Canada’s main stock market extended its record-breaking run on Thursday, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index closing at an all‑time high as surging mining and gold names more than offset a selloff in technology and ongoing weakness in energy shares.
The session played out against a backdrop of a steady Bank of Canada, a fresh U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, volatile commodity prices and a Canadian dollar that held firm after the central bank signalled the end of its long cutting cycle. [1]
TSX after the bell: market snapshot
By the 4:00 p.m. ET close in Toronto on Thursday, December 11, 2025:
- S&P/TSX Composite Index: 31,660.73, up 169.88 points (+0.54%), a new record closing high.
- Intraday range: High of 31,725.10, low of 31,410.44; opening level 31,470.23.
- Volume: About 263 million shares changed hands on the benchmark. [2]
Over the past 12 months, the TSX has gained roughly 25%, making Canadian equities one of the stronger performers among major developed markets this year. [3]
Broader Canadian benchmarks also moved higher:
- The large‑cap S&P/TSX 60 index rose by roughly 0.5%,
- While the small‑cap TSX Venture index slipped modestly, reflecting more muted risk appetite for speculative names despite the record high in the main gauge. [4]
Miners and metals drive a new record high
Mining and precious‑metals stocks were the clear winners on Bay Street today.
By late morning, strength in base‑metals names had already pushed the TSX up more than 100 points, with the index quoted around 31,595.48 as investors piled into resource shares. [5]
Through the session:
- Gold and mining sub‑indices climbed around 2%, helped by record highs in silver and copper prices, according to intraday data cited by Reuters and investor research outlet Finimize. [6]
- Gold futures traded near US$4,300 an ounce, while silver and copper extended their record‑setting trends, reinforcing the bid for Canadian miners and diversified resource producers. [7]
Finimize described the move as a metals‑led rally that helped Toronto’s benchmark notch “another record” even as tech and energy struggled to keep up—an assessment broadly echoed by trading desks across the Street. [8]
For investors, the message was straightforward: Canada’s resource tilt is working in its favour in a market environment where hard assets and commodity plays are back in vogue.
Tech stocks slump on AI bubble worries
If miners were the heroes of the day, technology stocks were the villains.
The S&P/TSX information technology index fell roughly 2%, dragged down by renewed concerns that AI‑linked names have run too far, too fast. The trigger came from south of the border, where Oracle’s weaker‑than‑expected forecast and rising capital spending stoked fresh chatter about an AI‑driven valuation bubble. [9]
Key Canadian tech movers included:
- Celestica (CLS.TO) – the electronics manufacturer and widely watched AI hardware beneficiary – slid about 3.8%.
- Shopify (SHOP.TO) retreated approximately 2.3%, giving back part of its recent strong run.
- BlackBerry (BB.TO) dipped about 0.7%. [10]
The TSX actually opened lower, down about 0.26% in early trade at 31,410.44, as tech jitters rippled through global markets before a powerful push from miners turned the tide later in the session. [11]
For investors trying to time the sector, the price action underscored a familiar theme in late 2025: AI remains a long‑term growth story, but short‑term sentiment can swing violently with every earnings miss or cautious forecast. [12]
Dollarama shines as value retail stays in favour
One of the most talked‑about single‑stock stories on the TSX today was Dollarama (DOL.TO).
Before the opening bell, the discount retailer:
- Beat expectations with third‑quarter net sales of about C$1.91 billion, ahead of consensus estimates around C$1.87 billion.
- Reported earnings of roughly C$1.17 per share, above analyst forecasts.
- Raised its fiscal 2026 comparable‑sales growth outlook to roughly 4.2%–4.7%, up from prior guidance of 3%–4%. [13]
The stock responded with a gain of about 2.3%, helping lift the consumer discretionary sector by roughly 0.6% on the day. [14]
Strategists have been leaning into this theme for months. A recent RBC note tagged Dollarama and grocery giant Loblaw as among its top Canadian consumer ideas for 2026, arguing that households will remain laser‑focused on value and predictable growth. [15]
Today’s earnings reinforce that narrative: value retailers continue to gain share as higher prices nudge shoppers toward lower‑cost everyday essentials.
Energy under pressure despite bullish oil sands outlooks
The energy sector finished lower even as some of Canada’s largest producers laid out ambitious, growth‑oriented plans for 2026.
Intraday, the TSX energy index fell around 1%, pressured by softer crude prices:
- WTI crude slipped to the US$57–58 per barrel area, roughly 1% lower on the day as traders digested geopolitical headlines and fresh forecasts from the International Energy Agency. [16]
At the company level, however, the news flow skewed positive:
- Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)
- Set a 2026 capital budget of up to C$5.3 billion,
- Forecast upstream production of 945,000–985,000 boe/d, about 4% higher than 2025 on an adjusted basis,
- Highlighted growth from its oil sands portfolio, including Foster Creek, West White Rose, and newly acquired Christina Lake North assets. [17]
- Suncor Energy (SU.TO)
- Guided to higher 2026 oil and gas output of 840,000–870,000 bpd, up from a 2025 forecast of 810,000–840,000 bpd,
- Announced lower capital spending of C$5.6–C$5.8 billion next year versus C$6.1–C$6.3 billion in 2025,
- Reaffirmed a focus on aggressive share buybacks and shareholder returns. [18]
The disconnect between weaker share prices and stronger multi‑year production plans highlights a key tension: investors remain wary of short‑term commodity volatility even as the long‑term cash‑flow story for Canada’s oil sands names improves.
