NEW YORK (Dec. 26, 2025) — As of 1:32 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $87,157, down about 1.2% from the prior close, after swinging between roughly $86,670 and $89,416 in today’s session.
That price action is unfolding alongside a notably different mood in U.S. equities: Wall Street is hovering near all‑time highs in thin post‑Christmas trading, with the S&P 500 essentially flat and the Nasdaq slightly higher around late morning, as investors continue to price in a resilient economy and a shifting 2026 policy outlook. [1]
Bitcoin price today: Why BTC is struggling to reclaim $90,000
Bitcoin’s main near-term storyline is the same one traders have been watching for weeks: BTC is still pinned below the psychologically important $90,000 level, with year‑end liquidity conditions limiting follow‑through even when prices bounce. Investing.com described the market as “thin year‑end liquidity,” noting that Bitcoin climbed back toward $89,000 but struggled to break and hold $90,000 as participation remains subdued during the holiday period. [2]
The levels traders are watching right now
While crypto markets don’t share a single “closing bell,” price behavior into the U.S. afternoon tends to matter because it overlaps with peak global liquidity and institutional workflows:
- Resistance zone: ~$90,000 (recent ceiling and a round-number magnet) [3]
- Near-term support zone: mid-to-high $80,000s, with today’s low near ~$86,670
- Volatility risk: elevated year-end positioning and derivatives flows can amplify moves even when spot volume is light [4]
The biggest Bitcoin drivers today: ETF flows + options positioning + holiday liquidity
1) Spot Bitcoin ETFs: outflows are back in the spotlight
A key data point weighing on sentiment is fresh outflows from U.S. spot crypto ETFs heading into the Christmas break.
CoinMarketCap, citing SoSoValue flow data, reported that Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw combined withdrawals of about $232 million on Dec. 24, including $175 million exiting Bitcoin ETFs (with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $91.37 million and Grayscale’s GBTC another $24.62 million). [5]
This matters because, in 2025, ETFs increasingly became the “on‑ramp” for traditional investors. Reuters has also highlighted how flows can flip quickly—turning from tailwind to headwind—citing a stretch in which IBIT saw roughly $2.7 billion in outflows over five weeks through late November in the context of 2025’s pullback. [6]
2) A massive year-end crypto options expiry
Derivatives are another major variable into the final days of 2025.
A Bloomberg report carried by InvestmentNews said about $23 billion in Bitcoin options were set to expire, representing more than half of total open interest on Deribit, the largest Bitcoin options venue—an unusually concentrated event that can amplify volatility as hedges and positions roll off. [7]
3) “Thin tape” conditions can exaggerate moves
Both crypto and stocks are dealing with the same late‑December issue: market depth is thinner than usual as institutional desks are lightly staffed and many portfolios are already positioned for year-end.
Reuters noted “thin post-Christmas trading” in U.S. stocks, while CoinMarketCap’s ETF-flow coverage emphasized that holiday periods can compress trading activity and amplify the impact of individual transactions—making flows look more dramatic than they might in normal conditions. [8]
Wall Street context: Stocks near records, “Santa rally” watch, and a Fed that’s still driving cross‑asset pricing
Stocks: near all-time highs, but conviction is mixed
At 11:42 a.m. ET, Reuters reported the Dow down ~0.13%, the S&P 500 essentially flat, and the Nasdaq up ~0.05%, with the S&P having touched an intraday record earlier in the session. [9]
The broader backdrop remains constructive: Reuters reported the S&P 500 is up nearly 18% in 2025 and the Nasdaq up about 22%, and the benchmark is within ~1% of 7,000, a psychologically significant milestone for equity investors. [10]
AP likewise described quiet post-holiday trading and noted the 2025 equity gains were supported by policy expectations and AI optimism. [11]
The Fed: rate cuts happened — now “how many more?” is the question
For crypto investors, Fed expectations matter because they affect liquidity conditions, the U.S. dollar, and the appeal of non-yielding assets.
Reuters reported the Fed cut rates by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025 to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, and that investors are watching for more clarity in the Fed’s December meeting minutes, due Tuesday next week. [12]
For a real-time read on how interest-rate traders are pricing the path ahead, many market participants reference the CME FedWatch tool, which translates fed funds futures pricing into implied probabilities. [13]
Bitcoin–equities correlation is still part of the story
Bitcoin’s relationship with stocks—especially high‑growth tech and AI—has been a recurring theme in 2025. Reuters has pointed to periods where Bitcoin’s swings highlighted a growing correlation with equities, including AI-linked names, as investors reassess valuations and risk appetite. [14]
That dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin can stall even when stocks are strong: BTC is increasingly “macro-sensitive,” but it also faces crypto-specific flows (ETFs, options expiry, and positioning) that can dominate in the short run.
