Bitcoin Price Today: BTC/USD Holds Near $89K as ETF “Wipeout” Meets Fresh Bank Demand

Bitcoin is closing the first week of December in a tight but nervous range, with BTC/USD trading around $89,200 at the time of writing, down slightly on the day after an intraday high near $90,171 and a low around $88,966.

After a year that saw new all‑time highs near $126,000 followed by a brutal retrace toward $80,000, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is now stuck between powerful macro forces, choppy ETF flows, and surprisingly steady institutional demand. ^[1]

Below is a full rundown of the latest BTC/USD news, forecasts and analyses as of 7 December 2025, with a focus on what traders and investors are watching into the next Fed meeting and year‑end.

Bitcoin price today: BTC/USD stuck below $100K after a volatile week

Through the first week of December, Bitcoin has traded in a broad but indecisive band:

On 1 December, BTC dropped roughly 5–6%, briefly breaking below $86,000 before stabilising. ^[2]
By 5 December, it had recovered to around $92,500, oscillating between $91,000 and $94,000, but still well below the prior push toward six figures. ^[3]
Into 7 December, multiple exchanges show spot prices clustering just under $89,000–$89,500, with relatively modest intraday swings compared with the violent liquidation waves seen in October and November. ^[4]

Analysts describe the current structure as a range-bound market capped near the psychologically important $100,000 level, with buyers repeatedly stepping in on dips toward the mid‑$80Ks but failing to generate a sustained breakout. ^[5]

In other words: BTC/USD is not crashing, but it is not trending cleanly either.

Macro backdrop: rate cuts, a hawkish Japan, and liquidity games

A big part of why Bitcoin feels “stuck” is the macro picture:

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming FOMC meeting, with futures markets pricing a strong probability of easing. Lower rates historically support risk assets and Bitcoin liquidity. ^[6]
India’s central bank has already cut its policy rate and injected around $12 billion of liquidity to offset US tariff effects, another potential tailwind for global risk sentiment. ^[7]
At the same time, the Bank of Japan is preparing a rate hike, which could unwind yen carry trades and drain global liquidity, a clear downside risk for high‑beta assets like BTC. ^[8]

On the more aggressive side of the macro debate, BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes is still calling for Bitcoin at $250,000 by the end of 2025. He argues that:

The recent plunge to around $80,600 was driven not by institutions dumping spot BTC, but by complex basis trades unwinding in Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures.
The end of Fed quantitative tightening, US Treasury debt buybacks, and a shift toward bank‑driven credit growth in 2026 all point to improving dollar liquidity that could fuel a powerful Bitcoin rally. ^[9]

Hayes is at the extreme bullish end of the spectrum, but his thesis highlights the key macro tension: liquidity is starting to improve, yet rate‑path uncertainty and a potentially hawkish BoJ are still capping risk appetite.

ETF flows: a $48B “wipeout” in assets, but demand hasn’t vanished

Spot Bitcoin ETFs were supposed to be the big structural driver of this cycle. In 2025, they delivered – and then stumbled.

Data compiled this week shows:

US spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management (AUM) peaked near $169.5 billion on 6 October.
By 4 December, AUM had fallen to $120.68 billion, a drop of about $48.86 billion, effectively wiping out the year’s asset growth and leaving the complex roughly flat compared with December 2024. ^[10]
Crucially, net creations for 2025 are still positive at about $22.32 billion. The bulk of the AUM decline comes from price moves, not mass redemptions. ^[11]

In other words, ETF shares are still out there, but their dollar value has shrunk with BTC/USD.

There are also signs of stabilization:

A weekly review covering 2–8 December notes that Bitcoin ETFs registered net inflows of about $70.1 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $312.6 million in net inflows – the first positive week since late October. ^[12]
US‑state level interest is quietly building: Texas has purchased around $5 million worth of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and earmarked another $5 million for direct Bitcoin holdings as part of a strategic reserve program. ^[13]

Put simply, ETF capital hasn’t fled the building; it’s just suffering from the same late‑year drawdown as spot BTC.

Banks and institutions: more BTC exposure behind the scenes

While ETF charts look ugly, traditional banks are inching deeper into crypto:

The National Bank of Canada has reportedly acquired about 1.47 million shares of “Strategy” (widely understood as MicroStrategy’s BTC‑heavy stock), worth roughly $273 million, gaining indirect exposure to Bitcoin’s balance‑sheet play. ^[14]
France’s BPCE Group, the country’s third‑largest bank, is starting to let retail clients buy BTC, ETH, SOL and USDC, initially for about 2 million customers in select regions. ^[15]
In the US, Bank of America will reportedly allow financial advisers to recommend Ethereum to clients from 5 January, signalling growing institutional comfort not just with BTC but also large‑cap smart‑contract platforms. ^[16]

