Canada’s stock market heads into Friday’s open with the S&P/TSX Composite coming off a fresh record close, while commodities (oil, gold, copper) remain the biggest swing factor for a TSX that’s still heavily driven by energy and materials. The other headline driver: global tech “AI payoff” jitters after Oracle’s slide, even as broader markets digest the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and a softer U.S. dollar. [1]
Below is what matters most before the Toronto Stock Exchange opens at 9:30 a.m. ET—and what could move Canadian stocks early.
Pre-market snapshot: the numbers setting the tone
TSX setup
- TSX Composite: ended Thursday at 31,660.73 (+0.54%), an unofficial record close. [2]
- S&P/TSX 60 futures (Dec): 1,857.50 (+2.80) in early trading—fractionally higher, suggesting a mildly positive bias into the open. [3]
U.S. futures (important for Canada’s open)
- S&P 500 E-mini (Dec): 6,899.75 (-7.50)
- Nasdaq 100 E-mini (Dec): 25,582.50 (-131.00)
- Dow mini (Dec): 48,869 (+123) [4]
Commodities (TSX’s daily heartbeat)
- Brent: $61.71/bbl (+0.70%); WTI: $58.03/bbl (+0.75%) (Friday session). [5]
- Gold: $4,286/oz (spot, near a seven-week high); Silver: $63.67/oz, near Thursday’s record $64.31. [6]
- Copper: pulled back after tagging a record; LME three‑month copper was $11,794.50/ton after touching $11,952earlier. [7]
FX watch
- The Canadian dollar has recently been supported by a surprise trade surplus and broader U.S. dollar softness, with Reuters noting the loonie around 1.3765 per USD and near its strongest level since mid‑September. [8]
1) Global markets: “rate-cut optimism” meets “AI payoff jitters”
The overnight global message is mixed but constructive:
- Asian equities rose, led by Japan where the Topix hit a record high, while Nasdaq futures stayed pressured as investors continued to reassess big-ticket AI spending after Oracle’s slump. [9]
- Reuters’ “Morning Bid” framing is that industrial metals are grabbing the spotlight (copper in particular) as China signals more fiscal support—one reason TSX materials traders are paying close attention this morning. [10]
For Canada, this matters in a very specific way: the TSX can rally even when U.S. tech is weak, as long as metals and/or oil cooperate—because the TSX’s index leadership often comes from banks, energy, and miners rather than megacap tech.
Also notable: the S&P 500 just logged a record close at 6,901 on Thursday, reflecting a rotation toward value/cyclicals like financials and materials—a style mix that tends to align well with Canada’s index composition. [11]
2) Commodities are back in control—and that’s a TSX story
Oil: modest bounce, but still a weekly tug-of-war
Oil was higher Friday, supported by concerns over potential Venezuelan supply disruptions after the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan tanker, even as markets weigh broader geopolitical and demand narratives. Brent traded around $61.71 and WTI around $58.03. [12]
Why TSX investors care: oil’s direction is still the fastest way to set the tone for Canada’s heavyweight energy complex at the open, especially names tied to oil sands and integrated refining.
Gold and silver: a powerful bid remains underneath
Gold was holding near a seven-week high with spot around $4,286/oz, while silver stayed near $63.67/oz, just below Thursday’s record $64.31. Reuters tied the move to expectations for additional Fed cuts, a softer U.S. dollar, and strong momentum in silver. [13]
What it means for Canadian stocks: strength in precious metals can support TSX-listed miners and royalty/streaming names and can lift the materials sector broadly—one reason TSX leadership has leaned toward materials in recent sessions.
Copper: the “China stimulus” trade is alive again
Copper is doing what it often does when China policy turns supportive: rally hard, then test demand elasticity. Reuters reported copper easing after hitting a record, with three‑month LME copper around $11,794.50/ton after touching $11,952. [14]
The same Reuters note included forward-looking calls:
- ING suggested supply disruptions may keep a floor near $11,000/ton, but stronger demand (especially from China) is key for a sustained leg higher.
- ANZ expects copper prices to remain above $11,000/ton in 2026 with potential to near $12,000 by year‑end amid supply constraints and demand growth. [15]
For the TSX, copper’s strength often ripples through miners, developers, and diversified materials producers—plus it can influence sentiment toward industrial cyclicals more broadly.
