Broadcom (AVGO) Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: AI Supercycle, OpenAI Mega‑Deal and a “Priced for Perfection” Test on December 11

Broadcom’s next earnings report has turned into one of the biggest market events of the week. On Thursday, December 11, 2025, the semiconductor and infrastructure‑software giant will release Q4 and full‑year fiscal 2025 results after the U.S. market close, followed by a conference call scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET. ^[1]

With AVGO trading around $406 today and hovering near record highs, expectations are sky‑high that the company will once again deliver a blockbuster AI‑driven quarter. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at what analysts expect today (December 10, 2025), how last quarter’s results set the bar, and the key themes to watch when Broadcom reports.

When Broadcom Reports – and Why This Quarter Matters

Earnings date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
Time: After U.S. market close; conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET via Broadcom’s investor relations site ^[3]
Ticker: NASDAQ: AVGO

This quarter’s report lands in a busy macro week that also includes the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of 2025, putting extra focus on megacap tech names like Broadcom and Costco as bellwethers for risk appetite. ^[4]

Strategists at Saxo and others frame this Broadcom print as more than just an earnings update: it’s a real‑time check on the AI infrastructure cycle—how quickly hyperscalers are shifting from Nvidia GPUs toward custom AI accelerators, and whether spending on data‑center hardware is still accelerating or starting to cool. ^[5]

Wall Street’s Q4 2025 Forecast for Broadcom

Headline numbers

Across research shops and newswires as of December 10, the Street is looking for:

Revenue:
- Roughly $17.4–$17.7 billion, up about 24% year‑over‑year ^[6]
Earnings per share (EPS):
- Adjusted (non‑GAAP) EPS around $1.87–$1.88, implying ~31–32% growth vs. last year’s ~$1.42 ^[7]

Several outlets, including TipRanks and MarketBeat, highlight that these estimates have crept higher over the last 12 months, with consensus revenue raised by about 8% and EPS by around 11%, reflecting rising confidence in Broadcom’s AI exposure. ^[8]

Interestingly, Benzinga’s preview cites a slightly lower EPS consensus of $1.72, likely based on a GAAP or mixed estimate set, while still emphasizing strong year‑over‑year growth. ^[9]

Company guidance and AI outlook

Broadcom’s own guidance, issued with its Q3 results, called for:

Q4 revenue of about $17.4 billion, up 24% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA margin around 67% of revenue ^[10]

Management also guided that AI semiconductor revenue should reach roughly $6.2 billion in Q4, which would mark the 11th consecutive quarter of AI revenue growth and imply AI‑related sales growing faster than the company overall. ^[11]

Analysts at Saxo and Investing.com note that a backlog of roughly $110 billion in contracted orders will be closely watched as a barometer of hyperscaler demand and the durability of Broadcom’s AI pipeline. ^[12]

How Broadcom’s Last Earnings Report Set the Stage

Broadcom’s Q3 fiscal 2025 report (released September 4) is a big reason expectations today are so elevated.

Q3 2025 headline results

According to Broadcom’s filings and independent analysis:

Revenue: About $15.95–$16.0 billion, up 22% YoY and a company record ^[13]
GAAP net income: $4.14 billion
Non‑GAAP net income: $8.4 billion
GAAP diluted EPS: $0.85
Non‑GAAP diluted EPS: $1.69, vs. consensus around $1.66 ^[14]
Adjusted EBITDA: $10.7 billion, 67% of revenue
Free cash flow: About $7.0 billion, ~44% of revenue
Dividend: Quarterly common stock dividend of $0.59 per share ^[15]

Segment performance underlined the AI theme:

Semiconductor solutions revenue: ~$9.2 billion, +26% YoY
Infrastructure software revenue: ~$6.8 billion, +17% YoY
AI semiconductor revenue: $5.2 billion, up 63% YoY, driven largely by custom accelerators for hyperscalers and high‑end networking silicon. ^[16]

The report beat expectations on both revenue and EPS, and AVGO shares jumped roughly 9% the following day, continuing to hit new highs in the months since. ^[17]

New AI customers and guidance

On the Q3 call, CEO Hock Tan highlighted:

A fourth major XPU (custom AI accelerator) customer with more than $10 billion in orders for AI server racks, with shipments beginning in 2026 ^[18]
Strong momentum with existing hyperscaler partners, including Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), Meta’s AI programs, and other large cloud platforms ^[19]

That backdrop sets the bar for Q4: another record quarter, another AI revenue step‑up, and clarity on how quickly those massive orders convert into realized sales.

