Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) heads into Thursday’s session and its pivotal Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings report with its share price hovering near record highs, a fresh Federal Reserve rate cut in the background, and the entire AI trade looking to the chipmaker for confirmation that the spending boom still has legs.
Below is a full rundown of how Broadcom stock traded after the bell on December 10, what’s driving sentiment, and the key numbers and storylines investors should have on their radar before the market opens on December 11.
Broadcom (AVGO) After the Bell on December 10, 2025
Broadcom extended its recent run on Wednesday. As of the U.S. close on December 10, AVGO finished around $412.9, up roughly 1.6% on the day, with an intraday range between about $399.6 and $413.3 and volume north of 16 million shares. [1]
In after-hours trading shortly after the bell, the stock eased back modestly to roughly $410, about 0.7% below the regular-session close — a fairly typical consolidation move after several strong sessions into a major catalyst. [2]
Key context around this move:
- New highs earlier this week: On December 8, Broadcom set a new all‑time high near $403.3, part of a multi‑session breakout powered by optimism around its AI business and reports that the company is in talks with Microsoft to supply custom chips. [3]
- Monster run in 2025: Year to date, AVGO shares are up roughly 74%, easily outpacing the broader semiconductor sector and cementing Broadcom’s status as one of the market’s premier AI infrastructure plays. [4]
- Huge 52‑week range: The stock’s 52‑week low sits near $138, with a 52‑week high around $414.6, underlining just how dramatically sentiment has re‑rated the name in the last year. [5]
In other words, by the close on December 10, Broadcom is priced for something close to perfection heading into tomorrow’s earnings — which is exactly why traders are laser‑focused on what happens next.
Why AVGO Keeps Hitting New Highs: AI Chips + VMware Flywheel
Broadcom’s rally isn’t just about “AI hype” – it’s about numbers, contracts, and a rapidly evolving business mix.
1. Blockbuster Q3 and aggressive Q4 guidance
Broadcom’s most recent reported quarter (fiscal Q3 2025, reported in early September) was a blowout: [6]
- Revenue: About $16 billion, up 22% year over year, and ahead of forecasts.
- EPS: Roughly $1.69, beating expectations and continuing a long streak of earnings beats.
- AI semiconductor revenue: Around $5.2 billion, up 63% year over year, and making up a growing majority of the semiconductor segment.
- Gross margin: About 78%, reflecting the high‑value mix of custom silicon and software.
- Backlog: Management highlighted a record ~$110 billion consolidated backlog, heavily skewed toward AI‑related projects.
For Q4 2025 – the numbers that will hit after Thursday’s close – Broadcom previously guided to $17.4 billion in revenue, implying growth of about 24% versus the prior year and extending its streak of record quarterly sales. [7]
2. A central player in the AI infrastructure build‑out
Multiple recent analyses stress that Broadcom is now deeply embedded in the data‑center AI build‑out at nearly every major hyperscaler: [8]
- It designs custom AI accelerators (ASICs/“XPUs”) for Google’s TPUs, which power Gemini and other large language models.
- It supplies bespoke chips and high‑speed networking silicon to Meta, Amazon, and other cloud providers.
- In 2025, Broadcom secured a 10‑gigawatt AI accelerator and networking deal with OpenAI, with a projected lifetime value north of $100 billion and deliveries expected to ramp from the second half of 2026 through 2029. [9]
This combination of custom compute and networking is core to the bullish thesis. Broadcom isn’t just selling chips; it’s selling the glue (Ethernet switches, interconnects, and software) that makes massive AI clusters work efficiently at scale.
3. VMware turns Broadcom into an AI + software hybrid
Broadcom’s 2023 acquisition of VMware has reshaped the business: infrastructure software now accounts for roughly 40‑plus percent of revenue and carries gross margins in the mid‑80s. [10]
Analysts note that:
- VMware Cloud Foundation subscriptions are growing quickly.
- The software segment provides high‑margin, recurring revenue that helps smooth out the cyclicality of chips.
- Broadcom can bundle VMware’s cloud platform with AI infrastructure, deepening customer relationships and expanding its addressable market. [11]
This “AI hardware + enterprise software” pairing is a big part of why some commentators now describe Broadcom as an AI and software powerhouse and even a fresh member of the “Magnificent Seven” group of mega‑cap tech leaders. [12]
What Wall Street Expects from Broadcom’s Q4 2025 Earnings
Broadcom reports its fiscal Q4 and full‑year 2025 results after the market close on Thursday, December 11, 2025. [13]
Across previews and research notes published on December 10, the expectations are remarkably aligned:
Consensus numbers
Recent estimates and previews point to roughly: [14]
- Revenue: about $17.4–$17.5 billion (around 24–25% year‑over‑year growth).
