BULLISH BREAKOUT: Google’s $3B Backstop Rockets TeraWulf (WULF) Stock to Multi-Year High!

Business: TeraWulf is a vertically‐integrated, zero‐carbon digital infrastructure company specializing in industrial-scale Bitcoin mining and high-performance computing (HPC) data centers ^[1]. It owns the 50 MW Lake Mariner facility in New York (formerly Nautilus) and is rapidly expanding to host AI and enterprise HPC workloads.
Recent News (Oct 2025): In mid‐August 2025 TeraWulf announced two 10‐year AI hosting agreements (200+ MW) with Fluidstack, backed by Google’s financing ^[2] ^[3]. Google provided a $1.8B loan backstop and warrants for ~8% equity at that time ^[4]. By Aug.18, Google increased its support by an additional $1.4B and raised its stake from 8% to ~14% ^[5], sending WULF sharply higher. On Sept.27 CoinDesk reported TeraWulf is arranging a ~$3B debt raise (high-yield bonds/loans) to fund further expansion, with Morgan Stanley advising (per CEO Patrick Fleury) ^[6] ^[7].
Stock Price: As of Oct 9, 2025, WULF trades around $13.08 (intraday high $13.39) ^[8], near a 3.5-year high. That is roughly +117% year-to-date (from last Oct) and ~$5.0B market cap ^[9]. The stock climbed ~83% in August and ~+21% in September ^[10]. Recent momentum continued: Oct.9 saw a +6.3% jump on heavy volume ^[11].
Technicals: Technical indicators are bullish. WULF just hit new 52-week (multi-year) highs ^[12] and trades above its rising 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages ^[13]. ChartMill rates its technical score 10/10, noting WULF “outperforms 94%” of its peers ^[14] ^[15]. The 14-day RSI is ≈72 (overbought) ^[16], reflecting strong buying pressure. Key support levels are ~$12.08 and ~$10.82 ^[17]. Many analysts see the long-term chart as a breakout from a 2022–2025 cup-&-handle base ^[18].
Fundamentals: In Q2 2025 (ended 6/30/25), TeraWulf reported revenue of $47.6M (up +34% YoY) ^[19]. Gross margin was strong (cost of revenue excluding depreciation 46.4%), but GAAP net loss widened to $(18.37)M (vs. $(10.88)M a year ago) ^[20], due to halving effects and higher power costs. Non-GAAP EBITDA was $14.5M (vs. $19.5M in Q2 2024) ^[21]. The company mined 485 BTC (vs. 699 BTC) reflecting the April halving ^[22]. Total BTC mining capacity is 12.8 EH/s (up 45.5% YoY) ^[23].
Balance Sheet: As of June 30, 2025, TeraWulf held ~$90M in cash and crypto, and ~$500M in 2.75% convertible debt due 2030 ^[24]. Outstanding shares are ~392 million ^[25]. Management expects HPC hosting revenues to begin in Q3 2025 as new AI-optimized data halls (WULF Den, CB-1, CB-2) come online ^[26] ^[27].
Leadership: CEO Paul Prager says the company is making “remarkable progress” on its HPC projects, having “commenced earning revenues in July” with its first AI datacenter (WULF Den) and guiding CB-1 in October and CB-2 in Q4 ^[28]. He notes strong demand from hyperscale AI customers, highlighting 500 MW interconnection approval (expanding to 750 MW) at Lake Mariner ^[29]. CFO Patrick Fleury added that Q3 will mark “a key inflection point” as HPC hosting revenue starts ^[30]. Prager also declared on social media that the Google-backed AI deals are “a game changer in the industry” ^[31].
Analyst Views: Wall Street is broadly bullish. The 11 covering analysts rate WULF an overall Strong Buy ^[32]. The median 12-month price target is about $13.00 (up ~5-10% from current) ^[33], with a consensus range from $6.50 up to $21.50 ^[34]. Notably, Roth Capital (Darren Aftahi) recently reiterated a $21.50 target ^[35], implying 60%-plus upside, based on accelerating HPC bookings. Rosenblatt (Chris Brendler) maintains a ~$15.00 target ^[36]. (As StockAnalysis.com notes, the average target ~$12.35 implies modest change ^[37].) Analysts praise TeraWulf’s “expanding AI infrastructure” while cautioning on its high valuation (~30× P/S) and execution risk.

