As of December 4, 2025, Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) is one of the market’s most hotly debated stocks – with Wall Street upgrades, franchise expansion and S&P 500 chatter on one side, and sharp new bear theses and algorithmic downside forecasts on the other.
Carvana stock today: price, performance and volatility
Carvana shares closed around $398–$399 on December 4, 2025, up roughly 1% on the day according to multiple real‑time quote providers and MarketBeat’s live news page. [1]
Over the past year, CVNA has traded between roughly $148 (52‑week low in April) and $413 (52‑week high in late July), putting the current price only a few percent below the high and well over 150% above the low. [2]
Depending on which share classes you include, this implies a market capitalization in the $80–85 billion range, placing Carvana firmly in large‑cap territory and making it a credible candidate for major index inclusion. [3]
One recent write‑up estimated that Carvana’s stock has roughly doubled year‑to‑date, underscoring how powerful the 2025 rebound has been after the company’s near‑death experience during the 2022–23 downturn. [4]
On the risk side, Carvana remains highly volatile: StockInvest.us notes recent daily swings of about 4–6%, with a typical intraday trading range above 5%. [5]
Short interest is still meaningful, with one data provider putting short interest near 10% of the float, suggesting the stock remains a battleground for bulls and bears. [6]
Why CVNA is moving on December 4, 2025
UBS initiates coverage with a “Strong‑Buy” and $450 target
The biggest headline today is UBS Group’s initiation/upgrade of Carvana to a “Strong‑Buy” rating with a $450 price target, implying mid‑teens upside from current levels. [7]
In a widely cited MarketWatch piece summarizing the UBS note, analyst Joseph Spak describes Carvana as a “true disruptor” in the used‑car market, arguing that its online platform and customer experience are “best‑in‑class” and position it to capture more share in what is still a largely offline industry. [8]
Key points from UBS:
- Carvana currently holds roughly 1.5% of total used‑vehicle sales and about 3% of the retail segment.
- UBS sees that share rising to around 4% by 2030, and potentially toward 8% over the next decade as online used‑car buying grows from ~2% of the market today. [9]
- The firm argues that Carvana’s scale, logistics network and technology give it structural cost and experience advantages versus traditional dealers.
The upgrade helped drive today’s move higher, and MarketBeat’s “Why Is Carvana Up Today?” note explicitly cites the UBS Strong‑Buy call and $450 target as a key intraday catalyst. [10]
Q3 2025: record results and bullish sector coverage
Carvana’s strong third‑quarter 2025 earnings remain the fundamental backdrop for the stock’s rally:
- Retail units sold: 155,941, up 44% year over year
- Revenue: $5.65 billion, up 55% year over year
- Net income: $263 million, a 4.7% net margin
- Adjusted EBITDA: $637 million, an 11.3% margin [11]
Management also guided to:
- Q4 2025 retail units above 150,000, and
- Full‑year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of its prior $2.0–$2.2 billion range. [12]
A Yahoo Finance “online‑retail earnings review” cited by MarketBeat singled out Carvana as a standout within the e‑commerce cohort, pointing to the unusual combination of rapid top‑line growth and rising margins. [13]
That positive narrative – “fast growth + real profits” – is a core reason many analysts feel comfortable giving Carvana premium multiples despite its volatile history.
Jim Cramer’s enthusiasm and “resurrection” narrative
A separate catalyst this week has been Jim Cramer’s very public enthusiasm for Carvana. In a recent CNBC segment summarized by Invezz, Cramer:
- Called Carvana “one of his favourite companies” heading into 2026
- Argued that CarMax has lagged in part because “CVNA has a better business model”
- Praised CEO Ernie Garcia for delivering a “frictionless” used‑car buying experience
- Framed Carvana as a company that had a near‑death experience but then staged a “resurrection” and is now “winning in one of the biggest markets in the world” [14]
Cramer also highlighted that Carvana controls only a few percent of the used‑car market but could see outsized gains if it moves from roughly 3% to 4% share, a small move in percentage points but a large move in unit volume and profit dollars. [15]
Franchise expansion: a fourth CDJR store, now in Atlanta
Operationally, Carvana continues to blur the line between digital platform and traditional dealership.
On December 4, CDG’s “Car Dealership Guy” news site reported that Carvana has acquired its fourth new‑car franchise – another Chrysler‑Dodge‑Jeep‑Ram (CDJR) store, this time in metro Atlanta. [16]
The report notes:
- This is Carvana’s fourth CDJR franchise, following earlier acquisitions in Arizona, Dallas and Southern California.
