TORONTO — Canada’s stock market opened softer on Tuesday and stayed under pressure into mid-morning as investors digested a delayed batch of U.S. labour-market data, a sharp pullback in crude oil, and a fresh wave of big-ticket Canadian corporate headlines spanning energy, engineering services, and mining.
As of 10:34 a.m. ET (Dec. 16, 2025), the S&P/TSX Composite Index was at 31,370.69, down 0.36% on the day, after trading in a range of 31,299.60–31,480.64. [1]
The early dip comes against a backdrop of a standout year for Canadian equities: Canada’s benchmark is still up sharply year-to-date and has been pacing for its strongest annual run in more than a decade, even as markets navigate end-of-year volatility, shifting central-bank expectations, and headline-driven commodity swings. [2]
TSX today: a quick market snapshot (mid-morning)
Canada’s benchmark started the day in the red and remained choppy through the first hour of trading.
- At 9:31 a.m. ET, the TSX was down 0.3% at 31,399.073, with technology shares cited as leading losses in early trade. [3]
- By 10:19 a.m. ET, the index was quoted at 31,344.23 (down 0.44%) on a delayed feed, underlining the market’s early caution. [4]
- By 10:34 a.m. ET, the TSX had trimmed some losses but remained lower on the session. [5]
Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX 60—often seen as a tighter read on Canada’s large-cap leadership—was also lower in mid-morning quotes (down roughly four-tenths of a percent). [6]
Why Canadian stocks are softer: oil slumps, commodities wobble, and rate expectations reset
The TSX is famously commodity-heavy, and Tuesday’s tone was set early by a renewed slide in energy prices—alongside a broader reassessment of interest-rate paths after the U.S. jobs data hit the tape.
1) Oil drops below $60 (Brent), pressuring Canada’s energy-heavy index
Crude fell sharply on Tuesday as markets weighed optimism around potential Russia–Ukraine peace developmentsalongside signs of weaker demand momentum, including downbeat indicators out of China. [7]
In the morning, Reuters reported Brent down around $60 and WTI in the mid-$50s. [8] By mid-morning market data, crude was still sliding, with WTI around $55 and Brent under $59, reinforcing the headwind for Canadian energy producers and oil-linked services names. [9]
For the TSX, the oil move matters not just for energy earnings expectations, but also because oil often acts as a sentiment barometer for global growth—especially when weakness is tied to demand concerns.
2) The U.S. jobs report surprised the market—and it matters for Canada
Canada’s market is highly sensitive to U.S. macro prints, and Tuesday delivered a big one: U.S. employment data for October and November that had been delayed by a U.S. government shutdown. [10]
Key takeaways reported by Reuters:
- November nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 (beating expectations cited in that report). [11]
- October payrolls fell by 105,000. [12]
- The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. [13]
For TSX investors, the jobs print flows through in two ways:
- Rates and the Fed: Markets quickly translate U.S. labour data into expectations for U.S. interest rates, which influence North American equity valuations (especially rate-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate). Reuters noted that investors have been looking toward additional Fed easing in 2026 following multiple cuts in 2025. [14]
- Growth and commodity demand: Any signal that U.S. growth is cooling (or staying resilient) ripples into expectations for energy and metals demand, which can move TSX-heavy sectors.
3) Metals remain a swing factor for Canada—especially with gold in focus
Gold has been one of the defining stories of 2025 for global markets and a meaningful tailwind for Canadian miners. While day-to-day price moves are volatile, strategists are already looking ahead.
On Tuesday, Reuters reported Morgan Stanley expects gold to rise to $4,800/oz by Q4 2026, even as it anticipates slower gains next year compared with 2025. [15]
That kind of forecast matters disproportionately in Canada, where large gold and metals producers have an outsized influence on index-level performance and investor flows.
The biggest Canada stock market headlines driving attention today
Beyond macro and commodities, Tuesday’s Canadian tape is busy with major corporate developments—several of which could shape sector leadership into the close and “after the bell” positioning.
Anglo American and Teck win Canada’s approval for “Anglo Teck”
One of the most consequential Canadian corporate stories today is the federal green light for the merger of equals between Anglo American and Teck Resources, under the Investment Canada Act. [16]
According to the companies’ statements:
- The merged entity, Anglo Teck, has received Government of Canada approval. [17]
- The companies describe binding commitments, including at least C$4.5 billion to be spent in Canada within five years, enabling at least C$10 billion over 15 years. [18]
- The new company is expected to be headquartered in Vancouver, with a primary listing on the LSE and additional listings planned (including the TSX), subject to approvals. [19]
Canada’s decision is a major milestone for what has been one of 2025’s most closely watched global mining tie-ups, and it places a spotlight on Canada’s role in the critical minerals race—particularly copper. [20]
For TSX traders, the implications extend beyond Teck itself: the deal can influence materials-sector sentiment, copper-linked names, and the broader debate over how Canada handles strategic resource consolidation.
