BSE Share Price Today, 9 December 2025: Why BSE Ltd Stock Is Falling and What Analysts Expect Next

BSE Ltd (NSE: BSE), the listed operator of Asia’s oldest stock exchange, is back in the spotlight – this time for a sharp intraday drop after a year of blockbuster returns and record earnings.

As of late morning on 9 December 2025, BSE shares were trading around ₹2,740–2,750, down roughly 2–3% versus Monday’s close of ₹2,798.80. Intraday, the stock has swung between about ₹2,630 and ₹2,795, with the 52‑week range standing at roughly ₹1,227 to ₹3,030. At these levels, BSE’s market capitalisation is about ₹1.15 lakh crore, with a trailing P/E near 64x and forward P/E around 48x. ^[1]

Despite today’s weakness, the exchange remains a huge long‑term winner: over the past year, the stock is still up more than 50%, and over the last three years it has delivered a staggering four‑digit percentage return. ^[2]

Below is a deep dive into why BSE is falling today, how its derivatives-heavy earnings story looks after Q2 FY26, what brokers are forecasting, and what risks investors need to track.

BSE share price today: pressure after a furious rally

Live action (9 December 2025)
Data from multiple exchanges and aggregators shows BSE trading around ₹2,746.80 at 11:30 AM IST, down about 1.9% on the day. Volume is slightly above average at nearly 4.9 million shares, and the stock is oscillating between ₹2,630 and ₹2,795. ^[3]

Market trackers like Mint and Moneycontrol also flag that: ^[4]

The stock is down about 3% over the last five trading sessions,
Yet still up ~55–60% year‑to‑date in 2025,
And has gained more than 50% over the past 12 months. ^[5]

In other words, today’s slide is happening after a powerful multi‑month bull run that took BSE to within touching distance of its lifetime high of ₹3,030. ^[6]

Why is BSE stock falling on 9 December 2025?

1. Renewed nerves over F&O rules

The immediate trigger is fresh anxiety around proposed changes in India’s derivatives (F&O) market, where BSE has recently become a serious challenger to NSE.

A morning note from Business Upturn reports that BSE shares fell over 3% today, slipping towards ₹2,708, as traders grew cautious after “renewed discussions” around changes to the F&O segment. ^[7]

This anxiety is not new:

In August 2025, UBS warned that every 10% drop in options premium average daily turnover could shave 6% off BSE’s profit, highlighting how sensitive earnings have become to index options volume. ^[8]
In September 2025, BSE tumbled more than 4% in a single session on reports that SEBI might move towards ending weekly F&O contracts and shifting to longer‑tenor derivatives, which would hit the weekly options boom that has powered BSE’s growth. ^[9]

Today’s decline is essentially that same regulatory ghost re‑appearing just as the stock is priced for perfection.

2. A weak broader market isn’t helping

It’s not just BSE. The overall Indian market is jittery:

The Economic Times notes that on 9 December, the Sensex slumped about 700 points and Nifty slipped below 25,750, marking one of the steepest declines in more than two months, as investors fretted over the upcoming US Federal Reserve decision and global trade uncertainty. ^[10]
Another ET piece describes indices logging their sharpest fall since late September, with concerns over foreign flows and global rates weighing on sentiment. ^[11]

When macro fear rises, high‑beta, richly valued financials tied to trading activity—like exchanges and brokers—tend to get hit hardest. BSE fits that bill perfectly.

Under the hood: BSE’s Q2 FY26 was spectacular

Today’s selling comes against the backdrop of blazing fundamentals.

Record results and tenth strong quarter in a row

For Q2 FY26 (September 2025 quarter), BSE reported: ^[12]

Operating revenue ~₹1,068–1,070 crore,
- Up ~44% year‑on‑year,
- Up ~12% quarter‑on‑quarter.
Net profit about ₹558 crore,
- Up ~61% YoY,
- Up ~5% QoQ.
Operating EBITDA ~₹680 crore,
- Margin of roughly 64%, up sharply from ~52% a year earlier.
Derivatives engine:
- Equity derivatives contracts in Q2 FY26 crossed ~642 crore contracts,
- Generating around ₹624 crore of revenue from this segment alone.
StAR MF platform:
- Transactions grew 24% YoY to about 20.1 crore,
- Retaining an ~89% market share in mutual fund transaction volumes.