AI Supercycle: Broadcom Between Nvidia GPUs and Custom ASICs

Several pieces of research published this week describe Broadcom as sitting “inside the AI engine room” of the data center. ^[20]

Custom silicon and the OpenAI mega‑deal

Recent analysis on Investing.com and TipRanks highlights that:

Broadcom has signed a 10‑gigawatt AI accelerator and networking deal with OpenAI, projected to exceed $100 billion in lifetime value, with deliveries scheduled from H2 2026 through 2029. ^[21]
The company now counts multiple hyperscalers—including Google, Meta, ByteDance and OpenAI—as major customers for its custom AI accelerators (XPUs) and high‑speed Ethernet switches. ^[22]

Saxo’s preview stresses that Broadcom, unlike Nvidia, is less visible to consumers but sits at the crossroads of GPUs and custom AI ASICs. The mix of Nvidia GPUs versus in‑house chips at Google, Amazon, and others will be a critical storyline on this quarter’s call. ^[23]

VMware and the software engine

Broadcom’s AI story is not just about chips. The VMware acquisition and focus on VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF)have transformed the company’s software segment into a high‑margin, recurring‑revenue engine:

Infrastructure software now contributes around 40–43% of total revenue, growing at a mid‑teens rate. ^[24]
VMware Cloud Foundation and related offerings have pushed software gross margins into the mid‑80% range, supporting overall operating margins above 60%. ^[25]

Analysts argue this software ballast lets Broadcom ride the AI hardware cycle with less volatility than a pure‑play chip maker.

Fresh Commentary on December 10: What Analysts Are Saying Today

A wave of previews released today and in recent days helps define the mood heading into Thursday’s report.

Benzinga: solid track record, “Outperform” consensus

Benzinga’s December 10 preview notes that: ^[26]

Analysts expect EPS of about $1.72 (on its dataset)
Broadcom has beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including a $0.15 beat last quarter followed by a roughly 9–10% share price jump
Across 16 ratings, the consensus is “Outperform” with an average 12‑month price target near $432—about 6% upside from current levels

TipRanks: “AI mania” and another likely beat

A separate TipRanks analysis argues that “another strong print is likely”, pointing out that: ^[27]

Consensus calls for $17.47 billion in revenue and $1.87 in adjusted EPS for Q4
Wall Street has raised both revenue and EPS estimates over the past year as AI momentum strengthened
Broadcom has beaten revenue and EPS in 14 of the last 15 quarters
AI products are expected to generate more than $6 billion in Q4, now representing well over half of semiconductor revenue

Another TipRanks piece highlights that Morgan Stanley and Bank of America recently raised price targets to $443 and $460 respectively, while maintaining Buy ratings, citing Broadcom’s growing share in Google’s TPU ecosystem and expectations that its AI processor revenue could grow slightly faster than Nvidia’s in 2026. ^[28]

MarketBeat / Investing.com: “Broadcom’s biggest test yet”

A joint MarketBeat/Investing.com article calls this Broadcom’s “biggest test yet”, noting that: ^[29]

Wall Street expects Q4 revenue just under $17.5 billion (+24% YoY)
Adjusted EPS is pegged at $1.87, up 32% YoY
AI semiconductor revenue is forecast to grow roughly 66% in the quarter
At around 45x forward earnings, Broadcom is more “priced for perfection” than at any prior pre‑earnings period, raising the bar for a positive reaction

How the Market Is Positioned: Options, Ratings and Valuation

Options are pricing a big move

Two separate options‑based studies show traders bracing for a sizable move after earnings:

Investopedia estimates an implied swing of about ±6% by the end of this week, which would put AVGO roughly in a $377–$425 range around Monday’s close. ^[30]
TipRanks’ options tool points to an even larger expected ±7% move immediately following earnings. ^[31]

Given the stock’s elevated valuation, many strategists caution that “in‑line” results might not be enough; Broadcom may need a clear beat and upbeat 2026 color to avoid a pullback.

