Key Facts: As of Oct 29, 2025, Bitcoin trades around $113,000 [1] [2] (roughly –0.5% on the day). Over the past week it has rallied about 5% from mid-month lows [3]. In early October BTC hit an all-time high near $125K, then plunged below $105K during trade-war jitters (liquidating ~$19B in leveraged bets) [4]. Since mid-October Bitcoin has climbed roughly 10% back toward ~$114K [5]. Major drivers include a likely Fed rate cut (25 bps expected at the Oct.29 FOMC) and easing U.S.–China trade tensions [6] [7]. Market sentiment swung from “Extreme Fear” mid-month (fear/greed ~24) back toward neutral [8]. Other large cryptocurrencies are also up: Ethereum ≈ $4,000 (–1.4% 24h) [9], Solana ≈ $195 (–2.1%) [10], XRP ≈ $2.62 (–0.35%) [11], Dogecoin ≈ $0.195 [12]. Equity markets have rallied on trade optimism – Citi reports crypto’s correlation with U.S. stocks has tightened as volatility returned [13]. Analysts are divided: bullish forecasts see Bitcoin in the $130K–$200K range in 2026 [14] [15], while some caution it could fall back into the $70K–$80K zone in a prolonged downturn [16] [17].
Current Price and Recent Trend
Bitcoin’s spot price is roughly $113K on Oct. 29, 2025 [18] [19]. YCharts data shows BTC at about $112,950 (down ~1.1% from $114,183 on Oct. 28) [20], while other sources report ~$113,272 on Wednesday [21]. In context, BTC jumped to a record ~$125K on Oct. 5 [22], then suddenly crashed in mid-October. On Oct. 10 the market was hit by U.S.–China tariff shock – Bitcoin plunged to around $104,782 in a single day [23], a move that wiped out $19+ billion in leveraged crypto positions [24]. That panic drove sentiment into “Extreme Fear” (fear/greed index ~24) [25].
By Oct. 12 buyers began to step back in, and BTC stabilized around $111–112K (roughly 10% off its peak) [26]. Over the past two weeks Bitcoin has “steadily ground its way back up,” recovering about +10% from its mid-month low [27]. As of Oct. 28–29 it trades in the $112K–115K range [28] [29] – a level not seen since early October. In short, Bitcoin has rebounded but remains below the early-Oct high; the latest uptick brings it “within striking distance of its record high” [30] and above the cost-basis of many late entrants, easing some selling pressure [31].
Major News and Macroeconomic Drivers
Two headline events have shaped Bitcoin’s price in recent weeks:
- Federal Reserve policy: The U.S. Fed has shifted to a dovish stance. After cutting rates 25 bps in September 2025 (the first cut of the year), markets overwhelmingly expect another 0.25% cut on Oct. 29 [32]. Fed futures put the odds of an October cut well above 95% [33]. A rate cut tends to weaken the dollar and lower borrowing costs – conditions that boost risk assets. As analysts note, “a weaker dollar and lower rates are generally tailwinds for Bitcoin, pushing investors toward alternatives” [34]. In other words, Fed easing and roughly 3% U.S. inflation support Bitcoin’s appeal as a scarce, inflation-hedge asset [35].
- U.S.–China trade outlook: Early October was rocked by a 100% Chinese tariff threat from President Trump, which spooked all risk markets. Crypto sold off sharply (“crypto’s ‘Black Friday’” coinciding with U.S.-China sell-off) [36], pushing BTC down ~8.4% in one evening to ~$104K [37]. In the weeks since, rhetoric has flipped to trade optimism. Both U.S. and Chinese officials have signaled progress toward a deal to avert the tariff crisis, and President Trump expressed confidence about a deal [38]. Those developments fueled a broad market rally – U.S. stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq) hit record highs on trade-deal buzz [39], and Bitcoin followed suit, even briefly spiking above $116K on Oct. 26–27 [40]. As Bloomberg notes, U.S.-China truce hopes “stoked optimism” across markets [41], giving BTC a lift alongside equities.
Other factors include ETF inflows and policy. Crypto ETFs saw record-buying in early October (nearly $6 billion inflows in the week to Oct. 4, ~ $3.5B into BTC ETFs) [42], which helped drive the early-month rally. Institutional crypto holdings are at all-time highs (≈12% of Bitcoin supply held by funds and public companies) [43]. The crypto-friendly U.S. regulatory environment (spot ETF approvals, favorable comments from officials, and President Trump’s own crypto-positive stance) has also underpinned bullish sentiment [44]. On the flip side, U.S. political uncertainty – a partial government shutdown since Oct. 1 – has in some views acted as a tailwind for Bitcoin (increasing safe-haven bids) [45].
