, a rough consensus map of support and resistance has emerged for BTC/USD.

Immediate support and resistance

From Binance’s market update, AMBCrypto’s chart work and CoinDesk’s premium analysis: ^[32]

Support zones
- $90,000 – newly reclaimed support and psychological line in the sand.
- $88,000 – first deeper support if $90K fails.
- $86,500–$87,000 – a critical area; CoinDesk flags a break below $87K as reopening the path to $80K. ^[33]
- $84,000–$82,000 – region of this month’s capitulation low, where BTC briefly traded for the first time since April. ^[34]
Resistance zones
- $92,500–$94,000 – near‑term resistance cluster from late November that bulls need to clear convincingly. ^[35]
- $95,000 – FxPro analysts quoted by CoinDesk argue that a firm break here is required to “reclaim trend.” ^[36]
- $98,000–$102,000 – widely watched “breakout zone” where both Binance and CoinDesk say a sustained move would likely invalidate the current downtrend and re‑open the case for six‑figure prices. ^[37]

So far, Bitcoin is stuck between $90K support and $95K resistance, with traders watching for a decisive move out of that channel.

Momentum and volatility indicators

A fresh technical report from Meyka gives a more quantified view: ^[38]

RSI around 38.3 on the daily timeframe – nearing oversold territory but not yet deeply so.
ADX near 44 – signaling a strong trend, i.e., the recent move is meaningful rather than random noise.
ATR above 4,400 – underlining high intraday volatility.
Price has been trading close to the lower Bollinger Band near $82,000, often a zone where past corrections have exhausted themselves before reversals.

Meyka’s analysis also frames $82,000 as a key support and suggests that a sustained bounce from that lower band could fuel another push toward the $100,000 region.

Sentiment and on‑chain data: fear on the surface, accumulation underneath

Sentiment indicators currently send a mixed but intriguing signal.

Fear & Greed index and retail mood

The CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at about 20 (“Fear”), up from 10 (“Extreme fear”) on November 22 but still far from the greedy highs of late 2024. ^[39]
Binance notes that this move ended an 18‑day streak in “Extreme fear”, one of the longest such runs this cycle. ^[40]

Scrolling through crypto social media, narratives about “cycle tops” and “84% crashes” are common – exactly the kind of retail pessimism that historically appears after, not before, the biggest drawdowns. ^[41]

Whales, institutions and stablecoin flows

Beneath the surface, several data points suggest larger players are accumulating:

On‑chain analytics cited by Binance show large wallets adding BTC during the dip, while smaller traders continue selling – a divergence that has preceded reversals in past cycles. ^[42]
Stablecoin balances on Binance at record levels and Circle’s rapid USDC issuance both point to fresh capital waiting on the sidelines. ^[43]
99Bitcoins highlights MVRV Z‑Score near 1.07 and the Puell Multiple under 1, levels historically associated with oversold conditions and miner stress, not euphoric tops. Classic “top indicators” like the Pi Cycle Top have not triggered. ^[44]

Put together, the data hints at a familiar crypto pattern: retail is scared, but whales, ETFs and institutions are quietly accumulating, betting that the bull market is paused, not over.

Macro backdrop: Bitcoin versus gold, rates and liquidity

The macro environment shaping BTC over the past week looks like this:

CoinDesk’s “Why Gold Is Winning Over Bitcoin in 2025” notes that since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, gold has risen about 58% while Bitcoin has fallen around 12%, as central banks and large allocators still prefer gold’s long‑established market structure. ^[45]
Analyst Mark Connors argues that Bitcoin’s recent slump reflects a global liquidity squeeze, not a collapse in long‑term faith in the asset, pointing partly to U.S. Treasury spending constraints. ^[46]
Meanwhile, silver has just printed a fresh all‑time high near $56, up nearly 90% this year, as risk assets and commodities rally together. ^[47]

For Bitcoin specifically, the interplay is clear:

Rate cuts and improving growth expectations are typically bullish for BTC.
Liquidity squeezes and regulatory shocks (like Tether’s Uruguay exit) can still generate sharp, temporary drawdowns.

Bitwise’s thesis is that Bitcoin is currently priced for a recession that may not actually arrive, which, if true, could set up a positive surprise if growth and liquidity improve. ^[48]

Bitcoin price forecast: scenarios for the next weeks and into 2026

No model can predict Bitcoin’s path with certainty, and every reputable outlet – from Meyka to Binance and 99Bitcoins – stresses that these are scenarios, not guarantees. Below is a synthesis of how current research frames BTC’s outlook.

Reminder: None of this is financial advice. Crypto is highly volatile and you can lose all of your capital.

