Canada Stock Market Today, December 4, 2025: TSX Holds Near Record High as Bank Earnings, Commodities and 2026 Optimism Drive Sentiment

Canada’s stock market heads into Thursday’s session with the S&P/TSX Composite sitting just below record territory after a powerful run driven by bank earnings, firmer commodity prices and growing conviction that Canadian equities can keep outperforming in 2026.

Key Takeaways for December 4, 2025

TSX near record levels: The S&P/TSX Composite closed Wednesday at 31,160.54, up 111.26 points (+0.36%), leaving the index less than 1% below late‑November record highs around 31,380–31,400. ^[1]
Banks and energy in the driver’s seat: Wednesday’s gain was powered by energy, railways and big banks as oil hovered around US$59 and Canada’s major lenders continued to beat fourth‑quarter profit expectations. ^[2]
Huge year for Canadian equities: Including dividends, the TSX’s main benchmark is up roughly 25–30% year‑to‑date, on track for its strongest annual advance since 2009 and well ahead of U.S. peers. ^[3]
Strategists see more upside in 2026: Bloomberg, CIBC Asset Management, Desjardins and a recent Reuters poll all point to Canadian stocks potentially outperforming the S&P 500 again in 2026, helped by cheaper valuations, higher dividend yields and exposure to gold and base metals. ^[4]
Today’s focus: Fresh CIBC results and dividend hike, ongoing digestion of RBC, Scotiabank and National Bank earnings, plus anticipation of Canada’s November jobs data and the next Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve moves. ^[5]

TSX Today: Where Canada’s Stock Market Stands on December 4

Because North American equity markets haven’t yet opened for Thursday’s trade, the latest official snapshot for the S&P/TSX Composite comes from Wednesday’s close:

Last close: 31,160.54
Change: +111.26 points (+0.36%) from Tuesday’s 31,049.28 ^[6]
Day range (Wed): 31,063.04 – 31,210.74 ^[7]
52‑week range: 22,227.74 – 31,411.01 ^[8]

The move extended a powerful late‑year run. Data from TMX, YCharts and closed‑end fund Canadian General Investments show:

The S&P/TSX Composite’s total‑return gain for 2025 is roughly 30% as of November 30. ^[9]
Over the last 12 months, the benchmark is ahead by roughly 25%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s gains in 2025. ^[10]

A Reuters piece on Wednesday described the session as a rebound after two days of mild losses, with the index supported by stronger oil prices and ongoing strength in the banks. ^[11]

In global context, Wednesday’s close saw:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,882.90 (+0.86%)
S&P 500: 6,849.72 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq Composite: 23,454.09 (+0.17%) ^[12]

That backdrop helps explain why Canadian futures and sentiment heading into Thursday remain constructive: global equities are still riding a wave of optimism that U.S. rate cuts are coming in 2026, even as data show a gradually cooling economy. ^[13]

Banks Lead the Charge: Earnings Season Keeps TSX Near Records

Financials make up a large slice of the TSX, and the current leg of the rally is very much a big‑bank story.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC): Record Year and Higher Dividend

On Wednesday, Royal Bank of Canada reported record annual net income of about C$20.4 billion for fiscal 2025, up roughly 25% year‑on‑year, with diluted EPS rising at a similar pace. ^[14]

Key points from RBC’s results and commentary:

Q4 2025 net income was about C$5.4 billion, with adjusted earnings up roughly 25% versus last year. ^[15]
Growth was driven by capital markets and wealth management, both benefiting from elevated trading activity, M&A and rising client assets. ^[16]
RBC raised its quarterly dividend by C$0.10 – a roughly 6% increase – and lifted its medium‑term return‑on‑equity target to above 17%, signalling confidence that elevated profitability can be sustained. ^[17]

Reuters noted that RBC shares hit a record high after the report, gaining just over 1% on the day and helping the index’s financials sub‑index eke out a modest gain. ^[18]

Scotiabank: Beating Expectations Despite Restructuring

Earlier in the week, Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) delivered adjusted Q4 profit of about C$2.56 billion (C$1.93 per share), ahead of analyst expectations, powered by a near 50% surge in profit from global banking and markets and robust wealth‑management fees. ^[19]

The bank also booked a C$373 million restructuring charge tied to layoffs in Canada and Asia and raised loan‑loss provisions to around C$1.11 billion. ^[20]

That mix of strong earnings and prudent de‑risking is typical of this reporting season: banks are monetizing capital‑markets strength while acknowledging lingering concerns about credit quality and the housing market.

