London, March 3, 2026, 18:31 GMT — Trading after hours.
- Brent crude pushed higher for a third straight session, with traders factoring in renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.
- Standard Chartered bumped up its 2026 Brent projection, cautioning there’s asymmetric upside risk should disruptions widen.
- Tanker insurance, rerouting options, and potential U.S. emergency moves all drew close attention from markets.
Brent crude futures jumped roughly 6% to $82.38 a barrel as of 1749 GMT Tuesday, sticking close to their multi-month highs. Standard Chartered hiked its forecast for Brent in the first quarter to $74 a barrel, up from $62, and boosted its 2026 average projection to $70 from $63.50, after the latest bout of unrest in the Middle East. The bank noted that “the forward curve has strengthened notably,” pointing out the market’s willingness to pay a premium for prompt barrels over later delivery. Reuters
The significance comes into sharp relief as the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran snarls fuel flows and sends shipping firms and insurers scrambling. About 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas usually moves through the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck that traders can’t seem to ignore.
Producer data is now reflecting real supply losses, moving past just speculation. Iraq has slashed output by close to 1.5 million barrels a day, unable to get crude out. Two Iraqi oil officials warned the cuts might swell to over 3 million bpd in the next few days if the disruption continues.
Brent’s recent rally pushed past Monday’s settle at $77.74, and on Tuesday the contract bounced around, trading anywhere from about $78 up to $85 per barrel, based on exchange-linked pricing data. Swings that wide usually spark extra hedging, and margin calls pile up—hardly a recipe for quiet trading.
Saudi Aramco is shifting some crude shipments to the Red Sea, telling certain customers to take delivery at Yanbu, according to people with knowledge of the situation. “There are logistical trade-offs involved,” said Richard Bronze, co-founder at Energy Aspects, citing limits tied to pipelines and terminals. Reuters
Washington is getting involved on the price front. President Donald Trump was set to consider measures to rein in energy costs—among them, according to two sources, a plan for the U.S. to support tanker insurance in the region. Trump told reporters, “as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio added: “Starting tomorrow you will see us rolling out those phases.” Reuters
With uncertainty swirling, analysts are mapping out a range of outcomes as the market tacks on a “risk premium”—that’s the extra cost traders are willing to pay to account for what they don’t know. Citi puts Brent in an $80 to $90 band, at least for the next week. Meanwhile, JPMorgan figures exports via Hormuz have dropped to roughly 4 million bpd, way down from the typical 16 million. Wood Mackenzie warns that if tankers can’t get moving again soon, Brent could push past $100. Reuters
The rally’s held up by fears of just how much worse things might get, rather than by the losses already logged in recent weeks. If there’s any solid indication that traffic is picking up again, or that threats to energy infrastructure are fading, the premium could evaporate quickly. On top of that, concerns about demand and a firmer dollar would pile on more pressure.
The official release is next. Traders are watching for results from Trump’s policy review, set for later Tuesday—specifically, any indication about tanker insurance backing or moves involving the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the U.S.’s emergency crude supply. Then comes Wednesday’s U.S. weekly oil inventory data, the next chance to gauge just how scarce barrels might be.
