Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) is ending 2025 with investors debating a familiar tradeoff: explosive AI-driven demand versus near-term margin pressure. In the holiday-thinned session on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, Broadcom shares traded around $349, up roughly 2% on the day at the time of writing—an encouraging bounce after a sharp, earnings-related drawdown earlier this month. [1]
That rebound matters because Broadcom has become one of the market’s most important “AI infrastructure” bellwethers—spanning custom AI accelerators, Ethernet switching/networking, and a fast-expanding infrastructure software business anchored by VMware. This mix gives AVGO multiple ways to win if AI buildouts continue—but it also makes the stock sensitive to any hint that returns on AI spending might be lower than investors hoped.
Below is a complete, publication-ready rundown of the key headlines, fresh commentary, and the most cited forecasts and analyst views shaping Broadcom stock as of December 24, 2025.
Broadcom stock price today: AVGO stabilizes near $349 in Christmas Eve trade
Broadcom shares hovered near $349 in Wednesday’s session, after opening the day higher and trading in a relatively narrow intraday range (roughly the high-$340s to low-$350s).
Market context matters: U.S. trading is holiday-affected and liquidity is typically thinner into Christmas, which can amplify moves in mega-cap tech names on relatively modest flows. [2]
What’s “new” for Broadcom on Dec. 24, 2025?
There wasn’t a major company-specific press release today. Instead, Broadcom’s price action reflects the market digesting December’s AI narrative—with fresh same-day commentary leaning bullish on the idea that AVGO is trying to form a base after its post-earnings slide.
One widely circulated technical take published today suggested Broadcom was attempting to bounce from a support zone around $325, framing the recent drop as a sharp selloff followed by holiday-period stabilization. [3]
The big catalyst behind AVGO: strong AI growth, record results—and a margin warning
Broadcom’s latest earnings cycle is still the central driver of sentiment.
In its December 11, 2025 results release (fiscal Q4 and full-year FY2025), Broadcom reported:
- Q4 revenue of about $18.0B, up 28% year over year
- AI semiconductor revenue up 74% year over year in Q4
- A Q1 FY2026 revenue outlook of about $19.1B
- An expectation that AI semiconductor revenue will double year over year to $8.2B in Q1
- An adjusted EBITDA margin outlook of ~67%
- A 10% dividend increase to $0.65 per share (quarterly), with a stated FY2026 annual dividend target of $2.60 per share [4]
So why did the stock sell off hard earlier this month?
The margin issue that spooked investors
In the post-earnings discussion, Broadcom warned that gross margin would likely decline by about 100 basis points sequentially in Q1, driven primarily by a higher mix of AI revenue. [5]
That’s not a “demand problem.” It’s a profit mix problem—and it triggered a fast repricing because AVGO’s 2025 rally had set expectations extremely high.
The other pressure point: backlog concentration
Broadcom also talked about a $73 billion AI backlog expected to ship over the next 18 months, with commentary highlighting that the backlog is concentrated among roughly five customers. [6]
For bulls, this is evidence that hyperscalers and frontier-model builders are committing real money to custom silicon and networking.
For skeptics, customer concentration raises questions:
- What happens if one major buyer delays a deployment?
- What if AI capex shifts toward in-house chips or alternative suppliers?
- How durable are margins if systems and custom silicon carry lower gross margins?
Why Broadcom shares plunged in mid-December—and why they’re bouncing now
On December 12, 2025, Reuters reported that Broadcom shares fell more than 11% after investors focused on the lower-margin AI mix and the implications for profitability—even as broader commentary argued the AI opportunity remains intact. [7]
A few days later, sector-wide anxiety intensified. MarketWatch described a sharp pullback across AI-linked names (including Broadcom) tied to concerns about the financing and economics of data-center infrastructure, including questions around whether some high-profile AI infrastructure builds can be funded as easily as markets assumed. [8]
Why Dec. 24 feels different (at least short-term)
Today’s stabilization is consistent with a classic pattern in high-momentum megacaps:
- Beat-and-raise fundamentals (Broadcom delivered strong results and upbeat revenue guidance)
- A valuation reset when the market finds a “flaw” (here: margin mix and visibility)
- A bounce when selling pressure exhausts and investors re-anchor to long-term AI demand
This doesn’t mean volatility is over. But it explains why AVGO can rally on a day with no new headline: investors are repricing the balance between growth and profitability.
VMware and software: the underappreciated second engine in the Broadcom story
A major reason investors continue to give Broadcom a premium place in AI portfolios is that it’s not “just chips.”