National Bank of Canada: Leaning on Fees and Markets

National Bank of Canada likewise topped expectations, with adjusted profit rising to about C$1.16 billion, or C$2.82 per share, from C$928 million a year earlier. ^[21]

Highlights from Reuters’ summary: ^[22]

Capital markets profit jumped ~41% to C$432 million.
Wealth‑management revenues rose 18% to C$258 million.
The bank offset sluggish loan growth – weighed down by trade uncertainties and mortgage‑renewal worries – by leaning into fee‑based businesses.

CIBC: Fresh Results and Another Dividend Hike Today

This morning (Dec. 4), CIBC joined the party, reporting Q4 2025 revenue of C$7.58 billion, up 14% year‑on‑year, and net income of about C$2.18 billion, a 16% increase. Adjusted EPS climbed to C$2.21, also about 16% higher than a year ago. ^[23]

Key points from CIBC’s release:

Pre‑provision, pre‑tax earnings grew about 20% in the quarter. ^[24]
Capital markets net income for the year was up around 40%, reflecting the same themes seen at RBC and Scotiabank. ^[25]
The bank boosted its common‑share dividend to C$1.07, up C$0.10 from last quarter – a more than 10% increase. ^[26]

Taken together, the Big‑Six reporting so far confirm what a Reuters preview piece suggested on Dec. 1: Canadian banks are delivering strong fourth‑quarter earnings on the back of capital markets and wealth management, but lofty valuations and worries about household credit remain key watchpoints. ^[27]

For the TSX, the message is straightforward: as long as bank earnings and dividends keep trending higher, the index has a sturdy backbone.

Commodities, AI and the “New” Canadian Outperformance Story

Wednesday’s rebound wasn’t just about banks. Canada’s commodity tilt – long seen as a drag when tech stocks were powering global indices – is turning into an advantage again.

In Wednesday’s session:

The energy sector rose about 2% as crude oil settled near US$58.95 per barrel. ^[28]
Industrials gained roughly 1.2%, helped by railways.
Technology shares were up around 0.7%, far from the speculative extremes seen in U.S. mega‑cap tech. ^[29]

Devin Cattelan of Verecan Capital told Reuters that the TSX’s lower exposure to expensive AI‑driven tech giants and higher exposure to metal miners has become a feature, not a bug. As global infrastructure and data‑centre construction pick up, demand for copper and other base metals is rising, boosting Canadian miners and resource names. ^[30]

CIBC Asset Management has been making a similar case. In a recent Advisor.ca podcast and article, portfolio manager Craig Jerusalim highlighted four pillars behind Canadian equities’ strong run in 2025: ^[31]

Greater sector diversification than U.S. indices.
Comparable earnings growth.
Higher dividend yields.
Cheaper valuations relative to the S&P 500.

Jerusalim believes those same factors, combined with a boom in gold and materials, can keep the TSX ahead of the S&P 500 in 2026. ^[32]

Desjardins recently echoed that view, forecasting that the TSX will continue to outperform the S&P 500 in both 2025 and 2026, and stressing that gains are more broadly distributed in Canada than in the U.S., where a handful of megacap tech stocks dominate. ^[33]

2026 Outlook: Strategists Are Getting Louder

Thursday’s pre‑market narrative is increasingly about what happens next year, not just this week’s earnings.

Bloomberg: Canadian Stocks Seen Outperforming U.S. in 2026

A new Bloomberg report on Dec. 4 says Canadian stocks are now expected to outperform U.S. equities in 2026, noting that: ^[34]

With about four weeks left in the year, the S&P/TSX Composite has gained roughly 26% in 2025, on pace for its best annual performance since 2009.
Canadian equities still trade at a discount to U.S. peers despite that rally.
The combination of commodity exposure, resilient bank profits and more balanced sector weights could set up another year of outperformance.