On the corporate side, on‑chain and treasury tracking shows public companies now holding over 1 million BTC, with one firm (Strategy/MicroStrategy) alone controlling around 650,000 BTC. ^[17]

This concentration of Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets acts as a kind of liquidity floor: it is harder to engineer the extreme 70–80% drawdowns seen in prior cycles when so much supply is effectively locked in long‑term hands. ^[18]

Altcoin ETFs boom, but Bitcoin keeps the “compliance premium”

The ETF story is no longer just about BTC and ETH. Over the past month:

At least eight spot altcoin ETFs – covering Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Litecoin, Hedera and others – have launched on major US exchanges, attracting more than $700 million in cumulative inflows. ^[19]
Yet many of these altcoins are down more than 20% over the same period, a classic “buy the rumour, sell the news” reaction in crypto. ^[20]

Analysts note that despite the new altcoin products, liquidity, depth and regulatory clarity still strongly favour Bitcoin and Ethereum. BTC remains the primary collateral asset in crypto finance, and together with ETH sits atop what some commentators call the “first tier” ETF asset set – tokens with compliant fiat on‑ramps and broad institutional access. ^[21]

This hierarchy matters for BTC/USD because it underlines a key point: even as capital experiments with altcoin ETFs, Bitcoin still anchors the regulated crypto universe.

Sentiment: 171 red days, fear – but not panic

A widely shared analysis on 7 December highlighted that Bitcoin has logged 171 negative days in 2025, just above its historical average of 170 “red” days per year. Such years tend to finish relatively sideways, not in explosive rallies or collapses. ^[22]

Other notable data points:

30‑day volatility has climbed to around 0.024, breaching the upper end of its one‑year range for the first time since early 2024 – a sign that a new volatility phase may be starting after months of calm. ^[23]
Bitcoin’s year‑to‑date drawdown sits near 25%, much milder than the 70–80% washouts seen in prior bear markets. ^[24]
The Fear & Greed Index has been stuck in “fear” at a level of 21 for five straight weeks, echoing an earlier fear cluster in Q1 2025 that eventually gave way to a move higher. ^[25]

Zooming out to the broader market, total crypto capitalization is about $3.05 trillion, with sentiment skewed risk‑off and a relatively low “altcoin season index,” suggesting Bitcoin and a handful of majors are still dominating flows. ^[26]

So, the mood is gloomy – but not outright capitulation.

Technical picture: BTC/USD boxed between $80K support and $94K resistance

From a technical analysis perspective, several independent desks are describing a similar range structure:

A detailed update on 7 December from a Binance‑affiliated analyst notes BTC has been consolidating between roughly $81,000 and $89,000, with the nearest resistance zone in the $88,000–$94,000 band. The $100,000 level remains the key psychological ceiling. ^[27]
Local support is seen around $82,000, with a deeper support cluster at $74,000–$76,000 that would likely correspond to “deeply oversold” conditions similar to April 2022 if tested. ^[28]
Indicators such as the daily RSI have crawled out of the oversold area into the 30–40 range, while MACD remains below zero but with shrinking negative momentum – a classic portrait of weakening bearish pressure without a confirmed reversal. ^[29]

Other technical houses broadly agree:

A 1 December forecast from DailyForex highlighted structural resistance around $92,500–$94,000, warning that failure to break that band could either lock BTC into a range between $80,000 and $92,500 or trigger another leg down if $80K finally gives way. ^[30]
Bitazza’s weekly technical outlook similarly places support at $80,000 and resistance near $90,000, suggesting traders treat a clean break below $80K as a signal that the downtrend is resuming, and a sustained move back above $90K as an early sign of bullish reversal. ^[31]
Quant models from StockInvest characterize BTC/USD as sitting in the middle of a wide, falling short‑term trend, projecting a possible 23% decline over the next three months, with a 90% confidence band between roughly $60,900 and $79,400 if current conditions persist. Near‑term, they expected today’s trading range to span about $87,900–$90,965. ^[32]

Put together, the chart narrative is clear:
BTC/USD is compressing between heavy resistance just under six figures and a thick layer of support in the low‑$80Ks. Until one of those walls breaks convincingly, traders should expect messy, headline‑driven swings rather than a smooth trend.

