NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 06:43 ET — Market closed
- U.S. forces struck Venezuela on Saturday; President Donald Trump said Nicolas Maduro had been captured.
- Reuters sources said PDVSA’s oil production and refining were operating normally after the attacks.
- BP’s U.S.-listed shares last closed up 3.17% at $35.83, leaving the next move tied to crude when futures reopen.
The United States carried out military strikes in Venezuela on Saturday and President Donald Trump said Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro had been captured, setting up a potentially volatile start to the week for oil-linked stocks such as BP. “Oil prices were likely to jump on the near-term risk to supply,” said Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee. 1
The market is closed for the weekend, so the first real-time test will come from crude futures when trading resumes, followed by Monday’s cash equity open. For BP, the immediate question is whether the attacks translate into disrupted barrels or fade into a short-lived geopolitical risk premium — the extra price traders pay to cover disruption risk.
Early signals were mixed. Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA saw no damage to its key facilities and was producing and refining normally after an initial assessment, two sources familiar with operations said. 2
Supply risk has already been a market theme. U.S. sanctions and recent seizures of oil tankers have halved Venezuela’s normal oil export rate, Reuters reported on Friday, though U.S. major Chevron has kept exporting Venezuelan oil under a special U.S. license. 3
BP’s U.S.-listed shares (ADRs, receipts that track the company’s London-listed stock) rose 3.17% on Friday to $35.83, MarketWatch reported, leaving the stock about 4.8% below its 52-week high of $37.64. BP outpaced peers such as Exxon Mobil and Eni in the same session, while trading volume ran slightly above its recent average, the report showed. 4
Oil started 2026 on the back foot. Brent crude futures closed down 10 cents at $60.75 a barrel on Friday and U.S. West Texas Intermediate eased 10 cents to $57.32, as investors weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks that already included Venezuela. 5
Another near-term swing factor lands on Sunday: OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies led by Russia, is due to meet. Delegates told Reuters they expect the group’s core eight members to maintain steady output policy for the first quarter. 6
That sets the near-term BP stock forecast up as a two-part trade: crude first, then sentiment. A sharp oil bounce would typically lift integrated majors like BP, while a muted move in crude would likely drag attention back to the wider supply picture and the sector’s earnings season.
Before next session, traders will watch crude futures pricing for a spike — and whether it holds — alongside any confirmation of disruptions to Venezuelan exports. PDVSA’s early assessment of “normal” operations argues against an immediate supply shock, but headlines can move prices fast when liquidity returns.
Before next session, BP investors also have a fresh regulatory datapoint. A U.S. filing dated Jan. 2 showed BP had 857.4 million ordinary shares held in treasury — shares held by the company and typically excluded from dividend and voting calculations — alongside updated total voting rights. 7
Before next session, attention turns to the next known company catalyst: BP’s fourth-quarter and full-year results, listed for Feb. 10 on the company’s financial calendar. Investors will be watching cash flow resilience around $60 Brent, capital returns, and any guidance that ties buybacks and dividends to the oil price tape. 8
On the chart, BP enters Monday below resistance near its 52-week high of $37.64, with a near-term floor traders often watch around the prior close area ($34.73) and the $35 handle, a common psychological level. A clean break in either direction is likely to track crude’s next leg rather than company-specific news over the weekend. 9
