Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) heads into its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report on Thursday, December 11, 2025, with its share price hovering just below all‑time highs and expectations for another blockbuster AI‑driven quarter.
As of December 10, 2025, Broadcom stock is trading around $406 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $1.9 trillion and putting the stock within a dollar of its 52‑week high of $407.29. [1] Year to date, AVGO has surged about 75% in 2025, easily outpacing both the broader market and even Nvidia’s impressive ~38% gain. [2]
Below is a deep dive into today’s news, forecasts, and analysis on Broadcom stock, all current as of December 10, 2025.
1. Broadcom Stock Today: Near Record Highs and Heavy Institutional Ownership
MarketBeat data shows AVGO opening at $406.29 on Wednesday, with a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio around 103–101x, a PEG ratio near 1.36, and a beta of ~1.2, underscoring both premium growth expectations and above‑market volatility. [3]
Key snapshot metrics (Dec 10, 2025):
- Share price: ~$406
- 52‑week range: $138.10 – $407.29
- Market cap: ~$1.92 trillion
- P/E: ~100x trailing earnings (vs ~38x for the average U.S. semiconductor stock) [4]
- Debt/Equity: ~0.86; current ratio 1.5, quick ratio 1.37 [5]
On the ownership side, institutional investors control more than three‑quarters of the float. A recent 13F filing shows Intact Investment Management cut its Broadcom position by about 15% in Q2, to 87,900 shares worth roughly $24.2 million, while MarketBeat’s broader data indicates that institutions and hedge funds collectively own around 76–79% of the stock. [6]
At the same time, there has been notable insider selling:
- Co‑founder Henry Samueli recently sold ~320,000 shares of AVGO. [7]
- Earlier filings show CFO Kirsten Spears and other insiders selling shares following the stock’s rally. [8]
So far, the market has largely shrugged off these sales, viewing them as liquidity events after a massive multi‑year run rather than a negative signal.
2. Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: Another Big AI Quarter?
Broadcom reports fiscal Q4 2025 results after the close on December 11, 2025. Multiple previews from Zacks, Nasdaq, and others point to another record quarter. [9]
Street expectations for Q4 2025 (fiscal):
- Revenue: about $17.4–$17.5 billion, up roughly 24–25% year over year
- Adjusted EPS: around $1.87–$1.88, up about 32% year over year [10]
- AI semiconductor revenue (estimate): roughly $6.2 billion, up ~66% YoY and accounting for more than a third of total sales [11]
For context, Q3 2025 was already huge:
- Total Q3 revenue:$16 billion, +22% YoY
- AI semiconductor revenue:$5.2 billion, +63% YoY
- Backlog: around $110 billion, with AI demand a major contributor [12]
The Q4 print will show whether Broadcom can accelerate from that base and maintain its AI momentum while integrating its massive VMware software business.
3. How Much Could AVGO Move on Earnings? Options Market Says ~6%
According to an Investopedia analysis of options pricing, traders are bracing for a post‑earnings move of roughly 6% in either direction. From Monday’s close, options imply a potential trading range of roughly $377 on the downside to about $425 on the upside after the Q4 report. [13]
A separate historical study from MarketChameleon notes that after Broadcom’s previous earnings report on September 4, 2025, the stock jumped about 9.4% the next day, underlining how volatile AVGO can be around major catalysts. [14]
This week’s report also lands during a Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which Investopedia highlights as another potential source of market turbulence, alongside earnings from Oracle and other tech names. [15]
4. AI Supercycle: Custom Silicon, Networking and VMware
4.1 Custom AI Chips for Google, Meta and OpenAI
Broadcom has become one of the key suppliers of custom AI silicon, designing application‑specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for hyperscale customers such as Google, Meta, and OpenAI. [16]
Several recent analyst notes and news items stress how central AVGO has become to the AI infrastructure boom:
- A Benzinga‑covered note projects $20–21 billion in AI revenue in fiscal 2025 (ASICs plus networking), implying roughly 60% year‑over‑year growth, and sees upside to more than $50 billion in AI revenue by fiscal 2026 as next‑generation chips (Google’s TPU v7, Meta’s MTIA 3nm, OpenAI’s XPU, Broadcom’s Tomahawk 6) ramp. [17]
- A separate “AI supercycle” analysis suggests 2026 AI guidance could exceed 100% growth year over year, driven by hyperscalers shifting more custom silicon business to Broadcom. [18]
- Motley Fool reports that Broadcom is expected to begin supplying custom chips to OpenAI in the second half of 2026 under a multi‑year order that runs through 2029. [19]
This custom‑chip positioning is also why some commentators describe Broadcom as “quietly stealing Nvidia’s AI thunder,” by capturing workloads that prefer ASICs over general‑purpose GPUs. [20]
4.2 10 Billion Dollar AI Order and Massive Backlog
Earlier this year, AVGO shares spiked following news of a $10 billion booking order for AI chips from a major customer, adding to the company’s already large backlog. [21]
Combined with the $110 billion consolidated backlog reported after Q3 2025, that order helps explain why many Wall Street analysts see Broadcom’s AI growth as highly visible through at least the next several years. [22]
4.3 VMware and Private Cloud: Software as a Second Engine
AI is only one side of Broadcom’s story. The other is its infrastructure software and VMware business:
- An Investing.com analysis argues that Broadcom’s structural position spanning AI compute, enterprise software and data infrastructure makes it one of the most strategically important technology companies globally, with the December 11 earnings call expected to showcase continued revenue acceleration and robust FY 2026 guidance. [23]
- Broadcom has also expanded its VMware‑driven cloud footprint via a strategic partnership with NEC to modernize private clouds using VMware Cloud Foundation, a key plank in its hybrid‑cloud and data‑center strategy. [24]
This combination of custom AI silicon + networking + VMware software is a big reason many analysts view Broadcom as a “picks‑and‑shovels” AI infrastructure platform, not just another chip stock.