Recent Developments

Google-Backed AI Deals: In mid-August 2025 TeraWulf unveiled two 10-year co-location agreements with Fluidstack for AI workloads ^[38] ^[39]. These contracts (200+ MW at Lake Mariner) anchor ~$3.7 B of initial revenue (up to $8.7 B with extensions) ^[40]. Google Inc. agreed to backstop $1.8 B of Fluidstack’s lease obligations and took warrants for ~41 M shares (~8% equity) ^[41]. Shortly after, Google deepened its commitment: on Aug.18 it provided an additional $1.4 B backstop, gaining warrants for ~32.5 M more shares (bringing its total commitment to $3.2 B and stake to 14%) ^[42] ^[43]. The new funding secures project debt financing for the CB-5 data center expansion. CEO Prager said this “strengthens our strategic alignment with Google” on AI infrastructure ^[44].

$3 Billion Debt Financing: As reported Sept.27, TeraWulf is lining up a ~$3 B debt raise to finance its growth, working with Morgan Stanley ^[45]. This will likely include high-yield bonds or loans, with Google’s involvement expected to help obtain favorable terms. The CoinDesk article notes Google already owns 14% of WULF and has supported other crypto miners (like Cipher) on similar AI deals ^[46]. The certainty of this financing and Google’s backing have underpinned recent share gains. After the news, TeraWulf stock briefly dipped ~1% in late Sept (profit-taking), but quickly resumed its uptrend into October ^[47] ^[48].

Momentum and Sentiment: Retail sentiment on social platforms is very bullish. On Oct.9, WULF hit ~$13.39 intraday ^[49], its highest since 2021. StockTwits notes WULF has gained every month since April 2025, with August alone up +83% ^[50]. Volume and online chatter spiked: by Oct.9 WULF was among the top trending tickers on StockTwits, with “bullish” sentiment surging. ^[51] This enthusiasm is driven by the narrative of TeraWulf pivoting from a niche Bitcoin miner into a major AI-ready data center operator.

Technical Analysis

WULF’s chart shows a clear uptrend. The stock has broken above key resistance levels and set new highs. On a weekly chart, analysts identify a cup-and-handle breakout forming since 2022 – a classic long-term bullish pattern ^[52]. In the last 30 days (Sept 9–Oct 9), WULF rose from ~$10.30 to ~$13.08 ^[53] (+27%). In that span it traded in an expanding range ($9.13–$13.385). It is now trading near the top of its recent range ^[54]. All moving averages slope up: the 20-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs are rising and the price is above all of them ^[55], indicating strong momentum. The Relative Strength Index (14) is ≈72 ^[56], which is in overbought territory (suggesting a short-term pullback or consolidation might occur) but reflects the current buying wave. ChartMill’s technical model rates WULF a perfect 10/10, outperforming 97% of stocks in the last year ^[57]. Key support levels (from ChartMill) are ~$12.08 (daily trendline) and ~$10.82 (multi-timeframe zone) ^[58]. Resistance is currently near the recent high ~$13.09 ^[59]; a sustained break above this could propel WULF toward $15–16.

