London, January 13, 2026, 12:05 GMT — Regular session
- Brent rose 1.7% to roughly $64.93 a barrel, marking a third consecutive session of gains
- Traders pointed to supply risks from Iran, as discussions around tariffs and sanctions resurfaced
- Upcoming catalysts: U.S. inflation data on Tuesday, followed by stockpile figures Wednesday
Brent crude futures climbed $1.06, or 1.7%, reaching $64.93 a barrel by 0934 GMT on Tuesday, near levels not seen since mid-November amid renewed worries about Iran’s exports. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $1.02, also 1.7%, to $60.52. John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, noted the market is factoring in some price protection against geopolitical risks, while Barclays estimates that unrest in Iran has tacked on roughly $3-$4 a barrel in geopolitical “risk premium”—the added cost traders accept to hedge against supply disruptions. 1
Brent prices have surged over 6% across the last three sessions, pushing the global benchmark close to November highs. The momentum picked up further following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on countries “doing business” with Iran, though specifics on enforcement remain unclear. 2
Brent matters because it serves as the benchmark for much of the world’s seaborne crude and plays a crucial role in shaping fuel prices and inflation forecasts. It also influences oil stocks across the board, from major producers to smaller drillers, even when there’s little company-specific news.
Oil prices hit multi-week highs Monday. Brent climbed 53 cents, or 0.8%, closing at $63.87 a barrel—its strongest level since Nov. 18. WTI rose 38 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $59.50, marking its highest since Dec. 5. Data from Kpler and Vortexa, cited by Reuters, revealed Iran had record crude volumes at sea, roughly equal to 50 days of output, as buyers weighed the risks of sanctions and shipping constraints. 3
On the supply front, Washington and Caracas are wrapping up a $2 billion deal to move up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, currently stranded on ships and in storage due to a U.S. blockade. Trading giants Vitol and Trafigura have landed special licences to negotiate and export the oil, Reuters reported. Trafigura CEO Richard Holtum said the company plans to load its first cargo this week. A White House official hailed the effort to “secure and market the initial barrels” as done “at record speed.” Meanwhile, Exxon CEO Darren Woods didn’t mince words, branding Venezuela “uninvestable” during the same meeting, according to Reuters. 4
Two China-flagged supertankers that were en route to Venezuela abruptly turned back to Asia, according to LSEG shipping data, suggesting a slow restart for direct crude exports to China. Reuters noted that China imported around 642,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil last year—about 75% of Venezuela’s exports—before sanctions and recent political upheaval disrupted shipments. 5
Goldman Sachs isn’t convinced by the rally. The bank projects a surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026 and stuck with its forecast of $56 a barrel for Brent and $52 for WTI that year. It sees prices hitting a low in the fourth quarter, as OECD inventories climb. According to Goldman, growing oil stocks combined with rising non-OPEC output will probably push prices down unless there’s a significant disruption or OPEC steps in with cuts. 6
Macro risk is just behind geopolitics on the radar. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release December’s consumer price inflation data Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Reuters predict a 0.3% rise month-over-month and a 2.7% increase year-over-year. If inflation heats up, the dollar and borrowing costs usually climb, which can weigh on oil demand; cooler inflation figures tend to ease those pressures. 7
Traders are set to eye U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles closely to gauge winter demand. The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its next weekly petroleum status report on Wednesday, Jan. 14, at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, according to its official timetable. 8
The bigger question for Brent is whether the price jump reflects actual supply issues or just a risk premium. If Iranian exports continue unhindered and Venezuelan oil returns to the market sooner than anticipated, that premium could evaporate fast.