5. Analyst Upgrades, Targets and 2026 Bull Case
5.1 Recent Rating Changes and Price‑Target Hikes
In just the past few days, Broadcom has seen a wave of bullish analyst activity:
- Rosenblatt Securities raised its AVGO price target from $400 to $440 and maintained a Buy rating. [25]
- Susquehanna lifted its target from $400 to $450 with a “Positive” rating, citing Broadcom’s expanding ASIC base and strong early performance of Google’s TPU v7, which is attracting customers such as Anthropic and Meta. [26]
- HSBC reiterated its Buy rating with a $535 price target, highlighting momentum in Broadcom’s ASIC technology. Bank of America raised its target from $400 to $460, pointing to Broadcom’s deepening role in Google’s TPU ecosystem. [27]
- An earlier UBS note accompanied AVGO’s breakout to new all‑time highs, reinforcing the idea that the stock is now seen as a core AI infrastructure holding ahead of Q4 earnings. [28]
Across Wall Street, MarketBeat counts 3 “Strong Buy” and 31 “Buy” ratings versus just one “Hold”, for an overall “Buy” consensus on the stock. [29]
5.2 Consensus 12‑Month Targets
The exact average price target for Broadcom depends on the data source:
- MarketBeat:
- Average 12‑month target: $392.46
- Range: $210 – $472
- Implied move: roughly –3% downside versus today’s ~$406 price. [30]
- Fintel (as of December 5, 2025):
- Average 1‑year target: $411.31
- Range: $220.18 – $561.75
- Implied upside: ~2.5% from a recent close near $401.10. [31]
- Visible Alpha (via Investopedia):
- All 12 tracked analysts rate Broadcom a “Buy”, with an average price target around $432.02. [32]
In other words, consensus 12‑month targets cluster in the high‑$300s to mid‑$400s, only modestly above (or even slightly below) today’s price. Most of the explosive upside narratives come not from near‑term targets, but from multi‑year AI growth forecasts.
5.3 Long‑Term Forecasts Through 2030
A detailed forecast from 24/7 Wall St. models how Broadcom’s next five years could unfold: [33]
- Base‑case revenue: rising from about $60.5 billion in 2025 to $106.6 billion by 2030
- Estimated EPS: from $6.19 (2025) to $18.66 (2030)
- Price targets (their scenario, not Street consensus):
- 2026: $364.50 (~10% upside vs their baseline reference price)
- 2027: $423.36 (~28% upside)
- 2028: $501.48 (~51% upside)
- 2029: $597.20 (~80% upside)
- 2030: $709.08 (about 114% upside versus their stated “current price”)
The article emphasizes Broadcom’s decade‑long growth in revenue (+647%) and net income (+808%) as a foundation for these projections, while acknowledging that valuation compression (lower P/E multiples over time) is likely. [34]
6. Valuation: Fairly Priced or AI Bubble Territory?
Valuation is where opinions on Broadcom diverge the most.
6.1 “Slightly Undervalued” Narrative
A fresh Simply Wall St analysis frames AVGO as roughly fairly valued at current levels:
- Recent close: $401.10
- “Narrative fair value”: $403.66, implying the stock is about 0.6% undervalued.
