Houston, March 5, 2026, 12:33 (CST) — Regular session
- Brent crude jumped roughly 3%, trading near $84 a barrel as fighting in the Middle East rattled energy flows.
- A tanker sitting off Kuwait relayed word of a “large explosion” nearby, and oil was seen in the water, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations office. Reuters
- U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 3.5 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly data.
Brent crude jumped more than 3% Thursday, breaking past the $84 mark as traders reacted to escalating supply and shipping threats tied to the expanding U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. As of 11:43 a.m. EST, Brent was up $2.92, or 3.59%, at $84.32 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate surged $4.40, or 5.89%, to $79.06.
Right now, logistics are in the hot seat—charts can wait. After tanker attacks in Gulf waters, some 200 ships sit anchored near key producers, according to shipping data referenced by Reuters. With the Strait of Hormuz still handling nearly 20% of global oil and LNG, that bottleneck isn’t shifting.
JPMorgan analysts flagged the risk: if the Strait remains shut, Iraq and Kuwait might begin halting crude shipments in just a few days. By the eighth day of the conflict, that could mean a reduction of 3.3 million barrels per day. “Crude prices are going to be very sensitive” to the Strait’s closure, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Reuters
The Bahamas-flagged crude tanker Sonangol Namibe appears to have taken a hit to its hull after an explosion while sitting at anchor off Iraq’s Khor al Zubair port, according to its U.S. representative firm. Around 01:20 local time, crew reported a small boat came close, followed by a sharp blast. Water then started draining from a ballast tank, but the vessel stayed upright and stable in the water.
Diesel is feeling the pinch first—no surprise, given its central role in freight and industry. AAA on Wednesday pegged U.S. retail diesel at $4.04 a gallon. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy flagged a possible jump to somewhere between $4.25 and $4.45 a gallon in the coming days.
The physical crude market’s getting tighter, particularly on the heavy grades refiners lean on for diesel yields. Mars sour crude fetched a $5.50 premium over WTI on Wednesday, according to brokers. “Buyers seem to be rushing” to lock in cargoes as they prepare for a drawn-out disruption, said Rohit Rathod, senior analyst at ship-tracker Vortexa. Reuters
Swings in the market are drawing both hedgers and speculators. Earlier this week, ICE logged record-breaking energy futures and options activity. According to Matt Marshall, president of Aegis Hedging, producers were ready to jump in at the open, eager to secure higher prices—he pointed out that “hedging” just means locking in a future sale price to smooth out revenue. Reuters
This is a war-premium market, and that premium could vanish quickly. A real signal that shipping lanes are safe again, or evidence that producers can boost output without taking new hits, would expose just how much of the surge is nerves—not supply.
Eyes turn to March 11—the date the EIA drops its next weekly U.S. petroleum status report. Until then, tanker routes and changes in insurance terms through the Strait of Hormuz will keep swinging prices.
