New York, January 29, 2026, 14:50 EST — Regular session
- Carnival shares rose, lifted by investor interest in cruise lines following Royal Caribbean’s upbeat 2026 demand forecast.
- Traders are using early “Wave” season booking data to gauge pricing power and spending trends on onboard amenities.
- Attention shifts to Carnival’s February dividend record date and the upcoming results update for a sharper view on costs.
Carnival Corporation & plc shares climbed 8.6% to $31.19 in afternoon trade Thursday, after hitting $31.20 earlier. The boost came amid a Royal Caribbean rally that lifted the entire sector. Royal Caribbean soared 17.1%, Norwegian Cruise Line added 10.0%, and Viking Holdings climbed 5.2%.
The shift comes right in the middle of “Wave” season — that crucial January-to-March window when cruise lines roll out promotions and investors hunt for clues on demand. Following years of elevated fares and pandemic-driven debt, the market now seeks proof that pricing will stay strong through 2026, not just that cabins are selling.
Royal Caribbean led the way, projecting 2026 profits above expectations and highlighting robust demand from wealthier travelers. The company revealed that roughly two-thirds of its 2026 capacity is booked at record-high prices. “WAVE is off to a great start, and we continue to see strong and growing preference,” CEO Jason Liberty said. (Reuters)
Carnival is pushing a similar narrative. In December, it brought back its dividend, setting a Feb. 13, 2026 record date for an initial 15-cent payout. CEO Josh Weinstein pointed to “strong booking volumes” from Black Friday through Cyber Monday. At the same time, Kim Noland of Gimme Credit highlighted “a winning combination of affordable packages to popular destinations” that’s held steady despite ongoing uncertainty. (Reuters)
Dividend talk shifts the tone but doesn’t eliminate the underlying operational risks. Cruise companies face steep fixed costs as soon as their ships set sail, leaving little margin for error if demand weakens or discounting makes a comeback.
Traders are zeroing in on the mix: ticket pricing, onboard spending, and cancellations. Even slight shifts in these factors can swing revenue per passenger day — the “yield” investors follow closely — and that usually hits earnings reports quickly.
Still, Royal Caribbean’s outlook isn’t all positive. Should Wave-season demand dip later this quarter, or fuel prices spike beyond forecasts, margins could tighten fast. The most leveraged companies usually feel the pinch first.
Carnival plans to pay its dividend on Feb. 27 to shareholders recorded by Feb. 13, MarketWatch reports. Investors are now eyeing the next big event: the earnings update expected around March 20, per Nasdaq’s calendar. The report will likely shed light on bookings, pricing, and cost trends. (MarketWatch)