1. Short‑term (coming weeks to early 2026)

Base‑case: Sideways chop in the $85K–$95K band

After a 36% pullback over six weeks, 99Bitcoins describes the recent action as the “harshest reset of the cycle” but notes that structurally nothing appears broken. ^[49]
With options leverage flushed, Coinbase Premium just turning positive, and stablecoin balances at records, many desks expect choppy, range‑bound trading while the market digests the shock – roughly $85K support up to $95K resistance. ^[50]

Under this scenario, BTC would:

Respect $90K as a pivot, occasionally dipping to $86K–$88K.
Fade near $94K–$95K unless a clear new catalyst appears (for example, a decisive Fed cut or major ETF inflows).

Bullish scenario: Breakout above $100K and a run to $110K+

Meyka’s BTCUSD forecast model points to monthly targets near $100,100 and quarterly targets around $138,700, based on its technical and statistical models. ^[51]
99Bitcoins notes that if BTC pushes toward roughly $112,000, more than $15B in short positions could be at risk of liquidation, potentially triggering a short squeeze. ^[52]
Binance and CoinDesk agree that a clean break above the $98K–$102K band, followed by consolidation, would likely mark a transition back to a confirmed bull trend. ^[53]

This bullish path likely requires:

The Fed following through with rate cuts without a severe recession.
Coinbase Premium staying positive, showing persistent U.S. demand.
ETF flows remaining net positive.

Bearish scenario: Breakdown toward $80K (or lower)

Meyka’s “BTCUSD News Today” article frames the current zone as a tug‑of‑war between a surge to $100K or a slide back to $80K by year‑end, depending on whether support holds. ^[54]
CoinDesk warns that a drop below ~$87K would reopen the path to $80K, effectively extending November’s capitulation phase. ^[55]

Bearish triggers could include:

A negative macro surprise (delayed or cancelled Fed cuts, sudden risk‑off in equities).
Regulatory shocks hitting major players, stablecoins or mining hubs beyond the Tether‑Uruguay story. ^[56]
A return of aggressive leveraged selling, particularly if new lows spook remaining longs.

2. Medium‑term: 2026 and beyond

Most longer‑horizon models and commentaries remain constructively bullish, but with wide uncertainty bands.

Meyka’s long‑term projections suggest Bitcoin could reach roughly $148K–$188K over the next 3–5 years, assuming continued adoption, favorable macro conditions and no catastrophic regulatory shocks. ^[57]
Economic Times’ Thanksgiving analysis reminds investors that even with a rocky 2025, Bitcoin has delivered about 450% returns over three years, underscoring its history of large drawdowns inside longer‑term uptrends. ^[58]

However, Coindesk’s gold‑versus‑Bitcoin piece warns that BTC is still “too young” for many institutional allocators, and gold’s strong performance this year shows that alternative assets do compete for capital. ^[59]

A realistic medium‑term view:

Upside case: Growing ETF adoption, incremental regulatory clarity and repeated macro easing cycles could push BTC to new six‑figure highs, albeit with 30–60% drawdowns along the way.
Sideways/down case: If liquidity remains tight or regulators clamp down hard, BTC could spend years oscillating below prior highs – or suffer another full‑cycle drawdown – before any new secular advance.

What traders and investors should watch next

Whether you trade short‑term or hold for years, the same watchlist keeps coming up in current research:

Federal Reserve and macro data
- The December policy meeting and incoming inflation/growth prints that could confirm or derail the expected rate cuts. ^[60]
Coinbase Premium & U.S. demand
- Does the premium stay positive and widen, or slip back into discount territory? ^[61]
Spot ETF flows
- Net inflows vs outflows for U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, especially after November’s record outflows. ^[62]
Stablecoin supply and flows
- USDC and USDT mint/burn trends and Binance stablecoin balances as proxies for “dry powder.” ^[63]
Key price levels
- Support: $90K, then $88K, $86.5K and the $84K–$82K band.
- Resistance: $92.5K–$94K, then $95K, and finally $98K–$102K. ^[64]
On‑chain “stress vs euphoria” indicators
- Metrics like MVRV Z‑Score, Puell Multiple and the Fear & Greed Index, which currently lean more toward “fearful but not broken” than “cycle blow‑off top.” ^[65]

Final word: volatility is the feature, not the bug

The last two days of Bitcoin news paint a picture of an asset that is:

Bruised, but not broken after a 36% correction. ^[66]
Deep in “fear” territory by sentiment gauges, even as institutions and whales accumulate. ^[67]
Caught between $80K and $100K in the near term, with credible paths to either side depending on macro and liquidity outcomes. ^[68]

For traders, this environment rewards disciplined risk management and respect for volatile ranges. For long‑term holders, the combination of extreme fear, ongoing institutional interest and still‑elevated multi‑year returns will look familiar from prior cycles – but it comes with no guarantees that history will repeat.