Brokerage commentaries underline just how strong the trend is:

Motilal Oswal highlighted 44% YoY and 12% QoQ revenue growth, driven largely by a 57% jump in transaction charges, and raised FY26–28 earnings estimates by mid‑teens percentages. ^[13]
Centrum pointed to an 81% YoY surge in equity derivatives revenue and upgraded medium‑term PAT growth forecasts to above 30% CAGR. ^[14]

On virtually any fundamental scorecard—revenue growth, profit growth, margins, ROE—BSE looks like a hyper‑growth financial infrastructure play rather than a sleepy 150‑year‑old exchange. ^[15]

Valuations: great business, very expensive stock

The problem for prospective buyers is not the business; it’s how much you have to pay for it.

Key valuation markers as of early trade on 9 December: ^[16]

Market cap: ~₹1.15 trillion
TTM revenue: ~₹39.1 billion
TTM net income: ~₹18.1 billion
TTM EPS: ~₹44
P/E (TTM): ~64x
Forward P/E: ~48x
P/B: ~20–21x (based on book value of ~₹5,556 crore)
P/S (TTM): ~31x

Independent valuation platform Smart‑Investing, using multiple intrinsic value models, estimates BSE’s “fair value” around ₹522.5 per share and calculates that the stock is trading at roughly a 436% premium to that estimate (based on the 8 December closing price of ₹2,798.80). ^[17]

Screener’s automatic checklist, meanwhile, praises BSE for being almost debt‑free, delivering ~65% profit CAGR over the last five years and maintaining a healthy dividend payout ratio over 40%, but flags that the stock trades at more than 20x book value. ^[18]

So the market is essentially saying:

“Yes, this is a fantastic franchise – but we already know that, and we’re willing to pay tech‑style multiples for it.”

That leaves very little room for disappointment on earnings, regulation or market share.

What brokers and analysts are saying about BSE now

Despite valuation worries, analyst opinion is broadly positive, though price targets cluster not far from where the stock already trades.

Big global and domestic broker views

Recent notes around the November Q2 results paint this picture: ^[19]

UBS (Aug 2025)
- Rating: Buy
- Target:₹3,200
- Thesis: volumes moving from NSE to BSE are not fully priced in. UBS nonetheless warns that every 10% decline in options premium ADT could reduce BSE’s profit by about 6%, underscoring derivatives dependency.
Jefferies (Nov 12, 2025)
- Rating: Buy
- Target:₹2,930
- Focuses on strong derivative momentum and clarity on the new Settlement Guarantee Fund (SGF) policy, which requires BSE to contribute 5% of transaction revenue to the SGF. Jefferies sees this as improving risk management without derailing growth.
Nuvama
- Rating: Buy
- Target:₹3,130
- Emphasises BSE’s improving market share in index options and models robust earnings growth, valuing the stock at ~45x P/E plus a 15% stake in CDSL.
Motilal Oswal
- Rating: Neutral
- Target:₹2,800
- Sees Q2 as a strong beat but believes the current price already factors in much of the good news, valuing BSE at about 40x Sep‑FY27E EPS.
Centrum Broking
- Rating: Buy
- Target:₹2,701
- Models 31–34% CAGR in PAT and core PAT over FY26–28, but also notes that the stock is trading near 40x forward earnings.
Goldman Sachs (Business Upturn summary)
- Rating: Neutral
- Target:₹2,460
- Highlights Q2 revenue growth of 44% YoY and strong derivatives volumes, but stays cautious on valuations and regulatory risk. ^[20]

An NDTV summary of Bloomberg’s analyst universe (as of August 2025) notes that out of 13 analysts covering BSE, 8 rated it “Buy”, 4 “Hold” and 1 “Sell”, with the average 12‑month target implying around 14% upside from then‑prevailing prices. ^[21]

TradingView’s consensus data shows an average target near ₹2,800, with a high around ₹3,303 and a low near ₹2,202, again suggesting modest upside with wide uncertainty. ^[22]

Given today’s price around ₹2,747: ^[23]

Some targets (Goldman Sachs, Centrum) sit below or roughly at market,
Others (Jefferies, Nuvama, UBS) imply mid‑teens upside in optimistic scenarios.

