Warsaw, Feb 3, 2026, 14:46 CET — Premarket.
- Bitcoin inched higher on Tuesday, recovering slightly after a weekend drop and a spike in forced selling.
- Bernstein projects bitcoin may hit a low near $60,000 in early 2026, then start to rebound.
- CoinShares data revealed $1.7 billion in weekly outflows from digital-asset products, with bitcoin taking the biggest hit.
Bitcoin nudged higher Tuesday after Wall Street research firm Bernstein laid out a 2026 forecast that begins with downturns but finishes on a strong recovery.
Bernstein analysts, headed by Gautam Chhugani, suggest Bitcoin might find a bottom near its previous cycle peak around $60,000 before staging a rebound. They argue that shifts in policy and ongoing institutional interest could support what they dub Bitcoin’s “most consequential cycle.” “We just don’t see a passive U.S. government if the digital asset markets keep sliding,” the team noted. FXStreet
Why it matters now: fund flows and positioning have become the market’s daily signal—and the data looks grim.
Digital asset investment products recorded $1.7 billion in outflows last week, according to CoinShares. Bitcoin products alone accounted for $1.32 billion of that, driven by a more hawkish Federal Reserve chair and “whale selling” linked to the four-year market cycle, the firm said. CoinShares
Leverage unwound rapidly. Bitcoin investors dumped $2.56 billion in recent days, according to CoinGlass data cited by Reuters, as the selloff bled into wider risk markets. Adam McCarthy, senior research analyst at Kaiko, said investors are “taking a step back” to rethink their risk approaches. Bitfinex analysts highlighted thin weekend liquidity as a factor that worsened the drop, while David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, noted investors “were looking for an excuse to lighten up and they finally got several.” Reuters
Bitcoin climbed 0.5% to $78,234, bouncing after fluctuating between $77,611 and $79,155 earlier. The cryptocurrency is roughly 10% lower year-to-date and sits about 38% below its October high near $126,000. It dipped to $74,553 on Monday before recovering, Barron’s reported.
ETF flows have shifted once more. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds—those holding actual bitcoin—raked in $561.8 million in net inflows on Feb. 2. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $142.0 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC pulled in $153.3 million, according to data from Farside Investors.
Corporate balance sheets remain in focus. Strategy, the firm famed for its bitcoin stash, recently added 855 bitcoins, paying an average of $87,974 each. That brings their total to 713,502 coins, with an average cost of $76,052 per coin. Jim Bianco from Bianco Research pointed out that Strategy and large bitcoin ETFs like IBIT share a combined average buy-in of $85,360, .
The downside risk remains. A fresh wave of risk-off trading or another round of ETF selling might drag bitcoin back to levels that trigger forced deleveraging, especially since sentiment is already shaky following the sharp fall from late-2025 highs.
The U.S. January employment report, set to drop on Feb. 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET, won’t arrive on time. The Labor Department said the partial federal government shutdown is holding it back. Markets will have to wait for a new release date once the agency reopens.
