New York, Jan 16, 2026, 15:22 (EST) — Regular session.
- Roblox shares rose about 4% in afternoon trading, outpacing the broader market.
- Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating, citing traction for a new hit title on the platform.
- Jefferies kept a Hold rating but cut its target, with investors focused on 2026 guidance.
Roblox Corp shares were up 4.3% at $88.27 on Friday afternoon, after touching $91.09 earlier in the session. The stock is trying to build on a choppy start to 2026 as analysts debate whether the platform can keep user engagement strong into the new year.
The move matters because Roblox is heading into a results window where guidance is likely to do more work than the quarter itself. Investors have been leaning hard on “bookings” — a proxy for sales of the company’s virtual currency and in-game spending — as a read-through on demand.
Friday’s rise came with the Nasdaq-heavy Invesco QQQ little changed and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fractionally higher, a reminder that Roblox-specific headlines can still swing the stock when the tape is quiet. (No link)
Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $155 price target, pointing to momentum for “Escape Tsunami” and arguing the game’s traction underscored Roblox’s ability to generate fresh hits. “The popularity of the game ‘speaks to the power of this platform to continually surface new hits,’” Morgan Stanley analysts Matthew Cost and Brian Nowak wrote. 1
Jefferies struck a more cautious tone. Analyst James Heaney maintained a Hold rating and cut his price target to $85, flagging uncertainty around 2026 bookings growth versus the company’s long-term 20%+ target, while also pointing to pressure on valuation multiples. 2
In a separate preview, Jefferies described the coming 2026 outlook as “a clearing event and reset of expectations,” reflecting how much of the debate has shifted to the next guide rather than the last quarter. 3
Roblox also outperformed some peers on the day: Unity Software fell about 5% and Take-Two Interactive slipped nearly 2%, while Electronic Arts was little changed. (No link)
There are obvious ways this can go wrong. If Roblox signals slower bookings growth or higher spending needs in 2026, the stock’s rebound could fade fast, especially with investors already treating guidance as the main test.
The next hard catalyst is Feb. 5, when Roblox is set to report fourth-quarter and full-year results after the market closes, followed by a conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET. 4
Between now and then, traders will watch for any fresh signals on engagement and spending trends — and they will also navigate a shortened trading week with U.S. markets closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. 5