The overall message: Street likes the business, but not everyone is comfortable with the current valuation and regulatory overhang.

Regulatory overhang: weekly expiries, F&O rules and profit sensitivity

BSE’s renaissance has been powered largely by a massive surge in index options trading as retail and institutional traders flocked to its low‑fee, high‑leverage contracts.

That is exactly what regulators are now scrutinising:

Shift of weekly expiry day
In June 2025, BSE announced that its weekly equity derivatives expiry would shift to Thursdays from Tuesdays, in line with SEBI’s rule that each exchange can offer only one benchmark weekly options contract and expiries must fall on either Tuesday or Thursday. A Reuters report at the time highlighted concerns that this could dent BSE’s derivative market share and earnings, with some brokers cutting target prices. ^[24]
Potential curbs on weekly options
Media reports in September and October suggested SEBI might push to lengthen the tenor of derivative contracts and possibly phase out weekly expiries, prompting sharp drawdowns in BSE’s share price. ^[25]
SEBI chair’s “cannot just shut down weekly expiries” remark
On 31 October, SEBI Chair Tuhin Kanta Pandey said that the weekly options expiry mechanism “cannot just be shut down,” signalling that any reforms would likely be gradual and consultative. His comments triggered a swift intraday recovery in BSE and Angel One shares, easing some of the regulatory panic. ^[26]
UBS profit‑sensitivity math
UBS’s analysis – that a 10% drop in options premium ADT could cut BSE’s profit by about 6% – has become a reference point for how fragile the earnings ramp could be if SEBI seriously clamps down on speculative derivatives. ^[27]

Put bluntly: BSE’s current earnings power is leveraged to derivatives exuberance, and regulators are explicitly debating how much exuberance is healthy.

Strategic moves: pre‑open session, SGF policy and India INX

While regulators debate derivatives, BSE is busy tweaking its own market structure and expanding adjacencies.

Pre‑open session for index and stock futures

A circular and subsequent coverage on NDTV Profit confirm that BSE will introduce a pre‑open session for index and stock futures from 8 December 2025, mirroring the pre‑open it already runs in the equity cash segment. ^[28]

The exchange will reuse its existing Enhanced Trading Interface (ETI) message formats, making the change relatively seamless for high‑frequency participants.
The move should, in theory, improve price discovery, reduce opening volatility and make the derivatives platform more institutional‑friendly.

In the long run, this kind of plumbing work matters as much as headline fee cuts when exchanges fight for order flow.

SGF (Settlement Guarantee Fund) contribution: 5% of transaction revenue

From September 2025, BSE has begun contributing 5% of derivatives transaction revenue to its SGF, aligning with new risk‑management norms. Brokerages like Goldman Sachs and Jefferies view the clearer SGF policy as positive for governance and systemic stability, even if it modestly crimps margins. ^[29]

India INX and other investments

Corporate filings and updates show that BSE recently invested about ₹41.3 crore in India INX via a rights issue, raising its stake to roughly 65%, signalling continued faith in offshore and GIFT City–linked opportunities. ^[30]

If India INX scales meaningfully, it could diversify BSE’s revenue away from the hyper‑competitive domestic derivatives duopoly, though that’s still a long‑term story.

