Date: December 5, 2025 – Analysis of Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) stock, news and forecasts
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Broadcom Stock Today: Price, Valuation and Trading Context
Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) enters the final month of 2025 trading close to record territory. The stock closed on December 4 at about $381 per share, with pre‑market quotes on December 5 showing AVGO in the mid‑$380s, nudging higher ahead of the open. [1]
At these levels, Broadcom’s market capitalization is roughly $1.8 trillion, placing it firmly among the world’s most valuable semiconductor and software companies. The stock trades on a trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio around 97, with a forward P/E in the mid‑40s, reflecting expectations of steep earnings growth over the next few years. [2]
Key snapshot metrics as of the latest close:
- Share price: ~$381 (pre‑market around $384–$385) [3]
- Market cap: ~$1.8 trillion [4]
- 52‑week range:$138.10 – $403.00 [5]
- Dividend: $2.36 per share annually, yield ~0.6% [6]
- TTM revenue / net income: about $59.9B revenue and $18.9B net income. [7]
Year‑to‑date, AVGO has gained more than 60%, powered by demand for AI‑centric custom silicon and the integration of VMware’s software business. [8]
1. Today’s Big Story: Samsung HBM Deal for Google AI Chips
The headline moving Broadcom stock this Friday is a fresh high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) supply deal with Samsung for Google’s AI chips.
According to Benzinga, Broadcom’s CEO Hock Tan traveled to South Korea this week to finalize a supply agreement under which Broadcom is set to lock in roughly half of Samsung’s annual HBM output, including current‑generation HBM3E and next‑generation HBM4 memory. These chips will feed Google’s 7th‑ and 8th‑generation Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), AI accelerators designed in partnership with Broadcom. [9]
Key takeaways from this deal:
- Broadcom already designs and produces Google’s TPUs; securing HBM capacity strengthens that partnership end‑to‑end. [10]
- Industry estimates now project Google’s TPU shipments to grow from around 1.5–2 million units this year to 8–9 million units by 2028, creating a powerful multi‑year volume tailwind for AVGO’s AI silicon. [11]
- The article notes that Broadcom shares are up more than 60% year‑to‑date, and the company is approaching its $403 all‑time high, underscoring how central AI‑related catalysts have become to the AVGO thesis. [12]
Wall Street analysts cited in the same report suggest that this increasing reliance on TPUs could help Broadcom outpace Nvidia in AI processor revenue growth in 2026, as hyperscalers diversify away from a single‑vendor GPU strategy. [13]
2. AI Revenue Outlook: Beyond This Year’s 50–60% Surge
A newly highlighted investor letter from Harding Loevner’s Global Equity Strategy underscores just how quickly Broadcom’s AI business is scaling:
- In Broadcom’s fiscal 2025, AI‑related revenue is already expected to grow 50–60%.
- Management signaled that AI revenue growth should accelerate further in the coming year, though it has not disclosed the exact underlying revenue figures. [14]
From that same analysis:
- In Q3 2025, Broadcom reported record revenue of roughly $16 billion, up 22% year‑over‑year. [15]
- The stock has delivered a 12‑month return of more than 100%, and is widely held by institutional investors, with over 180 hedge funds reporting positions. [16]
Separately, MarketBeat points to data from CreditSights suggesting that the top five hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle) could increase total capital expenditure by about 36% to roughly $602 billion in 2026, with around 75% of that spending (about $450 billion) earmarked for AI infrastructure. That would represent roughly 64% year‑over‑year growth in AI‑specific CapEx, a trend that directly feeds Broadcom’s custom accelerator and networking franchises. [17]
Broadcom’s own estimate of its AI serviceable addressable market (SAM) currently stands at $60–$90 billion, and management has hinted that this figure may be updated once there is better visibility—potentially in 2026, or even as early as the coming earnings cycle. [18]
3. Wall Street Sentiment: Aggressive Price Target Hikes
The most dramatic development on the analyst front this morning is Oppenheimer’s price target increase:
- Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer reaffirmed an “Outperform” rating and raised his AVGO target from $400 to $435 on December 5. [19]
This follows a wave of bullish revisions in recent days: [20]
- Susquehanna: target lifted from $400 to $450, rating “Positive”
- UBS:$415 → $472, rating “Buy”
- Bank of America:$400 → $460, rating “Buy”
- Morgan Stanley:$409 → $443, rating “Overweight”
- Goldman Sachs:$380 → $435, rating “Buy”
GuruFocus aggregates 40 one‑year price targets and finds: [21]
- Average target:$403.24 (about 6% upside from ~$381)
- High target:$535
- Low target:$218
Across 49 brokerage firms, the average rating is 1.7 on a 1–5 scale, equivalent to “Outperform”, indicating a broadly bullish institutional stance on Broadcom’s prospects. [22]
Other aggregators show slightly different numbers:
- MarketBeat cites a consensus target of about $391 (roughly 2–3% upside) and a “Buy” consensus. [23]
- StockAnalysis reports an average 12‑month target near $370.68, which is a few percent below the latest share price, even while classifying AVGO as a “Strong Buy” based on analyst ratings. [24]
Interestingly, GuruFocus’s proprietary GF Value model is far more conservative, estimating a notional “fair value” around $281, implying the stock could be overvalued if growth underwhelms. [25]
The spread between $281 and $535 illustrates how wide the band of plausible outcomes looks to the analyst community, and underscores the uncertainty embedded in the AI build‑out.