Broadcom’s earnings release showed the company generating substantial revenue from both:
- Semiconductor solutions, and
- Infrastructure software (VMware and related assets) [9]
And management has repeatedly framed VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) as a strategic platform, with reports this year pointing to substantial customer migration from perpetual licensing to subscription bundles. For example, CIO Dive reported commentary that more than 90% of VMware’s largest 10,000 customers had shifted from perpetual licenses to the subscription-based VCF bundle, as Broadcom moved into the “second phase” of VMware consolidation. [10]
Why this matters for the stock:
Infrastructure software can help smooth the cyclicality of semiconductors. When investors get nervous about AI hardware margins, recurring software revenue can support the broader valuation—provided customer retention remains healthy.
The OpenAI partnership: a major future AI ramp starting in the second half of 2026
One of the most important longer-range catalysts on the AVGO roadmap is the OpenAI relationship.
On October 13, 2025, OpenAI and Broadcom announced a strategic collaboration to deploy 10 gigawatts of OpenAI-designed AI accelerators, scaled with Broadcom Ethernet and connectivity solutions—targeting deployments starting in the second half of 2026 and running through the end of 2029. [11]
From a stock perspective, this does two things:
- It reinforces Broadcom’s position as a go-to partner for custom AI silicon + networking systems at hyperscale.
- It extends the “AI duration” of the story beyond the next quarter or two—especially if multiple customers pursue OpenAI-style custom designs.
At the same time, investors have been trying to understand how such deals are reflected in Broadcom’s disclosed backlog and revenue visibility. MarketWatch noted that part of the confusion in December was whether the $73B AI backlog did—or did not—include OpenAI-related contributions expected to begin later in 2026. [12]
Analyst forecasts for Broadcom stock: price targets reset higher despite the selloff
Even after December’s volatility, the Street still leans bullish.
Consensus view
One widely referenced snapshot of analyst coverage shows:
- A “Strong Buy” consensus, and
- An average 12-month price target around the low-$400s (with wide dispersion between low and high targets). [13]
Recent target raises (December 2025)
Several notes and aggregations published in the last week highlight upward revisions. Examples include:
- Truist raising its price target to $510 (reported Dec. 19, 2025). [14]
- A Nasdaq/Fintel aggregation reporting the average one-year price target revised to about $465.27 (as of Dec. 21, 2025), with a broad range of targets across analysts. [15]
The takeaway: analysts are largely treating the December drop as a reset, not a thesis break—especially if AI demand stays strong and margin pressure proves manageable.
Bull case vs. bear case: what matters most for AVGO into 2026
The bull case for Broadcom stock
Broadcom bulls are essentially betting on three pillars:
- Custom AI accelerators + Ethernet switching remain core building blocks of AI data centers (and Broadcom keeps winning designs). [16]
- The company converts its $73B AI backlog into revenue on schedule—without meaningful customer deferrals. [17]
- VMware/infrastructure software expands recurring cash flows, supporting buybacks/dividends and softening semiconductor cycles. [18]
The bear case investors are still debating
The skeptical view tends to cluster around:
- Gross margin dilution from a higher mix of lower-margin AI products/systems (even if operating profit dollars rise). [19]
- Customer concentration risk in the AI backlog and the possibility that large customers renegotiate, delay, or pivot. [20]
- AI infrastructure funding concerns spilling into sentiment across the whole sector—particularly if data-center buildouts hit financing constraints. [21]
- Valuation sensitivity: when a stock is priced for exceptional growth, small narrative changes (like margin mix) can drive large price swings.
Key dates and what to watch next for Broadcom investors
Here’s what matters most from here, as of Dec. 24:
- Dividend: Broadcom declared a $0.65 quarterly dividend, payable December 31, 2025 to shareholders of record December 22, 2025. [22]
- Next earnings window: A published earnings call transcript indicates Broadcom plans to report next results after the close on March 4, 2026 (timing subject to change). [23]
- Watchlist metrics for the next quarter:
Bottom line: Broadcom remains an AI infrastructure powerhouse—now with a clearer “price of growth”
As of December 24, 2025, Broadcom stock is trading like a company with strong demand visibility but a market that’s newly strict about how profitable that growth will be.
The December reset appears to have shifted the investor conversation from “How big is AI?” to “How big—and how profitable—will Broadcom’s AI mix be as custom silicon scales?” That’s exactly why AVGO can drop hard on a margin comment and then rebound a week or two later when buyers decide the long-term runway still justifies the premium.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.fxempire.com, 4. www.prnewswire.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.prnewswire.com, 10. www.ciodive.com, 11. openai.com, 12. www.marketwatch.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.ciodive.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.stocktitan.net, 23. www.fool.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.prnewswire.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.ciodive.com