3) Canada data drop at 8:30 a.m. ET: the real pre-open catalyst
The biggest “domestic” swing factor today is Statistics Canada’s 8:30 a.m. Eastern release window, which is scheduled to include: [16]
- Wholesale trade (October 2025)
- Building permits (October 2025)
- Industrial capacity utilization (Q3 2025)
- New motor vehicle sales (October 2025)
- Provisional poverty estimates (2024) [17]
What markets will look for
Wholesale trade: Investors will be watching for confirmation of momentum (or cooling) in domestic demand. StatsCan’s earlier advance estimate suggested wholesale sales (excluding petroleum and a couple of categories) decreased 0.1%in October. [18]
Building permits: A housing-sensitive signal that can move rate expectations and housing-linked equities. The latest published reading (September) showed the total value of building permits rose 4.5% to $11.7 billion, with both residential and non-residential contributing—and StatsCan flagged that October data would be released on December 12. [19]
Capacity utilization: This can influence how investors think about slack vs. overheating in the economy. In Q2, Canadian industries operated at 79.3% of capacity (down from 79.9% in Q1), and StatsCan noted Q3 data would be released on December 12. [20]
Why it matters today: with the TSX at record highs, macro surprises can move the first hour—especially if the data shifts the path for rates, the loonie, and bond yields.
4) Rates and the loonie: Bank of Canada is steady, but markets still trade the next move
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% this week. [21]
At the same time, currency markets have reacted to shifting North American rate expectations and trade headlines. Reuters reported the loonie strengthened toward a near three‑month high after Canada posted a surprise C$153 million trade surplus (September), alongside broader U.S. dollar weakness after the Fed’s cut and guidance. [22]
How to think about it into the open:
- A stronger CAD can be a headwind for some exporters’ translated earnings, but it can also signal improving macro confidence.
- If today’s StatsCan releases come in stronger-than-expected, the market could reprice the “how long rates stay on hold” question—supporting the CAD but potentially pressuring rate-sensitive equities. [23]
5) Key Canadian corporate stories to watch this morning
Even without a packed earnings calendar, a few major Canadian headlines are still fresh and relevant for Friday’s open:
Dollarama: value retail still winning
Dollarama raised its annual comparable sales growth forecast to 4.2%–4.7% (from 3%–4%), citing strong demand for cheaper household items and groceries. It posted quarterly net sales of C$1.91 billion, topping expectations cited by Reuters. [24]
Market angle: it reinforces the “trade-down” consumer narrative—important for Canadian retail, grocery dynamics, and inflation-sensitive positioning.
Suncor: higher 2026 production outlook with lower capex
Suncor forecast 2026 upstream output of 840,000–870,000 bpd, up from its 2025 estimate range, while guiding capital spending down to C$5.6–C$5.8 billion (from C$6.1–C$6.3 billion in 2025). Reuters also highlighted the company’s shareholder-return posture, including higher buybacks. [25]
Market angle: in a TSX where energy remains a leadership sector, company-level guidance like this can shape sentiment around the broader Canadian oil sands group.
6) Sector playbook for the TSX open: what tends to lead first
If you’re trying to anticipate where the early TSX momentum might show up, the premarket setup suggests watching these buckets:
Materials: strong tailwinds, but watch copper and silver volatility
- Silver near record highs and copper near $12,000/ton are supportive for the complex, but both are extended and can swing quickly. [26]
Energy: oil is firmer, but headlines rule
- With Brent back above $61, energy could start stronger—yet macro/geopolitical headlines (Venezuela, Russia‑Ukraine) have been driving day-to-day price action. [27]
Financials: the quiet ballast
- Canada’s banks often benefit when markets rotate toward value/cyclicals and away from frothy growth—something Reuters noted in the U.S. as investors moved into financials and materials. [28]
Tech: the volatility pocket
- The Oracle-led AI spending debate is still shaking global tech sentiment, and that can spill into Canadian tech names even if Canada’s index is less tech-heavy than the S&P 500. [29]
7) Three “opening scenarios” to watch in the first 60 minutes
- Data beats + commodities hold up:
If 8:30 a.m. data is firm and metals/oil stay supported, the TSX could extend its momentum from Thursday’s record close. [30] - Data disappoints + loonie softens:
Weak readings could shift rate expectations and pressure cyclicals, while a softer CAD might cushion exporters. [31] - U.S. tech selloff accelerates:
Even if Canada’s commodities are firm, a sharper risk-off move in U.S. tech can dampen early sentiment across North America. [32]
Bottom line for Canada investors before the bell
The TSX is opening Friday with record-high momentum, but the day’s direction is likely to hinge on two levers:
- 8:30 a.m. ET Canadian data (wholesale trade, building permits, capacity utilization, and more). [33]
- Commodity strength, especially oil, precious metals, and copper, which remain the key macro inputs for Canada’s index leadership. [34]
As always, premarket setups can change quickly—particularly when the TSX is trading near highs and cross-border sentiment is being pulled between “rate-cut optimism” and “AI valuation reality checks.” [35]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.barchart.com, 4. www.barchart.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.tradingview.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 17. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 18. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 19. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 20. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 21. www.bankofcanada.ca, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 31. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www150.statcan.gc.ca, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com