- EPS: roughly $1.86–$1.87, up around 30–32% from last year’s Q4.
- AI semiconductor revenue: management previously signaled around $6.2 billion for the quarter, implying mid‑60s percent growth versus a year ago and making AI well over half of chip sales.
Broadcom has racked up double‑digit consecutive quarters of record revenue and frequent beats versus consensus — analysts are effectively expecting yet another record Q4, followed by strong guidance into 2026. [15]
Analyst ratings and price targets
Street sentiment is overwhelmingly positive:
- Bank of America (Vivek Arya): reiterated a Buy on December 10 and raised his price target from $400 to $460, calling Broadcom a prime beneficiary of surging AI data‑center spending, particularly via Google, Anthropic, and Meta. [16]
- JPMorgan (Harlan Sur): keeps an Overweight rating and sees upside to Q4 numbers and Q1 guidance, projecting Q4 AI revenue in the $6.5–$6.7 billion range and overall Q1 2026 revenue around $19 billion. [17]
- Other firms like Rosenblatt, Oppenheimer, Susquehanna, and Morgan Stanley have all bumped targets into roughly the $435–$450 zone while maintaining bullish ratings. [18]
- A separate review notes that Broadcom carries a Strong Buy consensus, though at current levels the average Wall Street target offers only single‑digit percentage upside, reflecting how far the share price has already run. [19]
Options markets are also bracing for fireworks. One options‑focused analysis published on December 10 points out that traders are pricing roughly a 10% move in AVGO after earnings, in line with the stock’s average ~10% post‑earnings swing across the last eight reports. [20]
Macro Backdrop: Fed’s Third Rate Cut and AI “Show-Me” Mode
Broadcom’s earnings won’t land in a macro vacuum.
On December 10, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the third time this year, bringing the fed funds target range down to 3.5%–3.75%. [21]
Key takeaways from the Fed meeting:
- Policymakers signaled that rate cuts from here will be slower, penciling in just one more cut in 2026, and stressing that further moves will depend on inflation and the labor market. [22]
- Stocks finished the day higher after initial volatility, with the S&P 500 and Dow both gaining as markets interpreted the decision as a “dovish but cautious” cut. [23]
At the same time, several pieces this week have framed Oracle and Broadcom’s earnings as a crucial test of whether AI spending can justify the massive capital outlays and lofty valuations built into Big Tech stocks. [24]
For AVGO shareholders, that combination means:
- A slightly friendlier rate environment (good for high‑growth, long‑duration assets like AI leaders).
- But also a market that is increasingly demanding hard evidence (bookings, revenue, margins) rather than just AI headlines.
Key Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11
Here are the main points traders and longer‑term investors should keep in mind heading into Thursday’s open and into the earnings print after the close.
1. Positioning after a parabolic move
- AVGO has rallied more than 70% in 2025 and is up well over 100% versus its 52‑week low, having just broken through the $400 level and set fresh highs around $413–$414. [25]
- An Investing.com valuation review notes that the stock recently traded near 100x trailing earnings and almost 50x forward EV/EBITDA, compared with a historical multiple closer to 30x — rich even by AI standards. [26]
That doesn’t mean an immediate top, but it does mean expectations are elevated. Even a solid beat that lacks a big guidance raise could trigger some profit‑taking.
2. The AI revenue line and 2026 guidance
Across previews, one theme is crystal clear: AI is the main event. [27]
Before the bell — and especially after the report — investors will be focused on:
- Q4 AI revenue: Does Broadcom at least meet its own prior indication of roughly $6.2 billion, implying mid‑60s percent growth? [28]
- 2026 AI guidance: Management previously suggested AI chip revenue could double again in 2026; markets now want to see that outlook either reaffirmed or raised, especially in light of the OpenAI megadeal and potential incremental business from Microsoft. [29]
- Customer concentration and new wins: Any fresh detail on Google’s TPU roadmap, OpenAI deployment timing, and potential switches of custom‑silicon work from rivals like Marvell will be parsed line by line. [30]
If you’re watching AVGO on the open, think of the headline numbers as just the starting gun — it’s the forward commentary on AI demand and capacity that could really move the stock.