WSP Global’s $3.3B TRC deal adds momentum to infrastructure and power themes
In Canadian corporate deal news, WSP Global announced it will acquire TRC Companies in a $3.3 billion all-cash transaction, according to Reuters. [21]
Reuters reported the acquisition is aimed at strengthening WSP’s position in the U.S., including:
- Positioning WSP as the largest engineering and design firm in the U.S., and
- Expanding its power and energy exposure, with that segment contributing 34% of U.S. revenue post-deal (per WSP’s statement cited by Reuters). [22]
The deal also lands in a market narrative dominated by power demand—driven by data centers, AI workloads, and electrification—one of the structural themes investors continue to watch heading into 2026. [23]
Canadian Natural Resources posts 2026 budget and production targets
On the energy side, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) released its 2026 budget, laying out spending and production targets at a time when oil prices are sliding and investors are demanding capital discipline. [24]
Highlights from the company’s statement include:
- 2026 operating capital budget: approximately $6.3 billion [25]
- 2026 production guidance: 1,590–1,650 MBOE/d, with 74% liquids [26]
- The company targeted roughly 3% production growth at the midpoint versus forecast 2025 levels. [27]
This kind of guidance can matter into the close because it feeds directly into how investors value Canadian oil sands and integrated producers—especially in a tape where crude prices are moving fast.
Enghouse earnings: profitability vs. top-line pressure
Enghouse (ENGH) was also on investors’ radar after reporting and hosting a Tuesday morning call. The company’s own investor materials list Q4 2025 revenue of $124.5 million and Q4 net income of $21.1 million, alongside a declared dividend payable in February 2026. [28]
A detailed transcript summary published on Dec. 16 also emphasized Enghouse’s cash position and highlighted management’s focus on acquisitions and AI-related services, even as growth remains uneven across enterprise markets. [29]
Reuters’ broader Canada premarket wrap noted that Enghouse’s fourth-quarter revenue missed analyst expectations, keeping attention on how software and IT services names perform into year-end. [30]
Early TSX movers to watch before the close
While leadership can shift quickly, a mid-morning snapshot of notable TSX moves showed a mix of industrial, cannabis, apparel, utilities, gold, and energy names in focus.
Among the largest early gainers listed in a TSX component ranking were:
- NFI Group (+14.67%)
- Curaleaf (+8.91%)
- Gildan Activewear (+4.64%)
- Algonquin Power & Utilities (+2.56%)
- Seabridge Gold (+1.96%) [31]
Among the sharpest early declines were:
- Celestica (-3.89%)
- Vermilion Energy (-3.79%)
- Baytex Energy (-3.86%)
- Imperial Oil (-4.68%)
- Ivanhoe Mines (-4.89%) [32]
Energy names showing up on the downside list lines up with the day’s crude-driven pressure, while the presence of gold-related names on the upside underscores how investors continue to use precious-metals exposure as both a thematic allocation and a hedge.
What to watch “after the bell” today in Canada markets
With it still being mid-morning in Toronto, the next several hours—and the post-close narrative—are likely to hinge on a few key forces.
Commodity direction into the close: oil is the loudest signal today
If oil remains under pressure into the afternoon, investors will be watching whether:
- Energy weakness stays contained to smaller producers, or
- Selling broadens into Canada’s mega-cap energy leaders—particularly those now rolling out 2026 budgets and guidance. [33]
With crude down sharply intraday, commodity-sensitive flows may dominate late-session activity as portfolio managers rebalance into year-end.
Rate expectations are shifting—Fed and BoC narratives both matter
Even though the U.S. jobs report is the immediate catalyst, Canadian rate expectations remain part of the backdrop.
- The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on Dec. 10, 2025. [34]
- Canada’s most recent inflation snapshot showed headline CPI at 2.2% year-over-year in November, matching October, according to Statistics Canada. [35]
That mix—cooler inflation but still-sensitive growth—tends to keep investors focused on rate-sensitive TSX segments (financials, real estate, and long-duration growth stocks), especially into the final stretch of the trading year.
Deal implications and sector read-through
Two deal stories will keep shaping after-hours conversation even if intraday price moves settle:
- Anglo Teck approval: watch for read-through across miners, copper exposure, and Canadian policy debate on strategic assets. [36]
- WSP-TRC: watch for how investors price large, cash-funded M&A in a higher-rate world—and what it signals about power-grid and electrification capex cycles. [37]
Outlook: the 2026 themes increasingly shaping TSX positioning
Even on a down morning, the bigger story for Canada markets remains the transition from 2025’s rally to 2026’s playbook—especially as institutional investors publish outlooks and reposition.
Two themes stood out in market coverage today:
- AI remains central to 2026 strategies: Reuters reported that major brokerages expect AI to evolve from a trend to a “mainstay,” with forecasts still pointing to resilience in economic expansion—though with risks from inflation surprises, valuations, and trade tensions. [38]
- Gold’s path beyond 2025: With Canada’s market heavily exposed to miners, Morgan Stanley’s projection of gold reaching $4,800/oz by Q4 2026 is the type of forecast that can shape longer-term sector allocations (even if day-to-day moves are driven by profit-taking and headlines). [39]
For TSX investors, the constant balancing act remains the same: commodities and financials drive much of the index, but global growth, U.S. rates, and thematic capex cycles often determine whether rallies broaden—or narrow.
This market update reflects information available as of late morning ET on Dec. 16, 2025. Prices and percentage moves can change quickly during the trading day.
References
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