London, February 1, 2026, 08:21 GMT — The market has closed.
- On Friday, BP shares closed at 463.8 pence, marking a 0.25% increase.
- Union workers at BP’s Whiting refinery turned down a proposed 28-day contract extension.
- Oil is hovering close to six-month highs, with an OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday dominating the week ahead.
BP shares head into Monday’s trading as investors focus on potential labour issues at the Whiting refinery in Indiana. Union workers there have turned down a proposed 28-day contract extension. The union stressed there’s “no intent to have a work stoppage,” while BP insisted it is negotiating “in good faith.” The stock closed Friday at 463.8 pence, up 1.15 pence, or 0.25%. Reuters
Timing is key as crude continues to support integrated oil majors, with prices holding firm. Brent closed Friday at $70.69 a barrel, while U.S. crude finished at $65.21. “It’s really all about Iran right now,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital. Reuters
A second factor comes into play this weekend. OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, are expected to maintain their current halt on raising output for March, sources told Reuters ahead of Sunday’s meeting—despite Brent crude holding above $70.
BP highlighted ongoing backing from its buyback. A regulatory filing revealed the company purchased 2,825,577 ordinary shares last Friday under a share repurchase programme launched in November. The average price paid was around 460.25 pence, with individual prices between 455.80 pence and 464.40 pence.
The Whiting dispute is unfolding amid broader U.S. refinery talks that have kept markets on edge. The United Steelworkers announced an extension in talks with Marathon Petroleum, which also negotiates on behalf of Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Valero Energy. Sources close to the discussions say sticking points include cost-of-living adjustments, healthcare, and rules around AI use in plants. Marathon’s spokesperson Jamal Kheiry said the company remains “committed to bargaining in good faith.” Reuters
BP is set to unveil its quarterly results next, with fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 figures scheduled for release at 0700 GMT on Feb. 10. A webcast will follow later that same day.
Traders have a straightforward checklist. Any sign of a strike or lockout at Whiting will immediately impact Midwest fuel supply and refinery run rates. Meanwhile, oil’s price movement continues to dictate upstream cash flow and shareholder returns.
The oil story isn’t one-sided, especially if fears of a surplus return. A Reuters poll of economists and analysts predicts Brent will average around $62 a barrel in 2026. Norbert Ruecker from Julius Baer weighed in, saying “the oil market appears to be in a lasting surplus.” Reuters
BP shares frequently act as a stand-in for the broader sector when macro shifts hit, with a $5 swing in Brent crude overshadowing much of the company-specific chatter. That said, labour news can still hit hard—especially if it starts to signal actual lost barrels instead of just heated negotiations.
BP trading picks back up Monday. Investors will digest Sunday’s OPEC+ decision and any news from Whiting first. Then, all eyes turn to BP’s February 10 earnings, which will reveal details on cash flow, buybacks, and refining results for the quarter.
