BULLISH BREAKOUT: Google’s $3B Backstop Rockets TeraWulf (WULF) Stock to Multi-Year High

• Business: TeraWulf is a vertically‐integrated, zero‐carbon digital infrastructure company specializing in industrial-scale Bitcoin mining and high-performance computing (HPC) data centers Terawulf. It owns the 50 MW Lake Mariner facility in New York (formerly Nautilus) and is rapidly expanding to host AI and enterprise HPC workloads.
• Recent News (Oct 2025): In mid‐August 2025 TeraWulf announced two 10‐year AI hosting agreements (200+ MW) with Fluidstack, backed by Google’s financing Terawulf Terawulf. Google provided a $1.8B loan backstop and warrants for ~8% equity at that time Terawulf. By Aug.18, Google increased its support by an additional $1.4B and raised its stake from 8% to ~14% ts2.tech, sending WULF sharply higher. On Sept.27 CoinDesk reported TeraWulf is arranging a ~$3B debt raise (high-yield bonds/loans) to fund further expansion, with Morgan Stanley advising (per CEO Patrick Fleury) Coindesk Coindesk.
• Stock Price: As of Oct 9, 2025, WULF trades around $13.08 (intraday high $13.39) Investing, near a 3.5-year high. That is roughly +117% year-to-date (from last Oct) and ~$5.0B market cap Tickernerd. The stock climbed ~83% in August and ~+21% in September Stocktwits. Recent momentum continued: Oct.9 saw a +6.3% jump on heavy volume Investing.
• Technicals: Technical indicators are bullish. WULF just hit new 52-week (multi-year) highs Chartmill and trades above its rising 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages Chartmill. ChartMill rates its technical score 10/10, noting WULF “outperforms 94%” of its peers Chartmill Chartmill. The 14-day RSI is ≈72 (overbought) Chartmill, reflecting strong buying pressure. Key support levels are ~$12.08 and ~$10.82 Chartmill. Many analysts see the long-term chart as a breakout from a 2022–2025 cup-&-handle base Tradingview.
• Fundamentals: In Q2 2025 (ended 6/30/25), TeraWulf reported revenue of $47.6M (up +34% YoY) Terawulf. Gross margin was strong (cost of revenue excluding depreciation 46.4%), but GAAP net loss widened to $(18.37)M (vs. $(10.88)M a year ago) Terawulf, due to halving effects and higher power costs. Non-GAAP EBITDA was $14.5M (vs. $19.5M in Q2 2024) Terawulf. The company mined 485 BTC (vs. 699 BTC) reflecting the April halving Terawulf. Total BTC mining capacity is 12.8 EH/s (up 45.5% YoY) Terawulf.
• Balance Sheet: As of June 30, 2025, TeraWulf held ~$90M in cash and crypto, and ~$500M in 2.75% convertible debt due 2030 Terawulf. Outstanding shares are ~392 million Terawulf. Management expects HPC hosting revenues to begin in Q3 2025 as new AI-optimized data halls (WULF Den, CB-1, CB-2) come online Terawulf Terawulf.
• Leadership: CEO Paul Prager says the company is making “remarkable progress” on its HPC projects, having “commenced earning revenues in July” with its first AI datacenter (WULF Den) and guiding CB-1 in October and CB-2 in Q4 Terawulf. He notes strong demand from hyperscale AI customers, highlighting 500 MW interconnection approval (expanding to 750 MW) at Lake Mariner Terawulf. CFO Patrick Fleury added that Q3 will mark “a key inflection point” as HPC hosting revenue starts Terawulf. Prager also declared on social media that the Google-backed AI deals are “a game changer in the industry” Bitget.
• Analyst Views: Wall Street is broadly bullish. The 11 covering analysts rate WULF an overall Strong Buy Tickernerd. The median 12-month price target is about $13.00 (up ~5-10% from current) Tickernerd, with a consensus range from $6.50 up to $21.50 Tickernerd. Notably, Roth Capital (Darren Aftahi) recently reiterated a $21.50 target Stockanalysis, implying 60%-plus upside, based on accelerating HPC bookings. Rosenblatt (Chris Brendler) maintains a ~$15.00 target Tickernerd. (As StockAnalysis.com notes, the average target ~$12.35 implies modest change Stockanalysis.) Analysts praise TeraWulf’s “expanding AI infrastructure” while cautioning on its high valuation (~30× P/S) and execution risk.