- Analyst consensus in that framework: target around $360, with a bull case near $416 and a bear case near $218. [35]
However, the same piece notes that Broadcom’s P/E of ~100.7x is far above both the US semiconductor average (~38x) and their own “fair” multiple of ~66x, raising questions about how much future growth is already priced in. [36]
6.2 GuruFocus DCF: “Modestly to Significantly Overvalued”
A GuruFocus discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis published in September 2025 comes to a much more conservative conclusion:
- Earnings‑based DCF intrinsic value:$196.56 per share
- Free‑cash‑flow‑based DCF intrinsic value:$161.00 per share
- At the time, AVGO traded around $344.94, implying negative margins of safety of roughly –75% (earnings DCF) and –114% (FCF DCF). [37]
With the stock now above $400, those DCF models would flag even less margin of safety, unless investors assume much higher long‑term growth than the historical averages baked into those calculations.
6.3 AI Risk vs Reward
Several other pieces — including Seeking Alpha’s “Can strong AI guidance justify Broadcom’s valuation?” and MarketBeat’s “Broadcom’s biggest test yet” — argue that Q4 earnings and 2026 AI guidance will be crucial in determining whether the current valuation is sustainable. [38]
The basic tension:
- Bull case: Broadcom is a central plumbing provider to the AI boom, with multi‑year chip and software contracts, enormous backlog, and expanding partnerships across Google, Meta, OpenAI and enterprise clouds. [39]
- Bear/neutral case: At ~100x earnings, even minor disappointments in AI growth or VMware integration could lead to a sharp de‑rating.
7. Key Risks Investors Are Watching
Even as AVGO rallies, recent analyses flag several risks that could impact the stock after earnings or in 2026:
- Customer concentration & insourcing risk
Broadcom sells a large portion of its AI chips to a handful of hyperscalers. Investopedia notes that Google may develop more of its AI chips in‑house, which could reduce Broadcom’s long‑term share of that business if the transition is substantial. [40] - AI bubble concerns
With AI‑linked names trading at premium valuations, some strategists worry about a mini bubble. If AI spending normalizes or shifts to other architectures, high‑multiple stocks like AVGO could see multiple compression even if revenues keep growing. [41] - VMware integration and enterprise IT budgets
Simply Wall St and Investing.com both highlight the risk that slow or messy integration of VMware, or weaker‑than‑expected enterprise spending, could hurt Broadcom’s software growth and margins. [42] - Competition from Nvidia, Marvell and others
While Broadcom leads in custom ASICs and networking, Nvidia still dominates AI GPUs, and other players like Marvell remain active in data‑center silicon. A change in architectural preference or new competition could pressure Broadcom’s pricing power over time. [43] - Macro and rate risk
As a high‑growth, high‑multiple tech stock, Broadcom is sensitive to interest‑rate expectations. This week’s Fed decision, which Investopedia flags as a key macro event, could amplify volatility around the earnings release. [44]
8. What to Watch on December 11 — and Beyond
For anyone following Broadcom stock into and beyond the Q4 2025 report, the most important datapoints and soundbites are likely to be:
- AI revenue and backlog: Does Q4 AI revenue beat the ~$6.2 billion expectation, and how quickly does management think AI sales can grow in 2026? [45]
- 2026 AI guidance: Do management’s comments line up with the most bullish forecasts of 60%+ AI revenue growth in 2025 and potential $50+ billion in AI revenue for 2026? [46]
- VMware and software performance: Any commentary on cross‑selling, churn and pricing following the VMware acquisition will be closely scrutinized. [47]
- Capital allocation: Updates on dividends, buybacks and debt reduction will matter for investors worried about leverage and return of capital. [48]
- Management’s tone on AI demand and competition: Wall Street will be listening for any hint that AI demand is normalizing, or that big customers are shifting architectures or suppliers. [49]
9. Bottom Line
As of December 10, 2025, Broadcom stock sits at the crossroads of:
- A powerful AI growth story backed by custom silicon deals, a triple‑digit billion‑dollar backlog and aggressive long‑term revenue forecasts, and
- A stretched valuation, with the stock trading at roughly 100x trailing earnings and a wide range of fair‑value estimates, from far below today’s price (DCF models) to slightly above it (narrative‑based fair value frameworks). [50]
Whether AVGO’s current price proves to be a launchpad for the next leg higher or a plateau before a pullback will likely hinge on Thursday’s Q4 earnings report and 2026 AI guidance.
Important note: This article is for information and news purposes only. It summarizes publicly available research, forecasts and commentary as of December 10, 2025 and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell Broadcom stock. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
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