Macro backdrop: Bank of Canada holds as Fed cuts again
Today’s moves came on the heels of back‑to‑back central bank decisions that are reshaping expectations for 2026:
- On December 10, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%, ending a streak of nine consecutive cuts totalling 275 basis points since mid‑2024. Policymakers said the current rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation near 2% while the economy adjusts to global trade frictions. [19]
- The bank noted Q3 GDP growth of 2.6%, a job market that has shown “solid gains” in recent months and headline inflation of 2.2%, with core measures still in the 2.5%–3% range—evidence that underlying price pressures remain sticky. [20]
On the currency side, the Canadian dollar was broadly steady:
- USD/CAD hovered near 1.38, with the loonie benefiting from the BoC’s neutral‑to‑slightly‑hawkish pause and expectations that further easing is unlikely in the near term. [21]
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered its third 25‑basis‑point rate cut of this cycle, reinforcing a diverging policy path: the Fed is still easing, while Canadian officials are signalling a prolonged hold and possible hikes later on if inflation doesn’t cool further. [22]
Scotiabank economists now expect:
- The BoC to keep rates at 2.25% through much of 2026,
- Followed by roughly 50 basis points of tightening in the second half of 2026,
- With the Canada–U.S. short‑term yield spread narrowing as U.S. cuts and a steady BoC support a firmer Canadian dollar. [23]
That backdrop helps explain today’s sector rotations: rate‑sensitive financials and value retail have remained bid, while long‑duration growth stories in tech look more vulnerable to any wobble in earnings or sentiment.
Canadian stock market forecasts and 2026 outlook
With just a few weeks left in the year, strategists are starting to tally up 2025 and look ahead to 2026:
- Performance in 2025
- The S&P/TSX Composite is on track to deliver one of the stronger returns among developed‑market equity benchmarks, thanks largely to its heavy exposure to commodities and financials. [24]
- Canadian equities have outpaced U.S. stocks in recent months, with some wealth‑management research citing roughly 3.9% local‑currency gains vs. 0.3% in U.S. dollar terms for a recent period. [25]
- Rates and macro
- Scotiabank’s 2026‑27 Canadian rates outlook argues that the BoC is likely on an extended hold, with the next move “likely a hike,” and pegs the 10‑year Government of Canada yield near an equilibrium around 3.75% in the coming years. [26]
- That mix—steady policy for now, but a bias to tighten later—supports the view that Canada won’t be chasing ultra‑low rates again anytime soon, a backdrop generally favourable to profitable, cash‑generative companies over speculative growth names.
- Sector and stock themes
- RBC and other strategists continue to highlight value retail (Dollarama, Loblaw) and quality dividend payers as core holdings for 2026, reflecting a consumer that remains highly price‑sensitive but still spending. [27]
- Commodity strategists point to tight supply in oil and structurally strong demand for copper and other energy‑transition metals, a combination that keeps miners and integrated energy firms firmly on institutional buy lists despite day‑to‑day volatility. [28]
Put simply, today’s record close fits neatly into the 2025–26 storyline emerging from Bay Street research:
Canada’s equity market is leaning into its strengths—resources, steady banks, and value‑oriented consumer names—while riding out periodic tech squalls tied to the global AI trade.
What investors should watch next
Looking beyond today’s close, Canadian equity investors will be focused on:
- Upcoming economic data that could challenge or confirm the BoC’s view that inflation is contained around 2% and growth is moderating but not collapsing.
- The next Bank of Canada rate announcement on January 28, 2026, flagged in yesterday’s press release, which will offer updated guidance on the policy path. [29]
- Further 2026 capital‑spending and production updates from major resource producers, after Cenovus and Suncor set an upbeat tone today. [30]
- Whether the tech selloff deepens or stabilizes as investors reassess how much AI growth is already priced into Canadian and U.S. valuations. [31]
For now, though, the headline is clear:
On December 11, 2025, the Canada stock market closed at a fresh record high, powered by mining stocks, resilient value retail and a central bank that has shifted from relentless cutting to a steadier, data‑dependent stance.
References
1. www.bankofcanada.ca, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. tradingeconomics.com, 5. www.barchart.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. finimize.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. finance.yahoo.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.bankofcanada.ca, 20. www.bankofcanada.ca, 21. www.exchangerates.org.uk, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.scotiabank.com, 24. us.rbcwealthmanagement.com, 25. enrichedthinking.scotiawealthmanagement.com, 26. www.scotiabank.com, 27. finance.yahoo.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.bankofcanada.ca, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com
