Key Takeaways
- Share price: Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE: CCL) is trading around $26 per share (about $25.99 as of December 10, 2025).
- Q4 catalyst: The company will release Q4 2025 results and host its earnings call on December 19, 2025, with management expected to update 2026 guidance. [1]
- Record profitability: Carnival reported record Q3 2025 net income of roughly $1.9 billion and raised full‑year guidance for the third time, now targeting nearly 55% year‑over‑year growth in adjusted net income. [2]
- Wall Street stance: Analysts generally rate the stock a “Moderate Buy” to “Strong Buy”, with 12‑month price targets clustering in the mid‑$30s, implying roughly 30–40% upside from current levels, depending on the source. [3]
- Risks: High leverage, cyclical demand, and macro uncertainty remain key issues even as returns and bookings improve.
Carnival Stock Today: Price, Valuation and Performance Snapshot
As of the close on December 10, 2025, Carnival Corporation & plc (ticker CCL on the NYSE) changes hands at about $25.99, up modestly on the day.
Recent filings show:
- Market cap: roughly $29–30 billion
- Trailing P/E: about 13.3×
- PEG ratio: around 0.5, indicating earnings growth expectations are high relative to the current price
- Debt‑to‑equity: ~2.1×, reflecting a still‑leveraged balance sheet after the pandemic-era borrowing spree
- 52‑week range: roughly $15.07–$32.80 per share. [4]
Year‑to‑date, CCL has delivered around a 4% total return as of December 10, lagging some of the market’s high‑fliers but extending its post‑pandemic recovery. [5]
The UK‑focused ADR CUK, which represents Carnival plc, trades close to $24.04 per share in the U.S. Separate coverage for Carnival PLC on the London Stock Exchange (CCL.L) shows analysts there also expect double‑digit percentage upside from current levels. [6]
What’s New on December 10, 2025? Fresh Headlines Around Carnival
1. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Announced
On December 10, 2025, Carnival announced that it will release Q4 2025 financial results on December 19, 2025 and hold a conference call at 10:00 a.m. EST / 3:00 p.m. GMT that same day. The call will be simulcast on the company’s investor relations websites. [7]
This Q4 event is important because:
- It should confirm full‑year 2025 numbers, including whether management meets or exceeds its already‑raised guidance.
- Investors will be watching for initial 2026 commentary on yields, capacity, and cost pressures.
- Given the stock’s volatility and high options activity, the call is likely to be a major trading catalyst—something even options‑focused outlets like TastyLive have flagged, listing Carnival among their “Top 6 Stocks to Watch: December 2025.” [8]
2. Brand News: Holland America’s Alaska Push
Also on December 10, Carnival’s Holland America Line brand announced a heavily marketed 2027 Alaska Cruisetour season, including:
- A $70 million upgrade to its Denali Lodge, with new guestroom buildings and a redesigned main lodge and restaurant.
- A free inclusive dining plan (worth up to about $829) for certain early‑booking guests.
- Expanded itineraries that combine Alaska cruises with land tours into Denali National Park and the Yukon. [9]
While this news is about 2027 itineraries, it feeds directly into the investment story: Alaska has been one of Carnival’s most lucrative, differentiated products, and investments there signal confidence in long‑term demand and pricing power.
3. New Institutional Filings: Mixed but Net Supportive
Two fresh institutional ownership headlines hit on December 10:
- Night Squared LP cut its holdings in Carnival by 34.2%, selling more than 66,000 shares and ending Q2 with about 128,700 shares (~$3.6 million at the time). [10]
- iSAM Funds UK Ltd disclosed a new position of around 46,500 shares, valued near $1.3 million, and several smaller firms also added to their stakes. [11]
Despite the trimming by Night Squared, roughly two‑thirds of Carnival’s shares (about 67%) are held by hedge funds and other institutions, according to these filings, signaling sustained professional interest in the name. [12]
4. Zacks: “Top Value Stock for the Long-Term”
A new Zacks Equity Research piece published December 10 describes Carnival as a “Top Value Stock for the Long-Term”, highlighting that: [13]
- Carnival holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
- It earns a VGM (Value–Growth–Momentum) Score of A and a Value Style Score of A.
- Its forward P/E is around 10.6×, which Zacks views as attractive versus growth prospects.
- The 2025 EPS consensus estimate has been revised upward to about $2.17 per share, and Carnival’s average earnings surprise has been enormous—over +160% historically, according to that note.
Taken together, today’s news flow paints Carnival as a profitable but still controversial recovery stock: earnings and bookings look strong, analysts are broadly positive, yet institutions are actively rebalancing positions ahead of a key quarter‑end report.
2025: Record Earnings and a Rebuilt Business Model
Carnival’s 2025 numbers are the backbone of the bullish thesis.
