Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) closed another volatile session on December 9, 2025 near record territory, extending a remarkable multi-day rally powered by its upcoming addition to the S&P 500 and a dramatic fundamental turnaround story.
According to real-time data, CVNA finished Tuesday’s regular session at about $456.33, up roughly 1.9% on the day, after trading between $440 and $459, with after-hours quotes holding almost flat just below the close. That puts the stock right next to its new 52‑week and all‑time intraday high around $458.64, and caps a two‑day surge that began with Monday’s double‑digit jump. [1]
Below is a breakdown of what happened after the bell on December 9 and the key catalysts investors should watch before the U.S. stock market opens on December 10, 2025.
1. How Carvana Traded on December 9, 2025
Fresh price and volume data show that the post‑announcement rally is very much intact:
- Closing price (Dec 9, regular session): ~$456.33
- Daily move: +1.86% vs. a prior close around $447.98 [2]
- After-hours quote (around 5:30 p.m. ET): ~ $456.10, essentially flat versus the close [3]
- Day’s range: roughly $440.20 – $458.64, setting a fresh 52‑week high at the top of that band [4]
- Volume: about 5.7 million shares, lighter than Monday’s surge but still elevated vs typical activity [5]
The move builds on Monday’s explosive session (December 8), when Carvana rose more than 12%, hitting an intraday high near $457 and closing just under $448 after a 10‑day winning streak. [6]
In other words, the December 9 after‑hours tape confirms that:
- Buyers remained in control after Monday’s S&P 500 announcement spike.
- The stock is consolidating near record levels instead of immediately giving back gains.
2. S&P 500 Inclusion: The Engine Behind Carvana’s Rally
The main catalyst is straightforward: Carvana is set to join the S&P 500 index on December 22, 2025, as part of S&P Dow Jones Indices’ quarterly rebalance. [7]
Key points from today’s coverage:
- S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed Carvana will move into the S&P 500, alongside CRH and Comfort Systems USA, with changes effective before the market opens on December 22. [8]
- Carvana’s market value has swelled to around $100 billion, now exceeding legacy Detroit automakers Ford and GM, a stunning reversal from 2022 when bankruptcy fears dominated the narrative. [9]
- Reuters notes that the stock has surged over 8,000% from its 2022 lows, while 2025 alone has seen gains of around 120%+. [10]
Inclusion in the S&P 500 typically produces “forced buying”:
- Index funds and ETFs that track the S&P 500 must buy CVNA before the effective date, often in large size.
- Motley Fool’s analysis today highlights that Monday’s S&P 500 news drove trading volume to roughly 14 million shares, multiple times normal turnover, as passive and active managers repositioned portfolios. [11]
For CVNA, this mechanical demand is now colliding with:
- A thin share float relative to its market cap.
- A history of high short interest and heavy options trading. [12]
That combination is what has many traders talking about a “technical squeeze” rather than just a slow, fundamentals‑driven re‑rating.
3. Today’s Big CVNA Stories (December 9, 2025)
A number of notable news, forecasts and analyses about Carvana were published on December 9, and they collectively help explain why the stock is where it is tonight.
3.1 “Hits All-Time High” – 10‑Day Run and Rate‑Cut Hopes
A widely circulated piece from InsiderMonkey/Finviz notes that Carvana logged 10 straight up days and hit an all-time high on Monday, with intraday levels just under $457 and a final gain of about 12%. [13]
That article also underlines two macro drivers:
- S&P 500 inclusion, prompting portfolio rebalancing into the stock.
- Expectations of a 25‑basis‑point Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday, December 10, which could lower auto financing costs and support used‑car demand. [14]
3.2 “2025 Rally Just Got Another Catalyst” – Turnaround Metrics
A detailed analysis from Motley Fool (syndicated via Nasdaq) frames today’s move as the latest chapter in a 9,000%+ comeback since early 2023. It points to several fundamental improvements behind the rally: [15]
- Gross margin has climbed from roughly 5% at the end of 2023 to nearly 20% in Q3 2025.
- Net debt has dropped from about $8 billion to roughly $3 billion over the same period.