Fundamental Analysis

TeraWulf is in the midst of rapid growth. Its revenue has risen sharply as mining capacity expanded and Bitcoin prices recovered. In Q2 2025, revenue reached $47.6M, up 34% from $35.6M a year ago ^[60]. This was driven by higher BTC prices and a 45.5% increase in mining hashrate (to 12.8 EH/s) ^[61]. However, GAAP profitability remains challenged. Q2 GAAP net loss was $(18.37)M (EPS -$0.05) versus $(10.88)M a year ago ^[62]. The year-over-year loss widened mainly because of the Bitcoin halving (fewer coins mined) and higher power expenses. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $14.5M (from $19.5M) ^[63]. Looking ahead, management expects margins to improve as AI hosting ramps up: the first HPC revenue (from WULF Den) hit in July 2025, with CB-1 and CB-2 due in Q4 ^[64]. TeraWulf has an ambitious build-out: its contracts (Fluidstack) could bring ~$3.7B in 10-year revenue (potentially $8.7B with extensions) ^[65], with projected site NOI margins ~85% ^[66].

On the balance sheet, TeraWulf remains levered. As of June 30, 2025 it had ~$90M of cash+crypto (vs. $274M at YE 2024) and ~$500M of debt (2.75% convertibles) ^[67]. The company spent down cash to fund construction. It holds about 392 million shares outstanding ^[68], giving a market cap near $5B. Management has indicated the $90M excludes incoming proceeds from recent deals; in fact, a new convertible note offering (~$850M) was closed in Sept 2025 (per a press release) to help finance CB-4 and CB-5. With Google’s backing, TeraWulf expects its credit profile to improve. Free cash flow is currently negative (due to capex), but analysts forecast a turnaround as mining receipts and high-margin hosting fees grow. (For perspective, StockAnalysis projects 2025 revenue ~$206.9M and 2026 ~$418.7M ^[69], largely reflecting the AI contracts and expanded mining.)

Analyst Forecasts & Outlook

Most analysts expect upside from current levels. Broker consensus is a Strong Buy: 10 of 11 analysts rate WULF a Buy, 1 a Hold ^[70]. The median 12-month target is about $13.00 ^[71], roughly in line with the recent price; the average is ~$12.35 ^[72]. However, top bulls are much higher: Roth Capital’s Darren Aftahi has one of the loftiest targets at $21.50 ^[73] (implying +65% upside). Rosenblatt’s Chris Brendler raised his to ~$15.00 recently ^[74]. These forecasts hinge on TeraWulf executing its transition: capturing AI hosting revenue, managing costs, and scaling efficiently.

Key risks temper the story. TeraWulf’s valuation is already rich (trading above 30× forward sales) and it still lacks sustained profitability. Its business shift from pure mining to AI hosting is promising but complex – not all miners succeed with data centers. Analysts caution that any delay or cost overruns in the multi-hundred-MW build-out could stall the stock. Near-term, the stock is sensitive to Bitcoin’s price swings and general market sentiment. If crypto prices tumble, mining revenue falls.

In summary, TeraWulf’s stock embodies a high-growth, high-volatility play. The combination of zero-carbon crypto mining and hyperscale AI data centers has captured investor imagination. With Google’s multi-billion-dollar backing and massive AI contracts now public, WULF has surged to multi-year highs. If management delivers on those contracts, future cash flows could justify a much higher stock price. Many analysts see the year-end 2026 price potentially well above current levels, arguing that the market is underappreciating the value of its secured revenues ^[75] ^[76]. (For example, the Fluidstack deals alone could generate $6.7–$16 billion over their terms ^[77].) On the other hand, skeptics point out the need for continued capital raises and the challenges of scaling. In our view, TeraWulf’s short-term outlook remains bullish, but investors should watch for technical pullbacks and fundamental execution.

Sources: Company financial releases ^[78] ^[79]; Bloomberg/CoinDesk news ^[80]; investor presentations and filings ^[81] ^[82]; analyst reports ^[83] ^[84]; and market commentary (Stocktwits, TS2.tech) ^[85] ^[86]. All data current as of Oct 9, 2025.

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References

BULLISH BREAKOUT: Google’s $3B Backstop Rockets TeraWulf (WULF) Stock to Multi-Year High

Recent Developments

Technical Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

Analyst Forecasts & Outlook

References

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