Carvana (CVNA) Soars on S&P 500 News: What Investors Need to Know After the Bell on December 8, 2025

Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) just wrapped up one of the biggest trading days in its history, and the story isn’t over yet.

After Monday’s closing bell on December 8, 2025, the online used‑car retailer is trading near record highs as Wall Street digests its upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500 and a wave of fresh analyst upgrades. With another U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut widely expected this week, Carvana has become one of the purest momentum plays in the market – but also one of its most controversial. ^[1]

Here’s a deep dive into where Carvana stock stands after the bell, what’s driving the move, and the key risks and catalysts investors should watch before the market opens on Tuesday, December 9, 2025.

Carvana Stock After the Bell on December 8, 2025

As of the latest trade recorded shortly after the U.S. close on Monday, Carvana shares were around $448, up about 12% on the day. The stock traded between roughly $425 and $457 during the session, with strong volume of nearly 14 million shares.

That puts CVNA:

Within striking distance of its all‑time high around $434–$455, depending on source and time of print. ^[2]
Roughly double where it started 2025 and up nearly 8,000% from its late‑2022 lows, when bankruptcy fears were running hot. ^[3]
Trading at 90–100x earnings and a forward P/E in the high 50s, far richer than traditional auto retailers like CarMax or Detroit’s Big Two. ^[4]

In other words: Monday’s close leaves Carvana priced for near‑flawless execution – and extremely sensitive to any change in sentiment, Fed expectations, or company‑specific news.

The Main Catalyst: S&P 500 Inclusion on December 22

The big story driving Carvana’s after‑hours buzz is simple: CVNA is joining the S&P 500.

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced late last week that Carvana will be added to the S&P 500 before the market opens on December 22, 2025, as part of the quarterly rebalance. ^[5]
The news initially sent the stock up roughly 10% in after‑hours trading following the announcement and another ~9–10% in Monday pre‑market trading, as index funds and momentum traders piled in. ^[6]
Reuters notes that shares have now jumped about 12.5% in Monday’s regular session, extending a 10‑day winning streak and pushing Carvana’s market cap to around $90–100 billion, above Ford and General Motors. ^[7]

Why S&P 500 inclusion matters so much:

Forced buying: Index funds and ETFs that track the S&P 500 are required to own CVNA once it’s officially in the index. That mechanical demand often supports the stock into the effective date. ^[8]
Visibility and liquidity: Many institutional mandates allow or favor S&P 500 constituents, broadening Carvana’s potential shareholder base. ^[9]
Symbolic validation: Moving from “almost bankrupt” to “benchmark member” in three years is a powerful narrative that can fuel retail and momentum interest.

However, history also shows that “buy the rumor, sell the news” is common around index adds. Flows can support the stock on the way into the S&P 500, but once passive buying is largely complete, fundamentals and macro conditions tend to reassert themselves.

From Bankruptcy Fears to Benchmark Darling

To understand why CVNA has become such a lightning rod, you have to look back at its near‑death experience.

By late 2022, Carvana’s total debt was close to $9 billion, the company was slashing headcount, and bankruptcy chatter was everywhere. ^[10]
The stock plunged to around $3–4 per share, down from peak levels near $360 in early 2021. ^[11]
A complex restructuring, aggressive cost cutting, improved pricing and financing economics, and a rebound in used‑car demand all helped turn things around.

Fast‑forward to 2025:

Q3 FY2025 revenue hit about $5.65 billion, up ~54–55% year over year, with record retail unit sales around 156,000 vehicles. ^[12]
GAAP EPS came in near $1.03, up sharply from the prior year, while adjusted EPS around $1.50 beat consensus expectations of about $1.30. ^[13]
Seeking Alpha notes an 87% adjusted EBITDA conversion and net debt reduced to roughly 1.5x trailing EBITDA, giving the company far more financial flexibility than during the 2022 crisis. ^[14]
The stock has gained about 96–100% year‑to‑date, and roughly 60% over the past 12 months, according to Investing.com and Benzinga data. ^[15]

This combination – rapid growth, restored profitability, and a spectacular share‑price recovery – is exactly what index‑add stories are made of. But it also sets an extremely high bar for what Carvana must deliver next.

What Wall Street Is Saying Right Now

Fresh Bullish Calls and Higher Price Targets

Monday’s rally didn’t happen in a vacuum. A wave of bullish analyst notes hit just as the S&P 500 decision became public.