Recent Developments

Google-Backed AI Deals: In mid-August 2025 TeraWulf unveiled two 10-year co-location agreements with Fluidstack for AI workloads Terawulf Terawulf. These contracts (200+ MW at Lake Mariner) anchor ~$3.7 B of initial revenue (up to $8.7 B with extensions) Terawulf. Google Inc. agreed to backstop $1.8 B of Fluidstack’s lease obligations and took warrants for ~41 M shares (~8% equity) Terawulf. Shortly after, Google deepened its commitment: on Aug.18 it provided an additional $1.4 B backstop, gaining warrants for ~32.5 M more shares (bringing its total commitment to $3.2 B and stake to 14%) ts2.tech Bitget. The new funding secures project debt financing for the CB-5 data center expansion. CEO Prager said this “strengthens our strategic alignment with Google” on AI infrastructure Bitget.

$3 Billion Debt Financing: As reported Sept.27, TeraWulf is lining up a ~$3 B debt raise to finance its growth, working with Morgan Stanley Coindesk. This will likely include high-yield bonds or loans, with Google’s involvement expected to help obtain favorable terms. The CoinDesk article notes Google already owns 14% of WULF and has supported other crypto miners (like Cipher) on similar AI deals Coindesk. The certainty of this financing and Google’s backing have underpinned recent share gains. After the news, TeraWulf stock briefly dipped ~1% in late Sept (profit-taking), but quickly resumed its uptrend into October Coindesk Investing.

Momentum and Sentiment: Retail sentiment on social platforms is very bullish. On Oct.9, WULF hit ~$13.39 intraday Stocktwits, its highest since 2021. StockTwits notes WULF has gained every month since April 2025, with August alone up +83% Stocktwits. Volume and online chatter spiked: by Oct.9 WULF was among the top trending tickers on StockTwits, with “bullish” sentiment surging. Stocktwits This enthusiasm is driven by the narrative of TeraWulf pivoting from a niche Bitcoin miner into a major AI-ready data center operator.

Technical Analysis

WULF’s chart shows a clear uptrend. The stock has broken above key resistance levels and set new highs. On a weekly chart, analysts identify a cup-and-handle breakout forming since 2022 – a classic long-term bullish pattern Tradingview. In the last 30 days (Sept 9–Oct 9), WULF rose from ~$10.30 to ~$13.08 Investing (+27%). In that span it traded in an expanding range ($9.13–$13.385). It is now trading near the top of its recent range Chartmill. All moving averages slope up: the 20-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs are rising and the price is above all of them Chartmill, indicating strong momentum. The Relative Strength Index (14) is ≈72 Chartmill, which is in overbought territory (suggesting a short-term pullback or consolidation might occur) but reflects the current buying wave. ChartMill’s technical model rates WULF a perfect 10/10, outperforming 97% of stocks in the last year Chartmill. Key support levels (from ChartMill) are ~$12.08 (daily trendline) and ~$10.82 (multi-timeframe zone) Chartmill. Resistance is currently near the recent high ~$13.09 Chartmill; a sustained break above this could propel WULF toward $15–16.