Technical picture: from breakout to wobble

Technical analysts had turned distinctly bullish on BSE by late October:

A Times of India piece noted that after a 15% one‑month rally, BSE was trading above all key simple moving averages, with RSI near 67 and strong support around ₹2,000, while eyeing potential upside towards ₹2,690–3,000. ^[31]

As of 9 December:

The stock has pulled back from the ₹2,850–2,900 zone to the mid‑₹2,700s,
Intraday lows near ₹2,630 line up as the first short‑term support, with the ₹2,000 region still a major long‑term line in the sand,
Stockanalysis data shows the RSI cooling to around 47, indicating neither overbought nor oversold territory after the recent correction. ^[32]

Short‑term traders are likely to frame the situation as rally‑pause‑or‑reversal: can BSE hold above the ₹2,600–2,650 band and retest ₹2,850–3,000, or will regulatory headlines and profit‑taking drag it toward the ₹2,200–2,300 zone flagged by more cautious brokers?

Long‑term story: structurally strong, cyclically risky

Stepping back from daily noise, three big truths stand out.

1. Fundamentals are exceptional

Across multiple data providers: ^[33]

5‑year revenue CAGR: ~39%
5‑year profit CAGR: ~65%
3‑year profit CAGR: ~70%
Return on equity (last year): ~36%
Debt: effectively zero on the consolidated balance sheet
Cash flows: strong and improving, with rising operating cash generation

BSE is no longer just a sleepy equity‑cash venue; it’s a multi‑product capital‑markets infrastructure company backed by:

Explosive index options turnover,
A dominant mutual fund transaction platform (StAR MF),
A steadily growing SME and main‑board listing franchise,
And ancillary data, index and clearing services.

2. Valuation leaves almost no margin of safety

Smart‑Investing’s intrinsic value models, Screener’s P/B flags and straightforward P/E math all say the same thing: you are paying a premium normally reserved for high‑growth software or consumer franchises, not a regulated exchange whose economics are partially at SEBI’s mercy. ^[34]

If everything goes right—derivatives volumes keep compounding, SEBI moves slowly, and India’s equity culture deepens—the premium might persist. But any serious shock to F&O activity or a negative regulatory surprise could trigger both an earnings and a multiple contraction.

3. Earnings are acutely sensitive to F&O volumes

UBS’s framework (6% profit hit per 10% drop in options premium ADT) is a stark reminder: BSE’s current profitability is geared to a specific market structure that regulators are actively debating. ^[35]

That doesn’t make the stock “bad”, but it does mean the range of outcomes is wide:

Bullish scenario:
- Weekly expiries survive with modest tweaks,
- BSE consolidates or grows its options market share,
- Cash and data businesses quietly catch up,
- Valuation stays rich or gets richer as earnings compound.
Bearish scenario:
- SEBI materially curbs weekly options or leverage,
- Retail spec volumes fall more than expected,
- Profitability cracks and the market derates the stock toward “normal” financial‑services multiples.

Key things for investors to watch after 9 December 2025

For readers tracking BSE from here, the crucial signposts over the next few quarters are:

SEBI consultation papers and board decisions
- Details on derivatives tenor, weekly expiries and leverage will directly affect BSE’s index options engine.
Options premium ADT and market share vs NSE
- Volumes and premium turnover data will reveal whether BSE can keep expanding in derivatives or has already peaked.
Non‑derivative growth
- Progress in StAR MF, SME listings, data services and India INX will determine how diversified earnings become.
Capital allocation and shareholder returns
- BSE’s history of generous dividends and potential for buybacks could cushion volatility if growth slows. ^[36]
Next earnings date – Q3 FY26
- The next scheduled earnings release is currently expected around February 2026, when the market will look for confirmation that Q2’s momentum is sustainable. ^[37]

Bottom line

On 9 December 2025, BSE Ltd stock is under pressure because:

The broader market is selling off,
Regulatory chatter around F&O has resurfaced,
And valuations are so elevated that even small wobbles invite profit‑taking.

At the same time, fundamentals remain extremely strong after a record Q2, and most brokers still see some upside, albeit with widely differing target prices and clear warnings about regulatory risk.

For anyone following BSE—whether as a long‑term investor, a derivatives trader or just a market‑structure nerd—the story from here is all about how India chooses to regulate speculation without killing innovation. BSE sits right at the fault line between those two forces.