- Q3 2025 unit sales almost hit 156,000 vehicles, up around 40–45% year‑over‑year, with revenue growth above 50%.
However, that same piece stresses important risks:
- A heavy reliance on subprime borrowers, who are more vulnerable if the economy weakens.
- Insider selling totalling tens of millions of dollars in recent weeks.
- A forward P/E multiple north of 60x, implying a lot of good news is already priced in. [16]
3.3 “Retail vs. Wall Street” – Market Manipulation Claims and Short Squeeze Talk
A separate feature from 24/7 Wall St highlights a striking gap between institutional buying and retail skepticism: [17]
- Carvana shares jumped about 10% in pre‑market trading on December 9 after the S&P inclusion news.
- Yet social sentiment scores on Reddit and X sit in bearish territory, around 25 out of 100, with some traders calling the S&P 500 move “one of the greatest market manipulations in history.”
- The article cites over $30 million in insider share sales in early December by senior executives and directors at prices between roughly $370 and $400.
- Index funds are estimated to need ~16 million CVNA shares ahead of the rebalance, versus about 12 million shares sold short, setting up a potential short squeeze as forced buyers meet skeptical short sellers.
The takeaway: Institutions and the S&P 500 committee have embraced the turnaround, while a vocal segment of retail traders remains unconvinced.
3.4 Options Market: Call Buying, Collars and Volatility
Two Barchart columns published today focus on the options market around CVNA: [18]
- One argues that after such a red‑hot rally, Carvana “needs a cool option collar,” essentially recommending hedging gains via calls and puts rather than outright speculation.
- Another piece (“Dear Carvana Stock Fans…”) highlights that December 22, the actual inclusion date, could bring “fireworks” as options traders, short sellers and index funds all collide around the stock.
- A related note on option flows (also referenced via Barchart summaries) suggests that derivatives markets are pricing continued volatility into 2026, with some scenarios envisioning further upside tied to index flows.
In short, options specialists are treating CVNA as a high‑beta, event‑driven name where risk management is as important as directional bets.
3.5 Fresh Analyst Moves Today
A GuruFocus update this morning reported that Evercore ISI: [19]
- Maintained an “In‑Line” rating on Carvana.
- Raised its price target from $395 to $420, signaling a cautiously constructive stance.
The same report compiles recent moves from other major houses:
- Bank of America: Buy rating, target hiked from $385 to $455 on December 8. [20]
- UBS: Initiated with a Buy and $450 target earlier this month. [21]
- Wedbush: Upgraded to Outperform with a $400 target in late November. [22]
- Needham: Reiterated Buy with a $500 target in mid‑November. [23]
- Barclays: Initiated Overweight with a $390 target in November. [24]
Collectively, this paints a picture of increasingly optimistic, but not unanimous, Wall Street sentiment.
4. Fundamentals Behind the Rally
Beyond the index inclusion, Carvana’s surge is rooted in a real business turnaround:
- Return to profitability: Reuters reports that the company swung back to profit after 2022’s crisis, helped by aggressive cost cuts and restructuring. [25]
- Growth in units and revenue:
- Margin expansion: Gross margin has quadrupled versus late 2023 levels, reaching close to 20% in the latest quarter. [28]
- Debt reduction: Net debt has been cut in roughly half, from around $8 billion to approximately $3 billion, easing earlier solvency fears. [29]
StockAnalysis data for the last twelve months reinforces the scale of the turnaround: Carvana shows trailing revenue around $18.3 billion, net income near $629 million, and a market cap just under $100 billion, although those profits are still small relative to valuation. [30]
At the same time, risks remain:
- Customer base skewed to lower‑credit borrowers, who are more sensitive to job losses and higher interest rates. [31]
- Used‑car demand could cool if the broader auto market normalizes after years of supply disruptions and tariff‑related pull‑forward. [32]
- Past accounting concerns: Short-seller Hindenburg Research earlier this year alleged that parts of Carvana’s turnaround were a “mirage” involving large loan sales to related parties; Carvana has strongly rejected those accusations as misleading. [33]
So while operations have clearly improved, skeptics argue that the share price may be running ahead of fundamentals.