Short‑term BTC/USD forecasts: sideways chop with event‑risk spikes

Analysts tracking the next few days to weeks are split, but some common threads are emerging:

Range‑bound base case: Several desks argue that unless macro surprises hit, Bitcoin is likely to oscillate between $80,000 and $95,000, with liquidity thinning into year‑end and intraday moves driven by ETF flow data and central bank headlines. ^[33]
Mildly bearish probability skew: Systematic models like StockInvest’s point to a negative drift, with the short‑term trend still pointing lower and falling volume on green days hinting at weak follow‑through from buyers. ^[34]
Bounce scenarios: CoindCX’s 6 December outlook emphasized a sharp rebound back above $93,000, noting improving MACD momentum and suggesting a 3–5% recovery over the next week, potentially retesting the $98,000–$99,500 zone if selling pressure eases. ^[35]

Macro event risk is front and centre:

The Fed’s rate decision, the Bank of Japan’s meeting, and other central‑bank moves flagged for 8–10 December are likely to inject short bursts of volatility. Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity expectations means a surprise cut or hawkish tilt could easily knock BTC/USD out of its recent micro‑range, even if the broader structure remains intact. ^[36]

In short, the consensus for the very near term is choppy sideways action, with sharp but brief spikes in either direction around macro news.

Medium‑ and long‑term scenarios for BTC/USD (2025–2026)

Beyond the day‑to‑day noise, current research sketches three broad paths for BTC/USD.

1. The super‑bullish liquidity wave

Arthur Hayes’s $250,000 by year‑end 2025 target is the most headline‑grabbing. It assumes:
- Liquidity continues to improve as QT ends and Treasury operations ease strain on dollar markets.
- Bank lending in 2026 amplifies credit creation without triggering runaway inflation.
- ETF and institutional flows resume once volatility shakes out over‑leveraged players. ^[37]

Under this scenario, the recent dip to the $80K zone is a cycle bottom, and today’s ~$89K prices would look like a late‑stage discount.

2. The measured bullish continuation

CoindCX’s modelling is more restrained but still optimistic:
- For December 2025, it envisions an 18–22% rise toward $112,000–$116,000, assuming ETF inflows stabilize, macro conditions don’t deteriorate, and on‑chain activity stays healthy. ^[38]
- In an even more constructive scenario, with strong ETF demand returning, they see potential extensions toward $130,000–$140,000 by the end of 2025. ^[39]

Here, BTC/USD grinds higher, but in a far more orderly and institutionally‑driven fashion than past retail manias.

3. The flat or modest‑return outcome

A long‑running quantitative forecast from Changelly projects a much more muted profile:
- For December 2025, it expects Bitcoin to trade in a narrow range around $89,000, with an average price near $89,356 and essentially flat returns versus today’s levels. ^[40]
Other sophisticated analyses of liquidity and the US dollar index (DXY) warn that while Bitcoin may eventually reclaim and surpass its highs, more sideways chop and sharp corrections are likely before a durable move to new records. ^[41]

This conservative path lines up with data about 171 red days, modest net ETF inflows, and a corporate‑supported floor: the market absorbs shocks, but fireworks are postponed.

Key risks and catalysts for BTC/USD

Across all scenarios, several recurring risk factors and catalysts stand out:

Central bank policy:
- Faster‑than‑expected rate cuts and expanded liquidity programs could refuel the Bitcoin narrative.
- Conversely, a more aggressive BoJ or renewed inflation surprises could strengthen the dollar and pressure BTC/USD. ^[42]
ETF flow momentum:
- Sustained net inflows – like this week’s tentative positive turn in BTC and ETH ETFs – would reinforce the bullish structural case.
- A re‑acceleration of outflows, especially from major US spot funds, would underline the bearish short‑term models. ^[43]
Regulatory moves:
- China has reiterated that cryptocurrencies have no legal tender status and remain banned on the mainland, while the EU’s MiCA framework is actively shaping compliant stablecoin growth. ^[44]
- In the US, the SEC has approved “universal listing standards” that paved the way for multiple altcoin ETFs, while simultaneously pushing back on more exotic leveraged products. ^[45]
Corporate behaviour:
- Public companies and banks that have accumulated significant BTC exposure – via spot holdings, MSTR, or ETFs – could become forced sellers if their own balance sheets come under stress, turning today’s floor into tomorrow’s overhang. ^[46]

Bottom line: BTC/USD is balanced on a tightrope of fear and structural support

As of 7 December 2025, BTC/USD is trading around $89K, sandwiched between a thick mat of institutional support and equally thick layers of macro uncertainty and technical resistance.

The bearish case points to a falling short‑term trend, ETF AUM “wipeout,” and the risk of a breakdown toward the $70K–$80K zone if $80K fails. ^[47]
The bullish case leans on improving liquidity, fresh inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs, and a deepening network of bank and corporate holders who appear more inclined to accumulate dips than abandon the asset class. ^[48]

For now, the data still supports a simple conclusion:

Bitcoin’s 2025 narrative is not a blow‑off top or a brutal winter, but a high‑stakes pause.

Price is sideways, volatility is re‑awakening, and the real fireworks – whether toward $60K or $200K – likely depend on how the next wave of liquidity, regulation, and institutional behaviour plays out.