London, Jan 26, 2026, 08:13 GMT — Regular session
BP shares climbed early Monday in London, gaining roughly 1% to hit 448.05 pence, up from Friday’s 443.65 close. The price fluctuated between 446.65 and 449.30 pence on volume near 1 million. 1
This week, energy stocks are following oil and gas prices more closely than any corporate announcements. With BP’s earnings report on the horizon, even minor changes in crude prices are getting amplified.
Oil prices pushed higher after gaining more than 2% on Friday, driven by winter storm Fern cutting U.S. output and escalating geopolitical tensions. Brent crude added 0.7% to $66.30 a barrel as of 0721 GMT. Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva noted the market was being “tickled” by ongoing U.S. disruptions and lingering risks, while IG analyst Tony Sycamore highlighted a fresh “risk premium” linked to Iran. 2
Gas markets showed sharp moves as well. U.S. natural gas futures jumped nearly 70% in the last week, hitting $5.35 per million British thermal units, the typical measure for gas prices. Output is being squeezed by freeze-offs, and Baringa partner Mashal Jaffery noted the market is now “far more interconnected.” 3
BP’s earnings and guidance hinge directly on the commodity environment. In its fourth-quarter trading update this month, the company said upstream production would hold steady compared to the previous quarter, but highlighted weak oil trading results. It also warned of post-tax impairment charges between $4 billion and $5 billion, mostly linked to transition businesses, with net debt forecasted at $22 billion to $23 billion. 4
The emphasis stays on cash flow and balance-sheet gains, not just headline profit. Traders will be watching to see if the boost from higher prices can counterbalance the weaker areas BP has already flagged.
That said, the situation works both ways. Should U.S. output bounce back swiftly once the weather clears, or if tensions in the Middle East ease off, crude prices could retreat — and the major oil stocks tend to fall in step.
Shell and TotalEnergies often move together within the same range as oil prices and refining margins fluctuate, so the sector usually shifts in unison even if individual company updates are scarce.
BP’s next major event is its fourth-quarter and full-year results, due Feb. 10. Investors want clarity on potential write-downs, trading results, and the impact on shareholder returns. RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria described the recent update as management’s initial move to “clear the decks.” 5
