Key Takeaways
- Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) closed on Wednesday, December 10, 2025 at about $467.67, up roughly 2.5% on the day, after trading between ~$454 and ~$474 with volume near 4.9 million shares. [1]
- In after-hours trading, CVNA hovered just under $470, recently quoted around $468–469 – essentially flat to slightly higher versus the regular close. [2]
- The move capped Carvana’s 12th consecutive daily gain and a roughly 51% surge over that stretch, pushing the stock to fresh record highs and extending one of the most dramatic comebacks in recent market history. [3]
- The dominant driver remains Carvana’s upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500, effective before the market opens on December 22, 2025, which will force index funds tracking the benchmark to buy shares. [4]
- Wall Street remains broadly bullish: recent data show 14–16 “Buy/Outperform” ratings and 0 formal “Sell” ratings, with a median 12‑month price target around $445 and a range of about $390 to $500 — now below the current share price. [5]
- Skeptics warn that Carvana trades at more than 50–60× forward earnings, with short interest around 8–11% of float and a growing chorus of bearish theses focused on credit risk, cash flow and insider selling. [6]
- Heading into the U.S. market open on Thursday, December 11, 2025, traders will be watching whether CVNA’s record run can extend further amid a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting and elevated options and short‑interest positioning. [7]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Where Carvana Stock Stands After the Bell on December 10, 2025
Carvana’s rally showed no signs of fatigue on Wednesday.
- Regular session: CVNA finished the day at $467.67, up 2.49% on the session. The stock opened near $454.11, hit an intraday high around $474.31, and never traded below the open, closing near the upper end of the day’s range. About 4.9 million shares changed hands, above its recent average daily volume. [8]
- After-hours session: By 6:00 p.m. ET, extended-hours data showed Carvana trading around $468.99, up roughly 0.3% from the regular close, with an after‑hours range between about $467 and $470. [9]
- Momentum backdrop: According to MarketWatch, Wednesday marked Carvana’s 12th consecutive daily gain, its longest winning streak ever, with the stock up about 51% over that stretch and pushing deeper into record territory. [10]
Other estimates peg Carvana’s share price gains since late 2022 at more than 8,000–10,000%, taking the company from near‑penny stock status to a market value above $80–100 billion, at times surpassing legacy Detroit automakers by market capitalization. [11]
As of Wednesday’s close, several data providers list CVNA’s trailing P/E ratio around 100+ and forward P/E north of 50, alongside a price‑to‑sales ratio near 5–6, underscoring how much of the turnaround story is already priced into the shares. [12]
The Big Catalyst: S&P 500 Inclusion on December 22
Carvana’s latest leg higher began last week when S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the company will join the S&P 500 index before the market opens on December 22, 2025. [13]
Key implications:
- Forced buying: Index funds and ETFs that track the S&P 500 will be required to buy CVNA shares, creating a non‑discretionary wave of demand around the rebalance date. [14]
- Front‑running flows: Active managers and traders often front-run index additions, buying ahead of the official change and potentially selling into the rebalance. Several commentaries note that much of the recent surge likely reflects this anticipatory positioning. [15]
- Status upgrade: Inclusion in the S&P 500 is viewed as a stamp of legitimacy, moving Carvana from turnaround speculation into the mainstream of U.S. large‑cap equities. Analysts at multiple outlets describe this as a powerful signal that the company is no longer merely a distressed used‑car dealer but a scaled digital retail platform. [16]
Earlier in the week, headlines from Reuters, MarketBeat and others highlighted that Carvana’s valuation now exceeds that of some long‑established auto manufacturers, an almost unthinkable reversal from 2022 when bankruptcy fears swirled around the business. [17]
Fundamentals Behind the Rally: Record Q3 2025 Results
While index inclusion is the short‑term spark, Carvana’s surge rests on a substantial operational turnaround.
Record Q3 2025 by the numbers
In its third‑quarter 2025 earnings release, Carvana reported: [18]
- 156,000 retail units sold, up about 44% year over year
- Revenue of roughly $5.65 billion, up ~55% year over year
- Net income of about $263 million, up over $100 million from the prior year
- Adjusted EBITDA of around $637 million, also a record
QuiverQuant and other aggregators peg Q3 revenue growth at about 54–55% and emphasize that Carvana is now consistently printing positive net income and EBITDA, in sharp contrast to the heavy losses that characterized 2022. [19]
TradingView data show trailing EBITDA around $2.0 billion with an EBITDA margin near 10%, reinforcing the perception that the company has moved beyond emergency cost‑cutting into a more sustainable profitability phase.
What changed?
Commentary across TipRanks, MarketBeat and other outlets points to several drivers: [20]
- Aggressive cost reductions and logistics efficiencies during the downturn
- Improved gross profit per unit, helped by better pricing power and financing economics
- Increased use of automation and AI in recon, pricing, and underwriting decisions
- A stronger securitization pipeline for auto loans, boosting financing profits
In short, bulls argue that Carvana is no longer just flipping cars online; it’s running a vertically integrated, data‑driven financial and logistics platform around used‑vehicle retail.