Key highlights:

Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating and raised its price target from $385 to $455, citing strong fundamentals and the S&P 500 inclusion as a major catalyst. ^[16]
UBS recently initiated coverage with a Buy and a $450 target, while Needham reaffirmed a Buy with a $500 target and Wedbush upgraded Carvana to Outperform, lifting its target to $400. ^[17]
MarketBeat tracks additional bullish targets from JPMorgan ($490), BTIG ($450) and RBC ($460), contributing to a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target near $425. ^[18]

On average, GuruFocus estimates that 24 analysts see about 5% upside from levels around $400, with targets ranging from roughly $330 to $500. ^[19]

Bank of America’s latest report goes further, projecting:

Carvana could grow retail units at roughly 20% annually between 2027 and 2032 (up from a prior 18.5% assumption).
The company is on track to overtake CarMax in quarterly used‑car units by 2026.
Improved credit ratings and S&P 500 membership could lower its cost of capital and broaden its institutional investor base. ^[20]

In short, the bull case views today’s move as just one step in a longer runway of growth, margin improvement, and market‑share gains.

Valuation Warnings and “Limited Upside” Concerns

Not everyone is comfortable with Carvana’s trajectory at current prices.

Several pieces published on December 8 specifically flag valuation risk:

Benzinga’s quantitative value framework places Carvana in the bottom 10th percentile of the market on value, arguing that its fundamentals haven’t fully kept pace with the explosive share‑price rally, even as its growth score is near the top of the market. ^[21]
Investing.com’s fair‑value work suggests CVNA is now “slightly overvalued”, pointing to a P/E ratio above 90, a market cap around $87–95 billion, and roughly 45–55% revenue growth over the last twelve months. ^[22]
GuruFocus’ GF Value model pegs Carvana’s one‑year fair value closer to $265, implying over 30% downside from the roughly $400 area used in its analysis. ^[23]
Simply Wall St’s forecast‑based valuation framework estimates a fair value around $419, only single‑digit upside from recent trading levels, and highlights execution risks around expansion and the ADESA integration. ^[24]

Opinion pieces and newsletters have also sounded a note of caution:

An Inc. feature highlights that Carvana’s P/E multiple is several times higher than CarMax and the broader retail auto sector, suggesting the stock “might be overvalued” despite the dramatic turnaround. ^[25]
Seeking Alpha’s long‑form analysis describes Carvana’s reversal to growth as “expensive”, arguing that the stock already prices in dominant long‑term market share and “near‑perfect” execution. ^[26]

The tension going into Tuesday’s open is clear: Wall Street broadly likes the story and the trajectory – but many models say the valuation is stretched.

Insider Selling, Hedge Funds and Who Owns CVNA Now

A Wave of Insider Selling

Another important theme emerging in Monday’s coverage: insiders are selling into the strength.

SEC filings show that director Michael Maroone, President Thomas Taira, CFO Mark Jenkins and COO Benjamin Huston have collectively sold tens of millions of dollars’ worth of shares since October. ^[27]
One MarketBeat snapshot notes that insiders have disposed of around 422,000 shares worth approximately $156 million in the last 90 days, though insiders still hold over 16% of the company. ^[28]
Most of these transactions were executed under 10b5‑1 trading plans, meaning they were pre‑scheduled and not necessarily a reaction to short‑term news – but the optics are still hard to ignore. ^[29]

Insider selling does not automatically mean a top, but in a story‑stock trading at high multiples, it’s a risk factor investors will keep in mind before adding exposure.

Big Winners: Viking, Coatue and Other Hedge Funds

On the other side of the ledger, some hedge funds are sitting on enormous gains:

Benzinga reports that Viking Global and Coatue Management built positions in the mid‑$260s to high‑$270s and now enjoy a combined paper profit of about $540 million after the S&P 500 announcement and Monday’s surge. ^[30]
MarketBeat data suggests over 56% of the company is owned by institutions, with a diverse mix of hedge funds, mutual funds and long‑only managers. ^[31]

This mix – heavy institutional ownership, large hedge‑fund winners, and insider selling – can amplify volatility. If momentum reverses, profit‑taking from any of these groups could accelerate downside moves.

Short Sellers, Hindenburg, and the Shadow of 2022

Despite the rally, Carvana is not controversy‑free.

Reuters notes that a January short report from Hindenburg Research accused Carvana of using related‑party loan sales to inflate results and called its turnaround a “mirage.” Carvana has publicly rejected those claims as “intentionally misleading and inaccurate.” ^[32]
Short interest has shrunk to near the lowest levels in years, after bears absorbed an estimated $1 billion in mark‑to‑market losses during the recent squeeze. ^[33]

Lower short interest means fewer obvious “fuel sources” for future squeezes, but also suggests that a lot of the skeptics have already covered, leaving a shareholder base more heavily skewed toward bulls and momentum traders.

Macro Backdrop: Fed Meeting Looms Over High‑Growth Names

Carvana’s setup into December 9 can’t be separated from the broader macro environment.

