London, March 4, 2026, 07:51 GMT — Premarket
BP (BP.L) heads into Wednesday’s London session under the spotlight, with Brent crude up 3.3% at $84.07 a barrel. Traders are watching fallout from the U.S.-Israeli standoff with Iran, which has rattled the oil market. “The primary near-term driver for oil prices remains the US-Iran conflict,” noted OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong. Investors are also waiting for the latest U.S. crude stockpile numbers, set for release later on Wednesday. Reuters
BP shares closed Tuesday 1.1% higher at 493.00 pence, standing out as energy prices spiked and fresh inflation jitters gripped the market. The FTSE 100 slid 2.8%, marking its steepest single-day loss in almost a year, Reuters noted, as investors trimmed expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. “If higher energy prices squeeze real incomes and prevent the Bank from cutting rates, hopes would be dashed,” said David Rees, head of global economics at Schroders. Hargreaves Lansdown
Iraq has become the latest hotspot. Two oil officials told Reuters the country slashed output by almost 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), and they cautioned that cuts might surge past 3 million bpd in just days if export routes remain shut. BP, a stakeholder in one of Iraq’s joint ventures, said it’s doing everything necessary to back its partners.
J.P. Morgan analysts are warning Iraq and Kuwait could be forced to halt crude output within days if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed—3.3 million bpd could come offline by the eighth day of conflict. The bank projects a longer disruption would push losses to 3.8 million bpd at around day 15, then hit 4.7 million bpd by day 18.
Strategists are sounding more direct alarms about price swings. Citi put Brent in an $80-$90 band for the next week, but cautioned that prices might slide to $70 if tensions subside. Wood Mackenzie sees a path to $100 oil if tanker movement through Hormuz doesn’t resume soon. Macquarie’s Vikas Dwivedi weighed in, saying the global system could cope with a one- or two-week disruption—but warned the fallout would “escalate rapidly” beyond that. Reuters
Derivatives markets lit up Monday, with a record 12.7 million energy futures and options contracts changing hands on Intercontinental Exchange, according to ICE. Crude spiked, prompting hedgers and speculators alike to scramble for price protection.
BP disclosed in a separate filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that, as of Feb. 28, it had 15,700,469,813 ordinary shares outstanding, not counting shares held in treasury. The company reported 785,843,181 treasury shares—stock BP has repurchased and now retains, which aren’t entitled to dividends or votes. Total voting rights, according to the filing, stood at 15,705,552,313.
BP shareholders are still weighing the company’s approach to cash returns and its capacity to manage debt. Just last month, BP hit pause on its $750 million quarterly buybacks, opting to focus on reducing net debt—reported at $22 billion. The company is sticking with its plan to bring that down to somewhere between $14 billion and $18 billion by 2027. Chief financial officer Kate Thomson indicated that BP could revisit buybacks if and when it gets net debt within that target range. While BP is on hold, Shell and Exxon haven’t budged on their own buyback programs, Reuters noted.
The setup isn’t one-sided. If tensions ease or shipping lanes reopen convincingly, crude’s “war premium” could unwind fast, pulling energy stocks like BP back from their latest surge.
Right now, traders are tracking tanker news and waiting for official inventory updates due later. Coming up: BP’s annual general meeting lands on March 31, with Q1 earnings queued for April 28.