4. Earnings Countdown: What to Expect on December 11
Broadcom is set to report Q4 FY2025 results after the market close on Thursday, December 11, 2025 (5:00 p.m. ET). [26]
Consensus expectations for the quarter:
- Earnings per share (EPS): about $1.87, up roughly 32% year‑over‑year [27]
- Revenue: around $17.5 billion, up 24–25% from the same quarter last year [28]
For context, in the prior quarter Broadcom delivered: [29]
- EPS: $1.69 vs. $1.66 expected
- Revenue: $15.95 billion (+22% YoY)
- Net margin: ~31.6%
- Return on equity: ~36.6%
Zacks notes that the Q4 EPS estimate has been nudged about 0.3% higher over the last 30 days, but its Earnings ESP metric is slightly negative (-0.54%), paired with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)—a combination that makes an earnings beat harder to handicap statistically. [30]
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will be laser‑focused on:
- FY2026 guidance, especially AI revenue and custom silicon growth.
- Updated commentary on hyperscaler CapEx plans and how much of that Broadcom expects to capture. [31]
- Any revision to the AI SAM estimate, which last time helped trigger a more than 20% single‑day rally when the company raised its AI opportunity outlook in late 2024. [32]
Seeking Alpha’s latest earnings preview labels Broadcom as “entering a new stage of growth”, highlighting a 10GW custom AI accelerator deal with OpenAI and reiterating a “Strong Buy” view with a $528 price target—much higher than the Street average. [33]
5. AI Mega‑Deals: OpenAI, Hyperscalers and Custom ASICs
A detailed analysis from The Motley Fool (via Nasdaq) frames Broadcom as a potential top‑performing chip stock in 2026, largely due to its custom AI chip (ASIC) business. [34]
Highlights from that piece:
- Broadcom is a leader in data‑center networking, providing Ethernet switches, optical components and NICs that are essential to AI clusters. [35]
- VMware—acquired in 2023—strengthens Broadcom’s position in virtualization and hybrid‑cloud software, enabling enterprises to run AI workloads across public and private clouds. [36]
- The company has disclosed that its three most advanced custom‑silicon customers—widely believed to be Alphabet, Meta and ByteDance—represent a $60–$90 billion revenue opportunity in fiscal 2027. [37]
- A fourth customer, speculated to be Apple, has reportedly placed a $10 billion order for custom silicon next year. [38]
- Broadcom recently signed a 10‑gigawatt deal with OpenAI to supply custom AI accelerators. Based on prevailing GPU pricing, the article estimates the contract could be worth around $350 billion in total, with shipments projected from the second half of 2026 through 2029, potentially averaging close to $100 billion per year in chip sales. [39]
The Motley Fool argues that, even after its huge run, AVGO still looks attractive using their metrics, citing a forward P/E around 30 and a PEG ratio under 0.4, suggesting the stock is relatively inexpensive compared to its growth outlook. [40]
It’s worth noting that these valuation figures differ from other data providers, underscoring that assumptions about future earnings significantly impact how “cheap” or “expensive” Broadcom appears.
6. VMware and Software Momentum: ING Backs VCF 9.0
While AI chips dominate headlines, Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment (primarily VMware) is quietly generating its own catalysts.
On December 2, 2025, Broadcom announced that ING has selected VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0 (VCF 9) as the strategic platform for modernizing its private cloud. [41]
According to the joint press release:
- ING will use VCF 9 to expand its existing VMware environment into a multi‑region, sovereign private cloud, supporting global workload mobility and strict financial‑sector regulatory requirements.