3. VMware and software growth
The market is also expecting VMware and the broader infrastructure software unit to keep:
- Growing double digits,
- Expanding gross margins, and
- Generating high‑quality recurring cash flows. [31]
Any sign that VMware integration is stalling, customers are pushing back on pricing, or growth is slowing materially would undermine the “AI + software” diversification story that has been central to the re‑rating.
4. Margins and mix: can Broadcom stay in the high‑70s?
Several analysts have flagged a potential modest squeeze in gross margins as AI XPUs and certain wireless products – which can carry slightly lower margins than pure networking or software – become a larger share of revenue. [32]
Things to listen for:
- How management frames Q4 gross margin vs. Q3’s ~78%, and what they guide for into FY 2026. [33]
- Whether software and high‑margin networking can offset any pressure from AI accelerators.
- Commentary on long‑term margin targets as AI ramps further.
5. Macro data and Thursday’s economic calendar
Before Broadcom reports after the close, traders will also digest Thursday’s data:
- U.S. trade deficit,
- Initial jobless claims, and
- Wholesale inventories,
all of which are on the schedule and could nudge yields, index futures, and risk appetite earlier in the session. [34]
If yields fall further on the back of the Fed decision and economic data, richly valued growth names like AVGO could see another leg up into the earnings print. If they spike higher instead, some investors may derisk.
Broadcom Stock Forecasts: What the Longer-Term Analyses Say
For investors thinking beyond Thursday’s close, several deep‑dive pieces published in November and December lay out how the Broadcom story could evolve over the rest of the decade.
1. Long-term upside case
A recent 24/7 Wall St. forecast argues that Broadcom’s extraordinary track record – decades of revenue and earnings expansion, a successful 10‑for‑1 stock split in 2024, and heavy exposure to AI and networking – still leaves “plenty of room” for the stock to rise by 2030 despite its huge run. [35]
Key bullish pillars include:
- Revenue up more than 600% and net income up over 800% in the past decade. [36]
- Strong free‑cash‑flow growth (over 90% from 2019 to 2023) and massive institutional ownership, with big stakes held by Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street. [37]
- The view that Broadcom will keep filling AI demand that Nvidia alone can’t satisfy, giving it years of structural tailwinds. [38]
Other bullish commentaries highlight the OpenAI contract and hyperscaler partnerships as potential multi‑year revenue engines that could support above‑trend growth and justify today’s premium multiples. [39]
2. Valuation red flags and “show-me” risks
On the more cautious side:
- A valuation analysis from Simply Wall St. suggests AVGO is only slightly below its calculated fair value (roughly $403 vs. a modeled fair value near $404), with an analyst consensus target around $360 and a wide spread between the most bullish and most bearish targets. [40]
- The same analysis points out that the recent multi‑month rally (up roughly 15% in a month and nearly 20% over three months) has pushed expectations high enough that even solid execution might not be enough to keep the momentum going if AI spending wobbles. [41]
- Several commentaries also warn that AI capital expenditure is cyclical: if hyperscalers slow spending or monetization proves slower than hoped, a richly valued name like Broadcom could see a sharp de‑rating. [42]
In short, the long‑term narrative is extremely positive, but the margin for error in the near term is shrinking.
Bottom Line for December 11, 2025
Heading into Thursday’s open and Broadcom’s Q4 earnings release after the bell, here’s the distilled picture:
- The stock: AVGO is trading just below record highs after a 70‑plus percent run this year, with modest after‑hours cooling on December 10 following another strong session. [43]
- The macro backdrop: The Fed has just cut rates for the third time in 2025, but signaled a slower path ahead, giving growth stocks a tailwind while keeping investors focused on fundamentals. [44]
- The expectations: Wall Street wants to see Q4 revenue around $17.5 billion, EPS near $1.87, AI revenue near or above $6.2 billion, and stronger AI guidance for 2026 — plus confirmation that VMware‑driven software growth remains robust. [45]
- The risk/reward: Broadcom is widely rated a Buy or Strong Buy, but valuation is demanding. A big beat and higher guidance could extend the rally; any disappointment on AI or margins could spark a sharp pullback as traders lock in profits. [46]
For traders, that likely translates into elevated volatility around both the open and the close on December 11. For long‑term investors, tomorrow’s report is less about one quarter and more about confirming that Broadcom’s AI and software flywheel is still accelerating fast enough to grow into — and eventually out of — its premium valuation.
References
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