Fundamental Analysis

TeraWulf is in the midst of rapid growth. Its revenue has risen sharply as mining capacity expanded and Bitcoin prices recovered. In Q2 2025, revenue reached $47.6M, up 34% from $35.6M a year ago Terawulf. This was driven by higher BTC prices and a 45.5% increase in mining hashrate (to 12.8 EH/s) Terawulf. However, GAAP profitability remains challenged. Q2 GAAP net loss was $(18.37)M (EPS -$0.05) versus $(10.88)M a year ago Terawulf. The year-over-year loss widened mainly because of the Bitcoin halving (fewer coins mined) and higher power expenses. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $14.5M (from $19.5M) Terawulf. Looking ahead, management expects margins to improve as AI hosting ramps up: the first HPC revenue (from WULF Den) hit in July 2025, with CB-1 and CB-2 due in Q4 Terawulf. TeraWulf has an ambitious build-out: its contracts (Fluidstack) could bring ~$3.7B in 10-year revenue (potentially $8.7B with extensions) Terawulf, with projected site NOI margins ~85% Terawulf.

On the balance sheet, TeraWulf remains levered. As of June 30, 2025 it had ~$90M of cash+crypto (vs. $274M at YE 2024) and ~$500M of debt (2.75% convertibles) Terawulf. The company spent down cash to fund construction. It holds about 392 million shares outstanding Terawulf, giving a market cap near $5B. Management has indicated the $90M excludes incoming proceeds from recent deals; in fact, a new convertible note offering (~$850M) was closed in Sept 2025 (per a press release) to help finance CB-4 and CB-5. With Google’s backing, TeraWulf expects its credit profile to improve. Free cash flow is currently negative (due to capex), but analysts forecast a turnaround as mining receipts and high-margin hosting fees grow. (For perspective, StockAnalysis projects 2025 revenue ~$206.9M and 2026 ~$418.7M Stockanalysis, largely reflecting the AI contracts and expanded mining.)

Analyst Forecasts & Outlook

Most analysts expect upside from current levels. Broker consensus is a Strong Buy: 10 of 11 analysts rate WULF a Buy, 1 a Hold Tickernerd. The median 12-month target is about $13.00 Tickernerd, roughly in line with the recent price; the average is ~$12.35 Stockanalysis. However, top bulls are much higher: Roth Capital’s Darren Aftahi has one of the loftiest targets at $21.50 Stockanalysis (implying +65% upside). Rosenblatt’s Chris Brendler raised his to ~$15.00 recently Tickernerd. These forecasts hinge on TeraWulf executing its transition: capturing AI hosting revenue, managing costs, and scaling efficiently.

Key risks temper the story. TeraWulf’s valuation is already rich (trading above 30× forward sales) and it still lacks sustained profitability. Its business shift from pure mining to AI hosting is promising but complex – not all miners succeed with data centers. Analysts caution that any delay or cost overruns in the multi-hundred-MW build-out could stall the stock. Near-term, the stock is sensitive to Bitcoin’s price swings and general market sentiment. If crypto prices tumble, mining revenue falls.

In summary, TeraWulf’s stock embodies a high-growth, high-volatility play. The combination of zero-carbon crypto mining and hyperscale AI data centers has captured investor imagination. With Google’s multi-billion-dollar backing and massive AI contracts now public, WULF has surged to multi-year highs. If management delivers on those contracts, future cash flows could justify a much higher stock price. Many analysts see the year-end 2026 price potentially well above current levels, arguing that the market is underappreciating the value of its secured revenues Bitget Tickernerd. (For example, the Fluidstack deals alone could generate $6.7–$16 billion over their terms Bitget.) On the other hand, skeptics point out the need for continued capital raises and the challenges of scaling. In our view, TeraWulf’s short-term outlook remains bullish, but investors should watch for technical pullbacks and fundamental execution.

Sources: Company financial releases Terawulf Terawulf; Bloomberg/CoinDesk news Coindesk; investor presentations and filings Bitget Chartmill; analyst reports Stockanalysis Tickernerd; and market commentary (Stocktwits, TS2.tech) Stocktwits ts2.tech. All data current as of Oct 9, 2025.