5. Valuation and Street Forecasts Going Into December 10
With CVNA hovering around $456 after the bell, valuation has become the central debate.
5.1 Current Valuation Snapshot
Based on aggregated data: [34]
- Trailing P/E: ~104x
- Forward P/E: ~67x
- Market cap: ~$100 billion
- 12‑month analyst target (StockAnalysis consensus): about $415, implying roughly 9% downside from today’s close.
- Analyst consensus rating: overall “Buy”, with about 22–26 firms chiming in.
GuruFocus’ compilation today shows a similar average target around $425, with individual estimates stretching from ~$330 to $500 per share. That average implies mid‑single‑digit downside versus recent trading levels, while its own “fair value” model pegs CVNA closer to $265, implying meaningful overvaluation by that metric. [35]
5.2 What Analysts Are Saying
- Bulls emphasize:
- Cautious voices (including some of today’s commentators) highlight:
For investors, that means going into the December 10 open, the consensus narrative is:
Carvana is a legitimate turnaround success, but its stock is priced for continued perfection and very high growth.
6. Macro Backdrop: Fed, Rates and Used‑Car Credit
One crucial near‑term catalyst for CVNA is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision on December 10.
- Market commentary today (including a Finviz/Zacks‑linked preview) suggests investors widely expect a 25‑basis‑point cut, though the Fed’s tone about future policy may matter as much as the move itself. [42]
- Carvana’s business is deeply tied to auto financing costs, particularly for subprime buyers. Lower rates generally support demand and reduce default risk; a more hawkish‑than‑expected Fed could have the opposite effect. [43]
Given CVNA’s status as a high‑beta, growth‑oriented, consumer‑credit‑sensitive stock, traders are likely to treat Wednesday’s Fed communication as a major volatility event.
7. Key Things to Watch Before the December 10, 2025 Open
For traders and long‑term investors tracking Carvana before the bell on Wednesday, here are the main factors to monitor:
- Pre‑Market Price Action
- Does CVNA hold near $455–$460, or do early orders show profit‑taking after two big days?
- Watch how it trades relative to S&P 500 futures; if broader risk appetite fades, high‑flyers like CVNA can react quickly.
- Flow from Index and Quant Funds
- While the actual S&P 500 inclusion is on December 22, some index funds and quants scale in early.
- Any reported block trades or unusually heavy volume in pre‑market could signal front‑running of rebalance flows. [44]
- Options Implied Volatility and Skew
- Barchart’s commentary around collars and option strategy underlines that implied volatility is elevated and both upside and downside hedges are in demand. [45]
- If call premiums stay extremely rich while puts rise into the Fed meeting, that’s a sign the market expects big swings rather than a quiet grind higher.
- Retail Sentiment vs. Institutional Buying
- 24/7 Wall St tracks social sentiment scores that currently lean bearish, despite institutional upgrades and S&P inclusion. [46]
- A sudden improvement (or further deterioration) in that sentiment overnight could show whether retail traders are capitulating to the rally or doubling down on shorts.
- Fed Messaging Headlines Ahead of the Decision
- Any leaks, speeches or macro data hitting overnight could shift expectations for Wednesday’s meeting, impacting all rate‑sensitive names, including CVNA. [47]
8. Bottom Line: Carvana Heads Into Wednesday on a Knife Edge
After the closing bell on December 9, 2025, Carvana sits at the crossroads of:
- A historic operational turnaround,
- A massive, S&P‑500‑driven technical bid, and
- A valuation that assumes years of strong execution.
Bulls see a fast‑growing, tech‑enabled used‑car platform that has survived its darkest days, repaired its balance sheet, and now earned a spot among America’s blue‑chip companies. [48]
Skeptics focus on stretched multiples, subprime exposure, insider selling, and the risk that index inclusion plus Fed optimism have created a near‑term blow‑off top. [49]
For anyone following CVNA into the December 10 open, the message from today’s news and analysis is clear:
Expect elevated volatility, watch the Fed, monitor index‑related flows, and recognize that Carvana has become one of the market’s most crowded and debated trades going into year‑end.
As always, this overview is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as personalized investment advice. Investors should consider their own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation before making any decision involving Carvana or any other stock.
References
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