- Atlanta is both Carvana’s first market historically and a fast‑growing metro with robust car demand, making it a strategically important region. [17]
While the franchise footprint is tiny compared with Carvana’s online operation, these stores deepen manufacturer relationships and can provide additional sourcing channels, service capabilities and local brand presence.
S&P 500 inclusion chatter
A Reuters item carried on TradingView and Google Finance today flagged Carvana and Marvell Technology as among Stephens’ top candidates for upcoming S&P 500 additions. [18]
S&P 500 inclusion is not guaranteed – index committees weigh multiple qualitative and quantitative factors – but even speculation can be meaningful because:
- Inclusion would force index funds and closet indexers to buy CVNA, adding structural demand.
- It often reduces volatility over time, as the shareholder base becomes more institutional and benchmark‑driven.
Given Carvana’s current market cap and trading volume, the idea is no longer far‑fetched.
Heavy institutional flows, both in and out
MarketBeat’s live CVNA news feed today reads like a roll‑call of institutional investors: [19]
- New or increased positions:
- Edgestream Partners L.P. purchased 12,370 shares.
- 1832 Asset Management L.P. disclosed a new $86.6 million stake.
- Sands Capital Management reported holdings of about $304 million in CVNA.
- Other recent filings show positions from Arrowstreet Capital, OMERS, Pinkerton Wealth and more.
- Reductions:
- XTX Topco Ltd cut its position by roughly 89% in the second quarter, according to a filing summarized today. [20]
Across the broader shareholder base, MarketBeat estimates institutional investors own about 57% of Carvana’s shares, while Simply Wall St. – which uses a different methodology – puts institutional ownership above 90% of the float. [21]
The takeaway: professional money is heavily involved, but not in one direction. Some funds are aggressively adding; others are taking profits after the huge run‑up.
Insider selling at $380–$400
Offsetting bullish analyst calls, insider selling has picked up around current price levels:
- CEO Ernie Garcia, COO Benjamin Huston, CFO Mark Jenkins and other senior executives have disclosed multiple stock sales in late September and early October in the $380–$400 price range. [22]
- VP of Accounting Stephen Palmer sold 1,000 shares at roughly $372–$390, according to MarketBeat and insider‑trading trackers. [23]
Insiders sell for many reasons (taxes, diversification, options exercises), but the scale and timing of these sales are being used by skeptics as evidence that management sees the current valuation as rich.
MarketBeat’s “Why Is Carvana Up Today?” piece explicitly lists concentrated insider selling as a negative offset to the day’s bullish news flow. [24]
Wall Street forecasts: consensus bullish, but not unanimously
Rating and price‑target snapshot
Across major data providers, Carvana currently enjoys a broadly bullish analyst consensus:
- MarketBeat: average rating “Moderate Buy”, with an average 12‑month price target around $422 (range ~$275–$500). [25]
- StockAnalysis.com: similar picture, with an average target near $410–$415 and roughly 28 covering analysts. [26]
- WallStreetZen: notes 18 analysts with a consensus “Strong Buy”, reflecting the skew toward positive ratings. [27]
From a current price near $399, these averages imply low‑to‑mid‑single‑digit percentage upside, while the most bullish targets (around $490–$500) imply 20–25%+ upside if the growth story continues. [28]
Recent high‑profile calls include:
- UBS: “Strong‑Buy” with a $450 target, emphasizing Carvana as a “true disruptor” and share gainer in a still‑nascent online used‑car market. [29]
- Wedbush: upgrade to “Outperform” and target raised to $400, framing recent pullbacks as opportunities and calling Carvana a potential “new used‑car king.” [30]
- Citigroup:Strong Buy with a target trimmed from $490 to $445, still implying double‑digit upside. [31]
A Zacks‑authored piece on Nasdaq summed up the Street stance this week as “Wall Street analysts look bullish on Carvana”, while cautioning that investors should treat brokerage recommendations as one input rather than gospel. [32]
Revenue and EPS expectations
Analyst models point to very rapid fundamental growth:
- Revenue 2024 → 2025: projected to rise from about $13.7B to $20.3B, a gain of roughly 49%.
- Revenue 2025 → 2026: expected to grow another 27% to about $25.8B. [33]
- EPS 2024 → 2025: forecast to jump from $1.59 to $5.29 (+233%).
