Canada Stock Market Today, November 18, 2025: TSX Braces for Cautious Open as Inflation Cools and Global AI Selloff Deepens

TORONTO — Canada’s stock market heads into Tuesday’s session on the defensive, with investors digesting cooler inflation data, a softer loonie and a sharp global tech selloff that has rattled confidence in the AI trade.

Below is your before-the-bell playbook for the S&P/TSX Composite and broader Canadian markets on Tuesday, November 18, 2025.

Where the TSX Stands After Monday’s Slide

Canada’s main index starts the day from a weak position:

The S&P/TSX Composite fell about 0.8% on Monday to finish near 30,076, its lowest close in roughly 10 days.
Technology stocks dropped just over 2%, led by names like Lightspeed Commerce, as investors questioned how sustainable AI-related spending really is.
Materials, including gold miners, lost around 1.4% as bullion prices retreated.
Only a minority of sectors finished higher, with consumer staples eking out modest gains. ^[1]

Options markets also flashed more stress: the S&P/TSX 60 VIX volatility gauge climbed to roughly a six‑month high near 19, signaling growing demand for downside protection as stocks sold off. ^[2]

With the index now only a short step above the psychological 30,000 mark, traders will watch closely whether that level holds on any further weakness.

Inflation Is Cooling – But Not Enough to Declare Victory

The biggest macro story for Bay Street this week is still inflation.

Fresh data released on Monday showed:

Headline CPI (YoY) slowed to 2.2% in October, from 2.4% in September, as gasoline prices fell and food inflation eased.
On a month‑over‑month basis, CPI rose 0.2%, in line with expectations. ^[3]
Core measures watched by the Bank of Canada — such as CPI‑median (~2.9%) and CPI‑trim (~3.0%) — remain stuck around 3%, still above the 2% target band. ^[4]

Economists note that while headline inflation is moving in the right direction, underlying price pressures are easing only gradually. RBC Economics, for example, describes inflation as “moderating” but stresses that core readings are still too high for policymakers to relax. ^[5]

The Bank of Canada, which cut its policy rate to 2.25% on October 29 after a run of weaker growth and rising trade uncertainty, has since signalled a pause in its easing cycle. ^[6]
Monday’s CPI print largely reinforces expectations that the bank will hold rates steady at its December meeting, while keeping the door open to further cuts in 2026 if the slowdown deepens.

Loonie and Commodities: Double-Edged Sword for Canadian Equities

Canadian dollar under pressure

The Canadian dollar is another important piece of today’s backdrop:

On Monday, the loonie slipped to around C$1.40 per U.S. dollar (about 71 U.S. cents), marking its weakest level in roughly 10 days. ^[7]
The move reflected a combination of softer Canadian inflation, a stronger U.S. dollar and slightly lower oil prices.

A weaker currency can be a tailwind for exporters and Canadian companies earning U.S. dollars, but it also:

Raises import costs for consumers and businesses.
Signals that global investors are becoming more cautious on Canada relative to the U.S.

Oil and gold soften

Commodity prices — central to the TSX — are offering muted support:

Gold futures fell roughly 1%–1.5% on Monday as traders dialed back expectations for near‑term Fed rate cuts and sought safety in the U.S. dollar.
WTI crude for January delivery dipped to just under US$60 a barrel, while Brent slid to the mid‑US$60s. ^[8]

For the TSX, this mix usually means:

Headwinds for gold miners and parts of the broader materials complex.
A more nuanced picture for energy stocks: oil’s pullback is modest, but risk‑off sentiment may override fundamentals in the short term.

Global Backdrop: AI Euphoria Faces a Reality Check

Overnight action sets a distinctly risk‑off tone heading into the Toronto open:

Asian markets fell sharply on Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei down around 3% and South Korea’s KOSPI off more than 3%, as investors reassessed lofty tech valuations ahead of Nvidia’s much‑anticipated earnings. ^[9]
A broad regional equity index dropped close to 2%, while AI‑linked baskets in Japan extended a double‑digit decline from recent highs. ^[10]
European stocks followed Asia lower early Tuesday, with tech underperforming and broad indices down around 1% as traders questioned whether the AI trade has run too far, too fast. ^[11]

U.S. risk sentiment isn’t helping:

U.S. equity futures are in the red again after Monday’s selloff, with S&P 500 futures down roughly 0.3–0.5% in early trade as investors brace for a data-heavy week and Nvidia’s earnings later on. ^[12]
Bitcoin slid below US$90,000 for the first time in nearly seven months, another sign of fading appetite for high‑beta risk assets. ^[13]

For Canadian investors, the message is straightforward: global risk appetite is fragile, particularly toward richly valued technology and AI‑linked names. That backdrop matters given the TSX’s increasing exposure to tech and the close correlation with U.S. markets.