Wall Street’s View: Bullish Ratings, Stretched Targets
Analyst ratings and targets
Recent data compiled by QuiverQuant and other platforms show: [21]
- 19 analysts have issued 12‑month price targets for CVNA in the last six months
- The median target is about $445 per share
- The target range runs from roughly $390–$500
- Recent actions include:
- Evercore ISI: $420 target (Dec 9, 2025)
- BofA Securities: $455 target (Dec 8, 2025)
- UBS: $450 target (Dec 1, 2025)
- Needham: $500 high‑end target (Nov 17, 2025)
- Barclays: $390 target (Nov 12, 2025)
- Citigroup: $445 target (Nov 3, 2025)
Most of these calls are “Buy,” “Overweight,” or “Outperform”, with virtually no outright “Sell” ratings in the recent batch. [22]
However, with the stock closing around $468, CVNA now trades above both the median and several average target price estimates (low‑to‑mid $400s), prompting some services to note that the stock has effectively overshot the typical 12‑month valuation models. [23]
Valuation concerns
Skeptical pieces on Seeking Alpha and other investor sites describe Carvana as potentially priced for perfection after its “best quarter ever,” warning that any slowdown in growth or profitability could trigger sharp multiple compression. [24]
Finviz and other data aggregators currently show: [25]
- Trailing P/E above 100
- Forward P/E in the 60–70x range
- Price‑to‑sales near 5.5
- Short float around 8–10% and short ratio of roughly 3–4 days to cover
These metrics are far richer than traditional auto retailers and even many high‑growth tech names, which is exactly what keeps both bulls and bears so animated around CVNA.
The Bear Case: Fragility, Credit Risk and Insider Selling
The rally has not silenced critics — it has amplified them.
Structured finance & cash flow worries
A recent Finviz/Insider Monkey summary of a bearish Substack thesis portrays Carvana as a “fragility engine” whose profitability is heavily dependent on gains from selling auto loans rather than core car retailing. [26]
Key bearish claims include:
- Loan sale gains reportedly make up the vast majority of reported net income year‑to‑date, raising concern that core retail operations remain structurally unprofitable.
- Carvana is seen as relying heavily on subprime or higher‑risk borrowers, then securitizing those loans – leaving it vulnerable if credit conditions tighten or funding markets seize up.
- Bears point to negative operating cash flow, rising inventory levels and past equity dilution as signs the business still leans on capital markets support.
- The company still carries over $5 billion in debt, including Payment‑in‑Kind notes that can obscure immediate cash strain.
These points echo some of the allegations made earlier in 2025 by Hindenburg Research, which accused Carvana of aggressive accounting and questioned the sustainability of its turnaround — allegations the company has disputed. [27]
Legal, regulatory and governance overhangs
Bearish analysts also highlight:
- Past license suspensions and regulatory actions in multiple states related to titling and registration issues. [28]
- Ongoing securities and consumer lawsuits, which could lead to meaningful legal costs over time. [29]
- A highly concentrated ownership and voting structure, with the Garcia family maintaining outsized control. [30]
Insider selling
Form 4 filings show several Carvana executives have recently exercised stock options and sold shares under 10b5‑1 trading plans, including multiple sales reported on December 10, 2025. [31]
While such transactions can be routine, skeptics view the pattern of large insider sales amid a parabolic rally as a warning sign that management may be taking profits into strength.
“Could fall off a cliff”?
Benzinga and other outlets have highlighted Carvana as one of the high‑momentum consumer stocks that could be vulnerable to a sharp pullback after massive runs, particularly if macro conditions or sentiment shift. [32]
At the same time, social‑media monitoring platforms and outlets like 24/7 Wall St and QuiverQuant show mixed retail sentiment, with some traders openly calling the S&P 500 addition “market manipulation” and betting against the rally even as momentum funds pile in. [33]
Macro Backdrop: Fed Meeting and Rate‑Sensitive Rally
Carvana’s story isn’t just company‑specific — it’s tightly linked to interest rates.
A Benzinga note on Wednesday framed CVNA’s move explicitly in the context of a Federal Reserve meeting widely expected to deliver a third straight 25‑basis‑point rate cut, while warning of the risk of a so‑called “hawkish cut” that could dampen risk appetite. [34]
Key points from that analysis and broader market coverage: [35]
- Lower rates improve used‑car affordability by reducing monthly payments on auto loans — directly supporting Carvana’s demand.
- Carvana’s profitability is highly sensitive to funding markets for asset‑backed securities; lower rates can widen the spread it earns on securitized loans.
- If the Fed signals a slower or shallower easing path than markets expect, high‑beta, rate‑sensitive names like CVNA could face sudden volatility.