Analyst ratings and price targets

Across different datasets:

Broadcom holds a Strong Buy / Buy consensus, with 24–30+ Buy ratings and only a handful of Holds and virtually no Sells. ^[32]
Average 12‑month price targets cluster in the high‑$300s to low‑$430s, implying modest upside (≈5–8%) from the current ~$406 share price. TechStock²+2Benzinga+2
Some firms, including HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Rosenblatt, Susquehanna and UBS, have raised price targets into the $440–$535 range in recent weeks, citing Broadcom as a core AI infrastructure holding. TechStock²+2TipRanks+2

Meanwhile, valuation‑focused analyses from Simply Wall St and GuruFocus warn that on traditional P/E or discounted‑cash‑flow metrics, AVGO looks fully valued to overvalued, with long‑term returns heavily dependent on AI growth staying very strong. TechStock²+2Trefis+2

Five Key Things for Investors to Watch on Broadcom’s Call

When results hit on Thursday, these will likely be the main checkpoints for markets:

1. AI semiconductor revenue and guidance

Does Q4 AI revenue actually hit or exceed the ~$6.2 billion Broadcom has guided to?
What growth rate does management indicate for AI semiconductors in 2026, especially in light of the OpenAI deal and potential new XPU customers? ^[33]

2. Backlog and hyperscaler concentration

Any update on the ~$110 billion backlog and its mix by customer and product type
Whether major cloud providers (Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, others) are pulling in or pushing out orders in response to macro uncertainty, Fed policy and data‑center digestion cycles ^[34]

3. VMware and software momentum

Q4 growth in infrastructure software, especially VMware Cloud Foundation
Commentary on subscription renewals, pricing strategy, and opportunities to attach AI‑related services to VCF deployments
How software margins and cash flow are offsetting any cyclicality on the chip side ^[35]

4. Margins, cash returns and capital spending

Whether adjusted EBITDA margin stays in the high‑60% range as guided
Updates on free cash flow, dividends and any share‑repurchase plans
Capex and R&D spending plans tied to the OpenAI contract and other AI build‑outs ^[36]

5. Competitive positioning vs. Nvidia and AMD

Management’s view on the mix of GPUs vs. custom ASICs in AI data centers, and how Broadcom’s share of that spend is evolving
Any color on Google’s reported efforts to design more AI chips fully in‑house, and what that means for Broadcom’s long‑term role in the TPU ecosystem ^[37]

A particularly sensitive point: several recent articles argue that Nvidia’s stock has a lot riding on Broadcom’s report, because evidence of rapid custom‑chip adoption could imply more competition for GPU‑centric architectures over time. ^[38]

Main Risks Heading Into Earnings

Even with standout fundamentals, there are real risks that could show up in the numbers or guidance:

AI spending slowdown: If hyperscalers signal a pause after a massive 2024–2025 build‑out, both Nvidia and Broadcom could see slower order growth or shorter visibility. ^[39]
Customer concentration: A large share of Broadcom’s backlog is tied to a handful of huge buyers, magnifying the impact of any one customer delaying projects or pursuing in‑house silicon. ^[40]
Integration and execution risk around VMware: While VMware is driving high‑margin software growth, missteps on pricing or customer relationships could spark churn or pushback from enterprises. ^[41]
Valuation compression: With AVGO trading near record highs and at premium multiples—roughly 100x trailing and around mid‑40s forward earnings according to several estimates—any hint of slower growth or softer guidance could prompt a sharp rerating, even if the headline numbers look strong. ^[42]

Bottom Line

As of December 10, 2025, Broadcom walks into its Q4 and full‑year earnings report as:

A core AI infrastructure supplier with a massive OpenAI deal and deep ties to Google, Meta and other hyperscalers
A hybrid chip‑plus‑software powerhouse, thanks to VMware
A megacap stock near all‑time highs, with expectations and valuations to match

Consensus calls for mid‑20s revenue growth and low‑30s EPS growth in Q4, with AI revenue set to notch yet another record. But with the stock already priced for a long AI supercycle, investors will be scrutinizing every detail of AI guidance, backlog health and software momentum to decide whether Broadcom can justify its premium.

Nothing in this article is financial advice, but if you’re following the AI trade, Thursday’s Broadcom numbers are likely to be one of the defining data points of the week.

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