- EPS 2026: projected around $7.20, another 36% increase. [34]
Those numbers help explain Carvana’s lofty valuation multiples:
- StockAnalysis shows a forward P/E in the mid‑50s to mid‑70s, depending on the exact year and GAAP vs non‑GAAP assumptions. [35]
- AInvest’s December 3 analysis pegs Carvana’s P/E around 25.3x vs an industry average near 18.9x based on its own model, highlighting a clear valuation premium even under more generous earnings assumptions. [36]
- The fresh bear thesis summarized by InsiderMonkey cites even higher trailing and forward P/E ratios (roughly 85x and 57x) based on earlier prices, arguing that much of the turnaround is already priced in. [37]
In short: Carvana is priced for continued strong growth and sustained profitability. If those assumptions hold, bulls argue, today’s multiples could be justified; if they falter, the downside could be severe.
Quant and algorithmic price forecasts: caution lights flashing
Beyond human analysts, several algorithmic and technical‑model platforms publish CVNA forecasts – and they are far more cautious than UBS or Wedbush.
Short‑term technical view (StockInvest.us)
StockInvest.us, which uses trend and volatility indicators, currently labels Carvana as a “buy candidate” in the short term, despite noting that the share price is in a falling trend on some timeframes. [38]
For December 4, its model expected:
- Fair opening price: about $392.18
- Intraday range: roughly $384.83–$405.17, implying a potential ±5.3% move in either direction
- A recommended stop‑loss near $379, acknowledging the stock’s high daily volatility. [39]
Overall, the platform remains constructive in the very short term but repeatedly stresses that CVNA is “high risk” due to its wide daily swings.
Long‑term algorithmic view (StockScan, CoinCodex and others)
StockScan’s long‑horizon model is far more skeptical. Using the recent price around $398–$399 as a base, it projects: [40]
- 2026 average price:$302.59, about 24% below today
- 2027 average:$189.94, roughly 50%+ lower
- 2028 average: around $57, implying an ~85% drawdown
- 2030 average: roughly $114, still ~70% below current levels
Another compilation from TS2 Tech highlights CoinCodex’s model, which:
- Sees a slight 30‑day downside (~1%),
- Projects a modest 1‑year decline (~5%),
- But publishes a 2030 scenario with a single‑digit price, effectively implying a collapse over longer horizons. TechStock²
Even these sites caution that such long‑term outputs are model artifacts, not investment advice – but they are a useful reminder that mean‑reversion‑based algorithms view CVNA’s current price as extreme.
The bull case: a “true disruptor” with real profits
Supporters of Carvana see the stock as one of the most compelling growth stories in consumer internet and auto retail:
- Category‑defining online platform
UBS calls Carvana a “true disruptor and share gainer in a highly fragmented market,” with a best‑in‑class e‑commerce platform that often delivers both better prices and better customer experience than traditional dealers. [41] - Explosive growth with rising margins
The Q3 2025 report showed 44% unit growth, 55% revenue growth and double‑digit adjusted EBITDA margins, with management guiding to more than $2 billion in Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 – a remarkable shift versus deep losses just a couple of years ago. [42] - Large runway for online penetration
Only about 2% of used‑car sales are completed fully online today. UBS and others believe that as consumers get more comfortable buying cars via the web, Carvana’s share could double or more over the next decade, especially if it reaches its 3‑million‑units‑per‑year goal mentioned in bullish research and media coverage. [43] - Balance‑sheet repair and deleveraging
AInvest and other recent analyses highlight Carvana’s deleveraging efforts since 2023, including debt exchanges and improved cash generation, arguing that the company is gradually moving from “survival mode” to sustainable growth mode. [44] - High institutional and potential index demand
With hundreds of institutional buyers and multi‑hundred‑million‑dollar positions disclosed by major funds – plus talk of potential S&P 500 inclusion – bulls see a structural buyer base forming underneath the stock. [45] - Support from influential commentators
Jim Cramer’s recent segment, where he urged investors to “stick with Carvana” and described the company as having staged a dramatic turnaround, adds fuel to the momentum narrative, at least among retail traders and TV‑watching investors. [46]
From this vantage point, Carvana is an online retail winner with years of growth ahead, and the main risk is not whether it survives, but how much of the auto market it can capture and how profitable that growth will be.
