London, March 4, 2026, 18:41 GMT — Regular session
- Brent hovered around $81.7 a barrel, up roughly 0.4%, following some volatile price action earlier in the session
- Traders kept their attention on shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with new supply risks adding to the jitters.
- Near-term oil forecasts saw an uptick from banks, though the market’s focus remains fixed on any sign of de-escalation.
Brent crude crept up on Wednesday, sticking just over $81 as the market weighed Gulf supply jitters against speculation of potential negotiations. By late London trade, Brent futures added 29 cents to $81.69 a barrel, swinging from $80.32 to as high as $84.47 during the session. U.S. WTI tacked on 50 cents, hitting $75.06.
Markets have been on edge after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran spilled over, locking up shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for a fifth straight day. “While flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted, market participants seem to expect a de-escalation,” said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. Still, Staunovo cautioned that if the disruption drags on, more production could be knocked offline. U.S. crude inventories climbed by 3.5 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Even so, Dennis Kissler at BOK Financial noted that the setup continues to look volatile. Reuters
Still, a trickle of barrels is getting through. The Suezmax tanker Pola made an uncommon run, passing the Strait to the UAE, where it picked up Murban crude bound for Thailand, according to industry sources and shiptracking data. On March 1, only four crude tankers crossed the strait, a sharp drop from the usual 24 a day seen since January, per Vortexa vessel-tracking numbers.
It’s not just crude shipments feeling the pain. Ship-tracking data compiled by Reuters points to more than 200 vessels idling at anchor near key Gulf exporters. QatarEnergy, after LNG facility attacks, invoked force majeure, allowing it to skip deliveries under exceptional circumstances, according to sources speaking to Reuters. President Donald Trump is offering political-risk insurance and naval escorts. Still, Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, says securing “all tankers” in danger zones? Not feasible. Reuters
Banks are upping their numbers in a hurry. UBS now sees Brent averaging $71 a barrel in the first quarter and $72 for 2026, citing the Strait’s near shutdown as a shift in risk. UBS flagged that if critical infrastructure takes a hit, Brent could clear $90. A prolonged closure of the Strait, they say, might drive prices past $100. Still, the bank doesn’t expect Brent to revisit the $60 mark from earlier this year.
Goldman Sachs bumped its second-quarter Brent projection up by $10, setting it at $76 a barrel. The bank’s outlook hinges on stubbornly low traffic through Hormuz, a vital artery for around 20% of global oil and LNG shipments, which could tighten OECD stockpiles and Middle East supply. If volumes don’t pick up in the next five weeks, Brent might touch $100, Goldman noted, but warned that a quicker-than-expected recovery in flows could cap those gains.
Still, there’s a clear exit for the trade. Should negotiations pick up speed and escorts or new routes get oil moving faster than anticipated, the risk premium—the added dollars buyers shell out for supply threats—could quickly vanish from Brent. U.S. crude inventories are already climbing, which adds pressure.
Next, traders have their eyes on tanker activity through Hormuz—regular, consistent transits matter more here than the odd single crossing. Looking ahead, the U.S. weekly petroleum status report drops March 11, followed by the International Energy Agency’s March oil market update on March 12.