Q3 2025: Highest Net Income in Company History
In a late‑September release, Carnival reported all‑time high financial results: [14]
- Net income: about $1.9 billion
- Adjusted net income: approx. $2.0 billion
- Revenue: around $8.2 billion, another record quarter
- Net yields: up roughly 4.6–5.3% year‑over‑year in constant currency
- Customer deposits: a record $7.1 billion, with bookings for 2026 already matching 2025’s record level at higher prices.
An 8‑K filing shows Q3 operating income of about $2.27 billion, with improving cost structure, lower fuel expense per berth, and a liquidity position over $6.2 billion, including cash and available credit lines. Total debt has fallen to around $26.5 billion, down from roughly $27.5 billion at the end of 2024. [15]
Analysts and outlets like CoinCentral and Seatrade Cruise note that the company has: [16]
- Refinanced about $4.5 billion of debt,
- Reduced secured debt by nearly $2.5 billion,
- Brought net debt to adjusted EBITDA down to roughly 3.6×, from 4.7× a year earlier,
- Pushed return on invested capital (ROIC) to around 13%, its best level since before the financial crisis.
Despite these numbers, the stock actually dropped nearly 4% on the Q3 release day, a reminder that expectations were high and the market is sensitive to any hint of softer future yields or demand. [17]
Earlier in 2025: Q2 Beat and Guidance Upgrades
Back in June, Carnival beat fiscal Q2 profit and sales forecasts, delivering record second‑quarter revenue of around $6.33 billion and raising its full‑year outlook. [18] That strength, combined with Q3’s results, led the company to raise 2025 adjusted net income guidance three times, now forecasting: [19]
- Adjusted net income up nearly 55% vs. 2024
- Adjusted EBITDA near $7.05 billion, about 15% higher than 2024
For long‑term investors, 2025 looks like the year Carnival finally completed its post‑COVID financial reset, returning to pre‑crisis profitability metrics while still carrying a higher‑than‑historic debt load.
Wall Street’s Carnival Stock Forecast
U.S. Listings (CCL and CUK)
Different data providers compile slightly different analyst universes, but the message is broadly consistent:
- MarketBeat reports that 24 analysts covering CCL have a consensus 12‑month target around $33–34 per share, with a range from roughly $22 to $40. That implies around 30% upside from the current ~$26 price. The consensus rating is “Moderate Buy”, with most analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy and a smaller group at Hold. [20]
- TipRanks data shows a similar but slightly more bullish picture, with an average target in the mid‑$30s (about $36) and a range from roughly $29.44 up to $42, pointing to potential upside in the high‑30% range. [21]
- For Carnival plc ADR (CUK), StockAnalysis cites around 18 covering analysts with an average target of roughly $33.7 and a “Strong Buy” consensus rating, implying over 40% upside from the current ~$24 level. [22]
In short: most sell‑side analysts see Carnival as undervalued, but they disagree on just how much upside remains and how quickly leverage will fall.
London Listing (CCL.L)
On the London market, where Carnival is also traded, UK‑focused sites give a similarly upbeat view:
- Trading‑oriented platforms cite an analyst price target around 2,600p, with estimates spanning roughly 1,500p to 3,200p. [23]
- A December 10 analysis at DirectorsTalk notes 22 Buy ratings and no Sells, with an average target of roughly 2,325p, implying about 30% upside from the current share price. [24]
These international numbers matter because they show global investor appetite, not just U.S. sentiment, is leaning positive on Carnival’s medium‑term prospects.
Quant and Technical Models: Short‑Term Volatility Ahead?
In addition to human analysts, several algorithmic and technical models publish frequent forecasts for CCL.
- CoinCodex, which blends technical indicators like moving averages and sentiment gauges, currently expects Carnival’s share price to drift lower in the near term, with a model path toward roughly $23.9 by December 14, 2025, about 8% below current levels. Over the full year, however, it projects December 2025 prices averaging around $26.2—not far from where the stock trades now, implying a modest full‑year gain. [25]
- PandaForecast (another quantitative service) gives a short‑term target around $25.4 for December 14, 2025, suggesting a narrower trading range and “positive dynamics” with moderate volatility. [26]
These models disagree on the exact path but converge on one point: they expect continued volatility rather than a smooth trend. As always, such automated forecasts are based on price patterns and should be treated as probabilistic, not predictive guarantees.
What Recent Research is Saying About Carnival
Zacks, Value Scores and Profitability
Between its December 10 “Top Value Stock” article and earlier coverage, Zacks highlights a few themes: [27]
- Carnival has strong value characteristics (Value Score A) and a favorable overall VGM Score A.
- Earnings revisions have trended upward, with the 2025 consensus EPS drifting higher as the year progressed.