Expert Commentary and Forecasts
Analysts’ views span a wide range. At one extreme, Standard Chartered’s digital-asset team (Geoffrey Kendrick) reaffirmed a $200,000 year-end BTC target on Oct. 2 [46], noting that ongoing ETF inflows and U.S. policy risks could power Bitcoin past its all-time high soon. Similarly, Citigroup analysts expect a “$130K+” Bitcoin within the next year [47]. Other Wall Street forecasters echo this: in mid-October, some models saw Bitcoin reaching $120K–125K or higher if bullish trends continue [48] [49]. Technical analysts also see upside: one crypto blog predicts that holding above ~$115K would confirm a bullish channel and potentially launch BTC toward $118–125K in coming weeks [50].
However, caution is advised by other experts. Elliott-wave analyst Jon Glover (Ledn CIO) warned on Oct. 28 that the five-wave rally may be complete and a long bear market is starting. He forecast a drop to $70K–$80K (35% below then-$108K) over the next 1–2 years [51]. Others note that a severe downturn could plunge Bitcoin toward $60K–$80K if macro shocks worsen [52] [53]. Even crypto advocate Robert Kiyosaki publicly warned of a “massive crash” scenario (while still advising holding some crypto as an inflation hedge) [54]. Citi’s models also warn that if the rally fails, BTC could slump to ~$80K in a recession scenario [55].
In sum, experts see high volatility ahead. Bullish bets hinge on continued Fed easing and institutional demand; bearish views point to possible global headwinds. Market participants are watching key levels ($105K support, $118–125K resistance) and the Fed’s Oct. 29 statement. As one crypto commentator put it, the Fed cut might be “the nudge that forces another run,” but only time will tell [56] [57].
Crypto Market & Altcoins
Bitcoin’s action is mirrored by other top cryptos. Ethereum (ETH) recently regained above $4,000, up about 3–4% over the week [58] [59] after a mid-month dip (~$3,637 on Oct. 10) [60]. Solana (SOL), another leading token, sits near $195–200 [61] [62], having “doubled from summer lows” and cleared $200 once again [63]. XRP (Ripple) trades around $2.62 [64]. Other markets: the crypto Fear & Greed index, which measures sentiment, tumbled into “fear” territory after the Oct. 10 crash, but has since rebounded into neutral (around 50–55) [65]. Total crypto market capitalization is approaching $3.8–3.9 trillion [66], near year-to-date highs as confidence returns.
In general, altcoins have followed Bitcoin’s lead. Lower rates and bullish sentiment are expected to revive capital flows into riskier “meme” and small-cap tokens next (a so-called “meme season” after rate cuts) [67]. However, most analysts caution that volatility will remain high for all crypto assets in the near term.
Stock Market Impact and Correlation
Equity markets have been rallying on the same macro news – trade optimism and Fed easing – and crypto has moved more in sync with stocks. Citi analysts note that crypto’s correlation with U.S. equities has tightened in recent weeks [68]. The Oct. 10 sell-off (caused by trade fears) hit both stocks and crypto alike, evidence that “equities remain the main macro force behind crypto moves” [69]. In late October, U.S. stock indices notched record highs as trade-deal hopes buoyed risk appetite [70], and Bitcoin roughly tagged along, briefly hitting $116K on Oct. 27 before settling back. In short, Bitcoin is trading increasingly like a risk asset: it benefits when stocks rally (as seen this week) but also suffers during broad market stress (as in mid-October) [71] [72].
Outlook
Near-term, much depends on the Fed. A confirmed rate cut on Oct. 29 is broadly priced in, which could spark another leg up for Bitcoin if combined with positive trade or ETF news [73] [74]. Key resistance sits around $118K–$125K; breaking those levels could target new highs, while failure to hold current support (~$105K–$110K) might lead to a pullback into the $104K–$108K zone [75]. In our sources, analysts mention $118K, $120K and even ~$123K as near-term goals if bullish catalysts persist [76] [77].
Over the medium term (weeks to months), forecasts diverge widely. Bullish scenarios assume continued Fed easing, strong inflows, and regulatory tailwinds – in that case, Bitcoin could breach six figures again. Standard Chartered sees ~$200K by end-2025 [78], and Ark Invest or similar models project well above $200K by late 2026 [79]. Bearish scenarios cite slowing growth or policy setbacks: if markets sour or Fed pivots unexpectedly, Bitcoin could revisit its summer support around $80–$90K or lower [80] [81]. A balanced middle view – supported by on-chain metrics and macro fundamentals – suggests Bitcoin may range roughly $100K–$150K through 2025, tilting upward if more institutions pile in [82] [83].
For now, traders and investors are watching the Fed meeting, China trade talks, and upcoming earnings in traditional markets. As one market report notes, a confirmed dovish Fed could again “easily trigger crypto’s next leg up” and even put Bitcoin on track for a new all-time high [84]. But others urge caution, pointing to historical patterns: in a sense, the question is which path Bitcoin will follow next – green or red.
Sources: Multiple crypto market reports and expert analyses as of Oct. 29, 2025 [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90]. These include data from CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, 99Bitcoins, CoinDesk, TS2.Tech, and others; all details above are drawn from the latest news and analyst commentary.
References
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