London, Jan 12, 2026, 08:25 GMT — Regular session.
- BP shares climbed in early London trading following Friday’s close.
- Crude prices held firm amid new concerns over Iran’s supply, though gains were capped by Venezuela’s output limits.
- Investors are balancing immediate geopolitical risks with banks’ predictions of a surplus in 2026.
BP shares edged up 0.35% to 427.1 pence early Monday in London, following a Friday close at 425.6 pence. The stock fluctuated between 425.4 and 428.7 pence during the session. 1
Oil gave the sector a modest boost. Brent crude futures ticked up 5 cents to $63.39 a barrel by 0433 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 4 cents to $59.16. Unrest in Iran sparked renewed concerns over supply, even as traders considered how quickly Venezuelan exports might resume. “The market is saying show me the disruption to supply before materially responding,” noted Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee. Meanwhile, ANZ analysts led by Daniel Hynes warned that 1.9 million barrels per day of Iranian exports were at risk. 2
Goldman Sachs projects a 2.3 million-barrel-per-day surplus by 2026, maintaining its Brent average forecast at $56 a barrel. Prices are expected to dip to $54 in the fourth quarter as OECD inventories rise. The bank also advised producers to hedge against potential downside risks. 3
For BP, that blend is crucial since its share price still acts as a rough stand-in. Even a slight tweak in the oil “deck”—the price assumptions analysts feed into their models—can tighten earnings estimates and limit the capacity for cash returns.
The tug-of-war is familiar: geopolitics push crude prices higher in the near term, while surplus chatter drags down the longer outlook. Investors must choose what to back—and what to dismiss.
BP’s daily performance usually mirrors oil prices more closely than many other FTSE stocks. When refining margins lag, investors focus directly on upstream cash flow instead.
The downside is straightforward. Should Iran’s exports continue unabated and Venezuelan oil re-enter the market quicker than anticipated, crude prices could drift toward the lower end of forecasts — with BP likely to follow suit.
Traders want proof that supply risks actually lead to lost barrels—not just flashy headlines. On the other hand, steady tanker shipments would back up the surplus story.
BP will report its fourth-quarter results and announce its dividend on Feb. 10, as noted in its financial calendar. 4
