Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) ended Friday, December 19, 2025, on a softer note—even as the broader U.S. market finished higher—before steadying slightly in after-hours trading. The timing matters: today was a major “triple witching” expiration day on Wall Street, and it also lands in the final stretch ahead of Carvana’s scheduled entry into the S&P 500 at the start of next week. [1]
One important calendar note up front: U.S. stock markets are closed on Saturday (December 20) and Sunday (December 21). The next regular session is Monday, December 22, 2025—the same day Carvana is set to be added to the S&P 500 prior to the open. [2]
Carvana stock after hours: the numbers right after the bell
Carvana shares closed at $450.22, down 3.33% on the day after swinging through a wide intraday range. In after-hours trading, the stock edged up to about $451.01 as of early evening. [3]
Key end-of-day data points (Friday, Dec. 19, 2025):
- Close: $450.22 (–3.33%) [4]
- After hours: ~$451.01 (+0.18% after the close) [5]
- Day’s range: $450.08 to $474.89 [6]
- Volume: ~28.5 million shares (well above recent sessions) [7]
The headline: a down day in the regular session, but no major additional damage after the close—a setup that often signals the market is waiting for the next catalyst rather than reacting to a single breaking headline.
Why CVNA moved today: triple witching plus the S&P 500 “countdown effect”
1) Triple witching can distort volume and intraday moves
Friday was a “triple witching” day—when stock options, index options, and index futures expire at the same time. Axios reported that more than $7 trillion in contracts were set to expire, with Citi estimating $7.1 trillion in equity options rolling off. [8]
These sessions can produce outsized volume and sharp, sometimes confusing price action as large investors:
- close or roll hedges,
- rebalance portfolios,
- unwind expiring options positions,
- and reposition for the next quarter. [9]
Crucially, high volume doesn’t automatically mean a lasting trend. Axios notes triple witching days have historically been high-volume but often lower-volatility than their reputation suggests—because the event is known far in advance and positioning is often managed before the closing hour. [10]
2) Carvana’s S&P 500 inclusion is imminent—and that can create mechanical trading
Carvana is scheduled to join the S&P 500 prior to the open on Monday, December 22, as part of index changes tied to the quarterly rebalance. [11]
That matters because S&P 500 additions can drive mechanical demand from index-tracking funds that must own the stock. Reuters has emphasized this dynamic, noting the inclusion is expected to spur purchases from index trackers. [12]
Axios also specifically called out that Carvana is being added to the S&P 500 in this rebalance window, underscoring why today’s rebalancing/expiration mix was especially relevant for CVNA. [13]
The practical takeaway for traders and investors: today’s price action may reflect index/derivatives mechanics as much as (or more than) fundamentals.
The market backdrop: stocks rose Friday, but CVNA didn’t follow
While Carvana finished down, the broader market ended the day higher. The Associated Press reported the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, the Nasdaq rose 1.3%, and the Dow added 0.4% on Friday. [14]
When a high-beta stock like Carvana diverges from the index on a major derivatives and rebalancing day, the move often becomes less about “risk-on vs. risk-off” and more about positioning, flows, and idiosyncratic catalysts.
Today’s Carvana headlines: what was actually “new” on Dec. 19
Not every news item moves a stock immediately, but if you’re building a complete “before the next open” picture, today did bring fresh company headlines—particularly on brand partnerships.
Carvana expands pickleball sponsorship
Carvana announced it will become the title sponsor of The PPA Masters, renaming the event “The Carvana Masters”, with the tournament scheduled for January 12–18, 2026 in Rancho Mirage, California. [15]
For investors, this isn’t an earnings revision—but it does signal continued investment in marketing and brand visibility at a time when Carvana is increasingly in the spotlight.
Fresh analyst actions today: new price targets hit the tape
If you’re looking for “today’s forecasts and analyses,” the most market-relevant items were analyst updates that dropped on Dec. 19.