Reuters Poll: Modest Index Gains, AI and Trade as Catalysts

An analysis of a recent Reuters poll, summarized by InsiderMonkey, found that strategists expect the S&P/TSX Composite to rise about 5% to around 32,125 by the end of 2026, implying fresh record highs but at a slower pace than 2025’s surge. ^[35]

That poll pointed to:

Loosening trade tensions
Government support for housing and productivity
Increased AI‑related investment

as key drivers that could keep Canada’s equity market supported, even if global growth cools. ^[36]

Valuations vs. U.S. Equities

Multiple Canadian‑focused strategists and asset managers have emphasized that:

Canadian stocks, on average, still trade at a double‑digit valuation discount to U.S. counterparts. ^[37]
The TSX offers a higher dividend yield, especially through sectors like financials, pipelines, utilities and covered‑call ETFs. ^[38]

That combination – strong 2025 performance but still‑reasonable valuations – is fueling the idea that the TSX’s run may not be over yet.

Dividend and Fund News on the Radar Today

Beyond the big banks, several dividend and fund developments add texture to today’s Canada stock market picture.

CIBC’s Bigger Payout

As noted, CIBC’s board raised its common‑share dividend to C$1.07 for the quarter ending January 31, 2026, up from C$0.97. The payout will be made on January 28, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 29, 2025. ^[39]

Combined with RBC’s own dividend hike and Scotiabank’s recently announced common‑share dividend payable in late January, the income profile of the Canadian banking sector continues to improve, a key attraction for domestic and global yield‑seeking investors. ^[40]

ETF Distributions Landing Today

Income investors are also watching a wave of ETF and fund distributions with Dec. 4 pay dates:

The iShares S&P/TSX Composite High Dividend Index ETF (XEI) is paying a C$0.11 distribution, implying a forward yield of about 4.3% as of today and an average dividend‑growth rate above 13% over the past three years. ^[41]
TD Active Preferred Share ETF (TPRF) lists December 4 as the payment date for its most recent distribution, reinforcing the broader theme of solid yields in Canadian preferred‑share strategies. ^[42]

These flows help explain persistent demand for dividend and income‑oriented TSX products, even after a strong price run.

Canadian General Investments: Strong NAV, TSX Even Stronger

A new GlobeNewswire update from Canadian General Investments (CGI), published early Dec. 4, reports that as of November 30: ^[43]

CGI’s NAV per share was C$80.73, with year‑to‑date total‑return NAV performance of 18.2%.
Over the same period, the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite total‑return index gained 30.0% year‑to‑date and 25.7% over 12 months, underscoring just how powerful the 2025 rally has been.

CGI’s portfolio is tilted towards information technology (25.3%), industrials (18.2%), materials (15.1%), financials (13.7%) and energy (13.1%), reflecting the sectors that have driven much of the TSX’s strength this year. ^[44]

Preferred Shares and Split Corps

Another GlobeNewswire item, re‑published today, notes that Brompton Split Banc Corp. (TSX:SBC) has successfully completed a preferred‑share offering, highlighting continued appetite for leveraged, bank‑stock‑linked income vehicles on the TSX. ^[45]

What Investors Are Watching Next

Even with the TSX near record levels, several looming catalysts could shape Canada’s stock market through the rest of December and into early 2026:

Canada’s November jobs report – due Friday – will give clues about the domestic labour market and how quickly higher rates are cooling the economy. Consensus expectations currently point to a modest decline in employment. ^[46]
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates steady in the near term, but markets will scrutinize any hints about when easing might begin in 2026. ^[47]
The U.S. Federal Reserve remains central: futures pricing still leans toward rate cuts in 2026 after a year of sticky inflation and mixed growth data. A misstep here would ripple through the TSX via banks, exporters and commodity producers. ^[48]
Remaining bank earnings (BMO, TD) and any updated guidance for 2026 will be crucial for judging whether profit growth can keep pace with elevated share prices. ^[49]

For now, though, the takeaway on December 4, 2025 is clear:

Canada’s stock market is entering the final weeks of the year within a whisker of record highs, powered by banks, commodities and a growing chorus of strategists arguing that Canadian equities may remain one of the world’s more attractive developed‑market plays in 2026.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.