U.S. stocks pulled back modestly on Monday as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025, scheduled later this week. ^[34]
Futures markets and several outlets (including Investopedia and Benzinga) suggest odds north of 80% for a third consecutive rate cut, with the S&P 500 hovering near record levels despite rising Treasury yields. ^[35]
Lower rates are particularly positive for Carvana, as they reduce financing costs for inventory and improve monthly payment affordability for consumers – both critical levers for used‑car demand. ^[36]

For CVNA, this means:

A dovish Fed tone could reinforce the bull case and keep high‑growth, high‑multiple names in favor.
A more cautious or hawkish‑sounding Fed (for example, signaling fewer cuts in 2026) could pressure lofty valuations like Carvana’s, even if company fundamentals remain intact.

Heading into Tuesday’s open, Carvana is effectively a leveraged bet on both its own execution and continued easy‑money expectations.

Key Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 9, 2025

Here’s a practical checklist for investors and traders looking at CVNA ahead of Tuesday’s session.

1. Overnight Headlines and Analyst Notes

Any new research notes, target changes, or ratings shifts could matter disproportionately given how heavily the stock has traded around analyst narratives over the past month.
Keep an eye on commentary from the more cautious camps – quantitative shops, valuation‑focused analysts and skeptics revisiting the Hindenburg claims – as well as any fresh upgrades from big banks.

2. Pre‑Market Price Action and Liquidity

Carvana has already shown it can move 8–10% in pre‑market trading on news flow. ^[37]
Watch for:
- Gap‑ups above Monday’s highs near the mid‑$450s, which could trigger further momentum and short‑term FOMO buying. ^[38]
- Gap‑downs or heavy pre‑market selling, which would hint that some funds are using the S&P 500 story as a liquidity event to lock in profits.

3. Technical Zones and Volatility

Without turning this into a chart‑party, a few levels matter:

Recent all‑time high zone: roughly $435–$460 has now been tested by multiple intraday spikes. ^[39]
Psychological round numbers: $400 (recent breakout area) and $500 (if the rally continues) could act as psychological support/resistance.
With a beta above 3.5, daily swings of 8–15% are entirely plausible, even without new fundamental information. ^[40]

For short‑term traders, that volatility is opportunity; for long‑term holders, it’s noise – but emotionally difficult noise.

4. Fed Expectations and Macro Data

While the Fed decision comes later this week, markets will keep repricing expectations every day:

Any shift in rate‑cut odds or Treasury yields on Tuesday could spill over into CVNA.
High‑duration, high‑multiple stocks like Carvana tend to trade as “long duration assets” – their valuations are uniquely sensitive to small changes in discount rates.

5. Flows Around S&P 500 Rebalance

We’re still almost two weeks away from the December 22 index effective date, but:

Active managers may front‑run passive flows, continuing to add ahead of the official inclusion.
Others may sell into the strength, betting that once passive buying is done, the stock could mean‑revert.

Expect S&P‑related headlines, commentary about index funds, and discussions of “forced buying” to continue right up to the rebalance date. ^[41]

The Longer‑Term Question: Can Fundamentals Catch Up?

Beyond Tuesday morning and the December 22 S&P 500 add, the real question for Carvana investors is whether the business can justify its current valuation.

Bullish arguments:

Sustained double‑digit unit growth, with some analysts modeling 20%+ annual unit CAGRs into the next decade. ^[42]
Structural market‑share gains from offline dealers and potentially surpassing CarMax in U.S. used‑car units by 2026. ^[43]
Improving margins, strong operating leverage, and a more efficient cost structure post‑restructuring. ^[44]
Better credit ratings and lower funding costs, especially if rates keep falling. ^[45]

Bearish or cautious arguments:

A P/E multiple in the 90–100x range and forward multiples far above peers, leaving little room for error. ^[46]
Cyclical risk in used‑car demand and auto credit, especially if the economy slows or unemployment rises. ^[47]
The lingering shadow of the Hindenburg short report and the need for ongoing transparency around loan sales, securitization, and related‑party transactions. ^[48]
Significant insider selling and quantitative models (Benzinga, GuruFocus, InvestingPro, Simply Wall St) that flag the stock as overvalued or only modestly undervalued at best. ^[49]

For long‑term investors, Tuesday’s open is just one more data point. The bigger issue is whether Carvana can keep executing – growing units, widening margins, managing its debt load, and avoiding any governance or accounting missteps – in a sector that has historically been volatile and cyclical.

Bottom Line

Going into the December 9, 2025 open, Carvana sits at the crossroads of:

A massive S&P 500 inclusion catalyst
Record‑high prices and extreme volatility
Bullish Wall Street targets that still (mostly) sit below the most aggressive trading levels
Valuation models and insider activity that point to meaningful downside risk if sentiment turns

For traders, CVNA will likely remain one of the market’s most active tickers on Tuesday morning. For investors, the stock is a high‑beta, high‑expectation bet that Carvana’s stunning comeback can evolve into a durable, profitable franchise – not just a spectacular squeeze.