Wedbush lifts Carvana target to $500
A note circulated via TheFly/TipRanks said Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt raised Carvana’s price target to $500 from $400 and maintained an Outperform rating. [16]
BTIG reiterates a $450 target
BTIG reiterated its view with a $450 price target, per multiple market summaries of the note and aggregation services tracking analyst actions. [17]
Where consensus sits right now
According to StockAnalysis’ compiled analyst data, Carvana carries a consensus “Buy” rating, with:
- Average price target: about $431.32
- Median target:$450
- Range:$275 (low) to $550 (high) [18]
That spread tells you something important: Wall Street is not of one mind. Even with bullish targets as high as $550, the average target sits below Friday’s close—suggesting that after the stock’s dramatic run, many analysts see more volatility and less “easy upside” from here. [19]
Fundamentals check: the business performance that put CVNA back in the spotlight
Carvana’s stock story isn’t only about flows—it’s also about a turnaround narrative that’s been reinforced by results.
In its third-quarter 2025 report, Carvana posted:
- 155,941 retail units sold (+44% YoY)
- $5.647 billion revenue (+55% YoY)
- Net income of $263 million
- Adjusted EBITDA of $637 million [20]
Carvana also said it expected (assuming a stable environment):
- Q4 retail units sold above 150,000, and
- full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of its previously communicated $2.0–$2.2 billion range. [21]
Reuters has framed this as part of a sharp reversal from the company’s 2022 stress period, describing a three-year turnaround and highlighting how Carvana’s market value surged alongside improving fundamentals. [22]
What to watch before the next market open (Monday, Dec. 22)
Here’s the practical pre-market checklist for Carvana stock holders and watchers heading into the next session.
1) The S&P 500 inclusion “open” and the first full day of post-inclusion trading
Carvana is scheduled to be added to the S&P 500 effective prior to Monday’s open. [23]
What that can mean in real trading terms:
- potentially unusual opening prints and volatility,
- elevated volume as passive funds finalize holdings,
- and the classic question: “buy the inclusion, sell the news?”
There’s no rule that stocks must fall after inclusion—but the risk of a short-term air pocket rises when a big portion of demand is mechanical and time-bound.
2) Post–triple witching positioning
With a massive expiration event behind the market, positioning resets. Axios noted the day can trigger huge volume as investors roll positions and rebalance, but the effect is not always directionally predictable. [24]
For CVNA specifically, watch whether:
- volatility compresses (a sign “event risk” is fading), or
- volatility persists (a sign traders are carrying risk into next week rather than exiting it).
3) Analyst narrative: momentum vs. valuation
Today’s analyst actions underline the debate:
- the bull case centers on continued share gains, scale benefits, and a durable profitability profile, with new targets like $500 reinforcing that optimism. [25]
- the skeptical case is that the stock has already priced in a huge amount of good news—reflected in the fact that the average target price is below Friday’s close. [26]
4) Key price levels the market just defined
Without overcomplicating technicals, Friday’s tape created simple reference points many traders will use Monday:
- ~$450: the close and the day’s low zone (a psychological and tactical level) [27]
- ~$475: where sellers showed up intraday (today’s high area) [28]
- ~$485: a recent one-year high watermark cited in analyst summaries and pricing data [29]
If CVNA gaps above Friday’s upper range on Monday, it may signal renewed inclusion-driven demand. If it breaks below Friday’s lows, it may signal the opposite: event-driven buyers are done, and liquidity is searching for a new equilibrium.
5) Any new company filings or additional corporate updates
Carvana’s investor relations feed is active (today’s sponsorship release is proof). [30]
Given how widely held and widely traded CVNA has become, even “non-financial” corporate headlines can amplify sentiment—especially in a momentum name.
Bottom line for Carvana stock heading into the next session
Carvana closed down 3.33% Friday but stabilized in after-hours trading near $451, after a day shaped by major market structure events—triple witching and index rebalancing dynamics—with the S&P 500 addition scheduled for Monday’s open. [31]
Add in today’s fresh Wall Street calls—Wedbush lifting its target to $500 while BTIG stayed at $450—and the setup for Monday is clear: expect elevated attention and potentially elevated volatility, even if no new fundamental headline breaks. [32]
References
1. apnews.com, 2. press.spglobal.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. stockanalysis.com, 8. www.axios.com, 9. www.axios.com, 10. www.axios.com, 11. press.spglobal.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.axios.com, 14. apnews.com, 15. investors.carvana.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. investors.carvana.com, 21. investors.carvana.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. press.spglobal.com, 24. www.axios.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. investors.carvana.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.tipranks.com