- Carnival’s ROIC around 13% is being framed as the start of a new profitability cycle, especially compared with the depressed returns of the pandemic years.
In other words, Zacks sees Carnival as a cyclical value play where the earnings recovery is outpacing the share price.
Other Commentary: Upside vs. Macro Risks
- A recent Seeking Alpha write‑up on Carnival (accessible in summary form) maintains a Buy rating and argues that “price upside is due” after a roughly 10% pullback, while acknowledging that softening demand in some pockets warrants caution. [28]
- Investopedia’s coverage of the June quarter focused on Carnival’s ability to beat Q2 expectations, raise guidance and exceed its 2026 financial targets 18 months early, underscoring operational leverage as ships sail full and costs normalize. [29]
- Options‑focused site TastyLive lists CCL among its top six stocks to watch for December 2025, citing its year‑to‑date gain, relatively high implied volatility, and strong options liquidity—essentially flagging Carnival as a prime name for earnings‑related options strategies, not just stock‑only investors. [30]
Taken together, recent research supports a constructive but nuanced view: Carnival is no longer a turnaround story in the pure “will it survive?” sense, but rather a leveraged cyclical where the debate has shifted to how long the current demand boom lasts and how fast debt can be retired.
Travel and Cruise Sector Backdrop
Carnival doesn’t operate in a vacuum. Recent news from travel peers helps frame the environment:
- TUI, Europe’s largest tour operator, reported strong 2025 results with cruises and hotels as stand‑out performers, but issued a more cautious 2026 outlook, guiding to only 2–4% revenue growth and 7–10% operating profit growth. [31]
- Zacks also highlights a 20% surge in bookings at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) for 2026 in one of its cruise‑industry notes, suggesting cruise demand remains robust, even if investors worry about how long the boom can run. [32]
For Carnival, this backdrop is a double‑edged sword:
- Strong sector demand supports pricing, occupancy and onboard spending across its brands (Carnival Cruise Line, Princess, Holland America, Cunard, Costa, AIDA, P&O, Seabourn). [33]
- But a slowing global economy, geopolitical risks, or travel fatigue could pressure yields, especially as the industry adds capacity.
Key Risks and Catalysts for CCL in 2026–2027
Major Catalysts
- Q4 2025 Earnings and 2026 Guidance (December 19, 2025)
- Confirmation of the 55%+ adjusted net income growth target. [34]
- Initial 2026 yield and capacity guidance, which will heavily influence analyst models.
- Any new comments on debt reduction milestones and potential credit rating upgrades.
- Booking Trends for 2026 and 2027
- Carnival has already reported that 2026 bookings are at least in line with record 2025 levels at higher prices—a very bullish data point if it persists. [35]
- Continued momentum in premium offerings like Holland America’s Denali Cruisetours and Seabourn’s luxury sailings can support higher margins. [36]
- Deleveraging Pace
- The company has made visible progress refinancing and paying down debt, but its absolute debt load (≈$26.5 billion) still dominates the bear case. [37]
Main Risks
- Leverage and Interest Costs: Even with improved net debt/EBITDA, interest expense remains significant. Any slowdown in demand or spike in rates would hit equity holders hard. [38]
- Macroeconomic Slowdown: Cruises are discretionary. A global downturn, higher unemployment, or persistent inflation could weigh on bookings and onboard spending.
- Fuel Prices and Regulatory Costs: Marine fuel and environmental regulations (emissions, ports, safety) can squeeze margins if not offset by pricing.
- Event Risk: The industry is sensitive to health scares, geopolitical events, or accidents, all of which can trigger sudden booking cancellations or reputational damage.
Is Carnival Stock a Buy Right Now?
From a non‑personal, informational standpoint, the current setup for Carnival stock looks like this:
- Bullish factors
- Record earnings and rising guidance in 2025. [39]
- Strong booking trends into 2026 and evidence of enduring demand for cruises. [40]
- Improving leverage metrics, with significant debt refinancing and lower net debt/EBITDA than a year ago. [41]
- Analyst consensus targets in the mid‑$30s with mostly Buy ratings. [42]
- Favorable value metrics (low double‑digit forward P/E, positive revision trends, strong Zacks value scores). [43]
- Bearish factors
- A still‑high absolute debt load, which magnifies downside in any downturn. [44]
- The stock has already rallied sharply off its post‑COVID lows, so easy “distressed recovery” gains are behind it. [45]
- Quant models and recent price action suggest short‑term volatility, not a straight line to analyst targets. [46]
For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors who believe the global cruise market will keep expanding and that Carnival can steadily deleverage, today’s setup resembles a leveraged value play with meaningful upside but real downside risk.
For more conservative or income‑oriented investors, the combination of cyclicality + leverage + volatility may be too intense, especially with no meaningful dividend restored yet.
References
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