Policy and institutional headlines shaping crypto sentiment heading into 2026
Big banks keep moving toward crypto rails
Institutional adoption remains a major long-term narrative—even during drawdowns.
Reuters reported that JPMorgan is considering offering crypto trading to institutional clients (still early-stage and dependent on demand, per the report), and noted that Morgan Stanley plans to offer crypto trading on ETrade in the first half of 2026 via Zerohash. [15]
Regulatory posture: more access, more products — and more responsibility on investors
Two Reuters themes have become increasingly prominent in late 2025:
- Crypto industry wins in 2025, uncertainty in 2026: Reuters reported the SEC rescinded some crypto accounting guidance and dismissed lawsuits against major firms, while stablecoin rules advanced—but broader market structure legislation has stalled in the Senate, leaving lingering uncertainty. [16]
- More product choice, higher investor burden: Reuters also reported concerns from advisors about expanding access to complex products tied to crypto and private credit, with one advisor warning, “Something negative will happen…” as retail investors confront risks they may not fully understand. [17]
These policy currents matter for Bitcoin because they influence (1) institutional participation, (2) product availability, and (3) *the speed at which flows can enter—or exit—crypto markets.
Bitcoin forecasts and expert outlooks: where analysts see BTC in 2026
Forecasts vary widely, but several high-profile perspectives are shaping the debate:
Standard Chartered: targets cut in half, but long-term optimism remains
In Reuters’ “Live Markets” coverage, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, said the bank now expects Bitcoin around $100,000 by end‑2025 and $150,000 by end‑2026, both half of prior estimates, with future demand expected to be driven more by ETFs than by companies adding BTC to their balance sheets. Kendrick described the current period as “not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze.” [18]
VanEck: near-term pain, but “buying” into 2026
VanEck’s research has emphasized the push-pull between institutional vehicles and corporate treasuries.
- In its mid‑December “Bitcoin ChainCheck,” VanEck noted Bitcoin was down about 9% over the prior 30 days with volatility elevated, while Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) stepped in as ETP/ETFs retrenched. [19]
- In its 2026 portfolio manager outlook, VanEck wrote that Bitcoin’s weakness reflects softer risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressures, not a “broken thesis,” adding: “We have been buying.” [20]
Galaxy Digital: 2025 ends roughly flat, but structure is improving
Galaxy’s 2026 predictions report framed 2025 as “anticlimactic” on net—despite dramatic swings—writing that Bitcoin looks set to end the year roughly where it started after a strong first 10 months that included an all-time high around $126,080 on Oct. 6. [21]
A wider “consensus band” emerging, with big tail risks
A market outlook published by IG suggested that, while some aggressive targets remain in play, “most serious forecasts” cluster in the $120K–$170K range for 2026, with key risks including ETF outflows and macro reversals. (IG is a trading provider; treat this as market commentary rather than independent research.) [22]
Is the U.S. stock market open right now? Yes — and here’s what matters into the next session anyway
Because it’s 1:32 p.m. ET in New York, the NYSE core trading session (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET) is open as this is written. [23]
Even so, many readers will encounter this update after the close (or from time zones where U.S. markets are shut). Here’s what to know before the next equity session:
- Bitcoin trades 24/7 — stocks don’t. Weekend or after-hours headlines can move BTC before equity investors can react. Watch how BTC behaves during U.S. equity downtime. [24]
- Monitor ETF flow data and year-end positioning. Holiday weeks can distort flows; the question is whether outflows persist once normal liquidity returns. [25]
- Derivatives aftershocks can matter. Large options expiries can shift hedging behavior and volatility after contracts roll off. [26]
- Fed messaging remains the macro catalyst. Investors are watching for fresh clarity on 2026 cuts, including the upcoming Fed minutes Reuters flagged. [27]
- Expect “thin tape” behavior into year-end. Both Reuters and AP emphasized lighter trading conditions after Christmas; that can exaggerate moves across risk assets. [28]
Bottom line
Bitcoin is stuck in a tug-of-war: equities are flirting with new highs, but crypto is dealing with ETF outflows, a major options expiry, and thin year‑end liquidity—a mix that can keep BTC range-bound until participation normalizes. [29]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. coinmarketcap.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.investmentnews.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. apnews.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.cmegroup.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.vaneck.com, 20. www.vaneck.com, 21. www.galaxy.com, 22. www.ig.com, 23. www.nyse.com, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. coinmarketcap.com, 26. www.investmentnews.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com