- The platform is described as an “AI‑ready” private cloud foundation, designed to deliver cloud‑like agility while keeping sensitive data in compliant environments. [42]
This follows other VMware‑based wins in financial services and retail, such as expansions with Lloyds Banking Group and Walmart, reinforcing Broadcom’s push to position VMware Cloud Foundation as the de‑facto platform for enterprises that want private or hybrid AI infrastructure rather than going all‑in on public cloud. [43]
For AVGO shareholders, these deals matter because:
- They provide recurring, high‑margin software revenue that can smooth out notoriously cyclical hardware demand.
- They strengthen Broadcom’s cross‑sell story, linking VMware software with Broadcom’s networking and storage hardware in integrated solutions for AI‑ready data centers.
7. Ownership Trends: Heavy Institutional Support, Ongoing Insider Selling
Fresh 13F filings and insider‑trading data published today paint a nuanced picture of who is buying and selling Broadcom shares.
A new MarketBeat note reports that M Holdings Securities Inc. increased its AVGO stake by roughly 31% in Q2, now holding just over 21,000 shares valued at about $5.8 million, making Broadcom the firm’s 27th‑largest position. [44]
The same report highlights:
- Approximately 76% of Broadcom’s shares are held by institutions and hedge funds, reflecting strong professional‑investor interest. [45]
- Over the last quarter, insiders bought about 3,550 shares but sold more than 665,000 shares, with total insider sales exceeding $225 million in value. [46]
- Co‑founder Henry Samueli alone sold roughly 368,800 shares at an average price near $338, a transaction valued at about $124.6 million, while still retaining a very large stake in the company. [47]
Insider selling at high valuations is not unusual for mega‑cap tech companies, but investors tracking sentiment will note the contrast between:
- Insiders realizing gains, and
- Institutional investors increasing exposure amid optimism about long‑term AI demand.
8. How Expensive Is AVGO? Valuation and Key Risks
At nearly 100x trailing earnings and with a dividend yield below 1%, Broadcom is not a classic value stock. [48]
The bullish case rests on several assumptions:
- AI infrastructure spending remains in “hyper‑growth” mode through at least 2027–2028, validating multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar revenue opportunities from custom ASICs and data‑center networking. [49]
- Broadcom continues to win and retain long‑term contracts with hyperscalers like Alphabet, Meta and OpenAI, justifying the massive AI SAM figures currently under discussion. [50]
- The company successfully manages integration and pricing changes at VMware, avoiding a large customer exodus while shifting the business firmly to high‑margin subscription models. [51]
Key risks that could challenge today’s valuation include:
- AI CapEx volatility. Forecasts for 36% overall hyperscaler CapEx growth and 64% AI‑specific growth in 2026 are estimates, not guarantees; any slowdown or budget reallocation could compress Broadcom’s growth trajectory. [52]
- Customer concentration. A sizable share of the AI opportunity is tied to a handful of very large clients. Changes in strategy by Alphabet, Meta, OpenAI or a mystery “fourth customer” could materially alter Broadcom’s long‑term revenue path. [53]
- Competition. Nvidia remains dominant in AI GPUs; other chipmakers and foundry partners are ramping up custom‑silicon offerings, and hyperscalers may pursue more in‑house design over time. [54]
- Regulatory and customer pushback on VMware. Changes to licensing, partner programs and support models have already caused friction; if this escalates, it could weigh on the high‑margin software segment. [55]
Given these cross‑currents, it’s not surprising that valuation tools can disagree sharply—some models show AVGO as undervalued relative to its growth, others as significantly overvalued.
9. What Today’s News Means for Broadcom Stock
Putting the latest December 5 developments together, the near‑term narrative around AVGO looks like this:
- The Samsung HBM supply deal cements Broadcom’s pivotal role in Google’s TPU roadmap, potentially boosting AI chip revenue visibility out to 2028. [56]
- Analyst sentiment is getting even more bullish, with multiple top‑tier banks lifting price targets into the $435–$472 range and some independent analysts modeling targets well above $500. [57]
- Earnings on December 11 are shaping up as a major catalyst, especially if Broadcom updates its AI SAM or gives strong FY2026 guidance for AI‑related revenue. [58]
- VMware’s VCF 9.0 traction with blue‑chip customers like ING highlights the software and hybrid‑cloud side of the story, which may become more important if hardware cycles turn choppy. [59]
For investors and traders watching AVGO into year‑end, the key questions now are:
- Can Broadcom’s AI growth justify its current premium valuation?
- Will the December 11 earnings call provide enough upside surprise—on numbers or on long‑term AI commentary—to drive a fresh breakout above the $403 high?
- How durable are these mega‑contracts with OpenAI, Alphabet and other hyperscalers if the AI spending cycle eventually normalizes?
As always, prospective investors should consider their own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio diversification before making any decision related to Broadcom stock.
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