That macro backdrop is essential context for Thursday’s open: Carvana isn’t rallying in a vacuum — it is part of a broader risk‑on trade that could reverse if the interest‑rate narrative shifts.
Positioning Under the Surface: Short Interest and Options
Short‑interest and options data help explain why price swings have been so large.
- Short interest: Recent NYSE‑based data show short interest around 11–14 million shares, roughly 8–11% of the public float, with a days‑to‑cover ratio near 3–4 days. [36]
- History of heavy shorting: In 2022, Carvana was one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the market, with reports citing short interest levels above 50% of float at peak — making its subsequent rally partly a textbook short squeeze. [37]
- Options market: Options analytics suggest elevated implied volatility (around the low‑60% range for certain December expiries), and rising open interest in out‑of‑the‑money calls, signaling active speculative trading on both sides. [38]
Taken together, this positioning means price gaps — both up and down — can be amplified as shorts cover and options dealers hedge. That’s particularly relevant for what could happen around Thursday’s open and into the Fed decision.
What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11, 2025
With Carvana coming off a record close and a 12‑day winning streak, here are the key things traders and investors may want to monitor ahead of Thursday’s bell:
1. Can CVNA Hold Above the $460–$470 Zone?
- Wednesday’s close around $468 and after‑hours action near $469 place CVNA well above its early‑December levels and prior resistance. [39]
- Market commentary notes the stock is trading more than 30% above its 50‑day moving average and nearly 50% above its 200‑day moving average, highlighting how extended the trend has become. [40]
Watch for:
- Early‑session profit‑taking after a 51% 12‑day run, or
- Another momentum surge that could push the stock deeper into price discovery ahead of the S&P inclusion.
2. Any New Headlines — or Lack Thereof
Carvana’s official investor relations page shows no new corporate press releases since November 12, 2025, meaning the recent price action has been driven mostly by the S&P 500 news and market sentiment, not fresh company‑specific announcements. [41]
Watch for:
- Any new filings, loan securitizations, or regulatory updates hitting the tape overnight or pre‑market.
- Additional insider transaction disclosures, which could influence sentiment in a stock already sensitive to governance concerns. [42]
3. Fed Messaging and Rate‑Sensitive Names
On Thursday, the market will still be digesting the Fed’s rate decision and forward guidance, which Benzinga and others frame as a make‑or‑break catalyst for Carvana’s interest‑rate‑levered model. [43]
Watch for:
- Moves in Treasury yields and credit spreads, which can quickly translate into changes in auto‑loan and securitization economics.
- Cross‑asset behavior: if high‑beta growth names broadly sell off on a more hawkish‑than‑expected Fed tone, CVNA could move disproportionately given its elevated valuation.
4. Short‑Covering vs. Fresh Shorting
With short interest still elevated but far below 2022’s extremes, Thursday’s open could reveal whether: [44]
- Shorts continue to cover into strength, potentially fueling further upside, or
- New or existing bears re‑establish positions at these higher levels, viewing the S&P 500 inclusion as the final stage of a squeeze.
High short interest combined with S&P 500 flows creates the potential for both sharp spikes and abrupt air pockets.
5. Options‑Driven Volatility Around Key Strikes
Options data show significant interest in near‑dated calls and puts around the $450–$500 strikes, with December expiries drawing notable open‑interest increases. [45]
Watch for:
- Whether early‑session flows cluster around these strikes, potentially forcing dealers to hedge aggressively and amplify intraday swings.
- Any large block trades or unusual options activity that might hint at institutional positioning into the S&P 500 rebalance window.
6. Index and ETF Flows
While the official S&P 500 inclusion does not occur until December 22, active managers and ETFs often begin adjusting earlier. [46]
Watch for:
- Elevated volume in broad S&P 500 ETFs that could be partially linked to pre‑positioning in new constituents like Carvana.
- Any disproportionately large closing or opening auction prints in CVNA, which might signal index‑related activity.
Bottom Line: A High‑Wire Act Headed Into Thursday’s Open
As of the after‑hours session on December 10, 2025, Carvana stock is:
- At all‑time highs, up more than 50% in less than three weeks
- Poised to enter the S&P 500, guaranteeing mechanical demand from index trackers
- Celebrated by many analysts for a genuine earnings turnaround
- Criticized by bears for aggressive financial engineering, legal risk, heavy debt and lofty valuation multiples
- Surrounded by meaningful short interest and options activity, which can turbocharge moves in either direction
For traders and longer‑term investors heading into Thursday, December 11, the key is less about a single headline and more about how momentum, Fed‑driven macro forces, index flows and skeptical positioning intersect around a stock that has already delivered one of the market’s most extreme comebacks.
Once again, nothing in this article is a recommendation to buy, hold or sell CVNA. It is a snapshot of where the story stands after the bell on December 10, 2025, and the main dynamics to consider before the next trading day begins.
References
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