Today’s Economic Calendar: Housing Starts in Focus

On the domestic front, Tuesday’s Canadian data calendar is relatively light but not empty:

At 8:15 a.m. ET, October housing starts (month‑over‑month) are due. Markets will watch for signs that lower borrowing costs — following the BoC’s rate cuts earlier this year — are starting to stabilize residential construction. ^[14]

From the U.S., a string of releases — including factory orders, industrial production and price data — will hit later in the day and could sway global risk sentiment and the U.S. dollar. ^[15]

For the TSX, any indication of slowing global growth or renewed rate‑cut hopes could quickly filter into:

Bond yields and the yield curve.
Financials and rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities.
Cyclical groups such as industrials and materials.

Stocks and Sectors to Watch on the TSX and TSX Venture

While the macro backdrop steals the headlines, several company‑specific catalysts could move individual Canadian names at or shortly after the open.

1. Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE) – New Share Buyback Program

Valeura Energy announced it has received TSX approval for a new Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) running from November 20, 2025 to November 19, 2026, allowing the company to repurchase a meaningful portion of its outstanding shares in the open market. ^[16]

Key takeaways:

Buybacks generally signal management confidence and can be supportive for the share price, especially in volatile markets.
The program replaces or extends prior repurchases and gives Valeura flexibility to return capital while managing its capital structure.

Energy traders will be watching pre‑market sentiment in oil and in peer names to gauge how much of a bump the buyback news can provide.

2. Outcrop Silver & Gold – Graduates to the TSX

Outcrop Silver & Gold Corporation begins trading today on the Toronto Stock Exchange, moving up from the TSX Venture Exchange while retaining its “OCG” ticker. The company received final approval for the uplisting, with trading on the TSX effective at the open on Tuesday, November 18. ^[17]

Why it matters:

A TSX listing typically brings greater liquidity, index inclusion potential in the future and broader institutional visibility.
The move underscores ongoing investor interest in precious and base metals explorers, even as gold prices dip in the short term.

3. Southern Energy Corp. (TSXV: SOU) – Q3 2025 Results

Southern Energy Corp. released its third‑quarter 2025 financial and operating results early Tuesday. The company, which focuses on natural gas‑weighted assets in the southeastern U.S., highlighted production and capital spending trends heading into year‑end. ^[18]

Investors will look for:

Updated guidance on production volumes and cash flow.
Management commentary on gas price sensitivity and drilling plans for 2026.

4. Mining and Junior Resource Names

Several junior mining and exploration stocks on the TSX Venture could see action on fresh drill and corporate updates:

District Metals (TSXV: DMX) reported new high‑priority exploration targets from an airborne survey at its Tasjö alum shale property in Sweden. ^[19]
Thor Explorations (TSXV: THX) published Q3 2025 financial and operating results for its gold operations in Nigeria and exploration projects in West Africa. ^[20]
Sienna Resources (TSXV: SIEN) closed the final tranche of a private placement, raising fresh capital to fund multiple work programs. ^[21]

These names are thinly traded but can see outsized percentage moves on news days, especially when broader risk appetite for mining and juniors picks up.

5. Ynvisible Interactive (TSXV: YNV) – Commercial Momentum Update

Ynvisible Interactive, a small‑cap provider of printed e‑paper display technology, issued an update highlighting growing commercial traction and market engagements for 2025/2026, with expanding adoption across several industries. ^[22]

In today’s environment, where investors are re‑rating high‑growth tech names, any evidence of real revenue traction and commercial deals tends to be scrutinized closely.

6. K9 Gold → Americore Resources (TSXV: AMCO) – Name and Symbol Change

Effective at the open on November 18, K9 Gold Corp. is now trading under its new name, Americore Resources Corp., with the ticker “AMCO” on the TSX Venture Exchange. ^[23]

Name and branding changes don’t change fundamentals, but they:

Can influence discoverability and investor perception.
Are often timed to coincide with strategic shifts in focus or asset mix.

How the Pieces Fit Together for Today’s TSX Session

Putting it all together, here’s the pre‑market narrative:

Starting point: The TSX is coming off a 10‑day low, with tech and materials under pressure and volatility rising. ^[24]
Macro tone: Inflation is drifting closer to target, but core measures and central bank messaging suggest no imminent rate cut acceleration — more of a “wait‑and‑see” stance. ^[25]
Global risk: Asian and European markets are sliding as investors question AI valuations and reassess the global growth outlook; U.S. futures are pointing lower again. ^[26]
FX & commodities: A weaker loonie plus softer oil and gold create mixed signals for Canada’s resource‑heavy index. ^[27]
Micro catalysts: A cluster of energy and mining company announcements — from Valeura’s buyback to Outcrop’s TSX graduation — will drive stock‑specific moves, especially in small and mid‑caps. ^[28]

Bottom line for traders and investors:

Expect a cautious, potentially choppy open for the TSX today, with global tech sentiment and U.S. futures calling the tune.
Watch 30,000 on the Composite as a key psychological line in the sand.
Keep an eye on housing starts at 8:15 a.m. ET and incoming U.S. data for any fresh macro surprises.
In single names, buybacks, TSX uplistings and fresh drill results may offer relative bright spots in an otherwise risk‑averse tape.