The bear case: earnings quality, leverage and “priced‑for‑perfection” risk
The new bear thesis published today by InsiderMonkey and syndicated via Yahoo Finance crystallizes many of the concerns that skeptics have voiced for months. [47]
Key bearish arguments from that note and other recent negative coverage:
- Quality of earnings
The bear case argues that a large share of Carvana’s reported net income comes from gains related to auto‑loan sales and fair‑value adjustments, not from core retail operations. If loan performance deteriorates or securitization markets cool, that profit stream could shrink quickly. [48] - High leverage and subprime exposure
- Carvana still carries multi‑billion‑dollar debt levels, even after recent exchanges and repayments. [49]
- A widely shared MarketBeat/24‑7 Wall St. piece, summarized in TS2’s December 1 update, cites Hindenburg Research claims that Carvana has very high approval rates, deep subprime loan exposure and relies heavily on selling those loans to third parties, raising concerns about performance in a weaker credit cycle. TechStock²+1
- Valuation stretch
Between InsiderMonkey’s estimate of 85x trailing and 57x forward earnings, AInvest’s P/E of 25x vs 18.9x for peers, and StockScan’s models that assume a sharp long‑term re‑rating, the common thread is that Carvana trades at a hefty premium to both traditional dealers and many internet peers. [50] - Macro and credit‑cycle risk
Bears worry that rising auto delinquencies, potential recessions, or a sustained high‑rate environment could hit both Carvana’s customers and its funding channels simultaneously, compressing margins and raising funding costs. - Insider selling and governance questions
The cluster of insider sales around the current price zone – including large trades by the CEO, CFO and COO – is seen as a signal that management may view the share price as rich, or at least as an opportunity to de‑risk personally. [51] - Extreme volatility and downside scenarios from models
Algorithmic forecasts that show 60–80% downside over the next 3–5 years may or may not be realistic, but they highlight just how vulnerable the stock could be if growth disappoints or multiples compress back toward sector norms. [52]
From the bearish perspective, Carvana is a leveraged, cyclical, highly valued lender‑retailer hybrid whose current profitability may be both cyclical and fragile. In this view, the stock’s massive run means the margin for error is thin.
Is Carvana stock a buy after December 4’s news?
Whether CVNA is attractive here depends heavily on your risk tolerance, time horizon and conviction about a few key questions:
- Can Carvana sustain double‑digit margins while growing units 20–30%+ per year?
If yes, the current valuation might be justified – or even conservative. If no, today’s multiples could unwind quickly. [53] - Will credit markets stay open and reasonably priced?
The model relies on securitizing large volumes of auto loans. A serious credit shock could hurt earnings and force the company to slow growth or raise expensive capital. TechStock²+1 - How much online share can Carvana realistically win?
Bulls see a path to 3 million units annually and 4–8% market share over time. Bears question whether competition from CarMax, traditional dealers and entrants like Amazon Autos will cap Carvana’s share and pricing power. [54] - Does heavy institutional ownership help or hurt?
Strong institutional support can act as a vote of confidence, but it can also amplify moves if a crowded trade starts to unwind. [55] - How do you personally handle volatility?
With frequent 5%+ daily swings, Carvana is not a “sleep‑well‑at‑night” stock. Short squeezes and momentum spikes can make both gains and losses extreme.
Practical takeaways for investors
If you’re considering CVNA after today’s headlines, it may help to:
- Separate the story from the price.
The business turnaround is real – Q3 numbers and guidance show that. The question is whether that turnaround is worth 50–80x earnings and a triple‑digit percentage gain in under a year. [56] - Listen to both UBS and the bears.
UBS and other bullish analysts make a strong case for a structurally advantaged e‑commerce leader in a huge market. The InsiderMonkey/24‑7 Wall St. critique forces you to ask whether the quality of earnings and leverage profile justify today’s valuation. [57] - Treat algorithmic forecasts as guardrails, not destiny.
Models from StockInvest, StockScan and CoinCodex can highlight risk ranges and volatility, but their multi‑year price targets are, at best, rough scenarios, not precise roadmaps. [58] - Size positions accordingly.
Given the volatility and polarizing views, many investors treat CVNA as a high‑beta satellite position, not a core holding.
Important note
This article is for information and commentary only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. stockinvest.us, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. markets.financialcontent.com, 5. stockinvest.us, 6. www.stocktitan.net, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. investors.carvana.com, 12. investors.carvana.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. news.dealershipguy.com, 17. news.dealershipguy.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.secform4.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. www.wallstreetzen.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. stocksguide.com, 31. stockanalysis.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.ainvest.com, 37. www.insidermonkey.com, 38. stockinvest.us, 39. stockinvest.us, 40. stockscan.io, 41. www.marketwatch.com, 42. investors.carvana.com, 43. www.marketwatch.com, 44. www.ainvest.com, 45. www.marketbeat.com, 46. www.tradingview.com, 47. www.insidermonkey.com, 48. www.insidermonkey.com, 49. investors.carvana.com, 50. www.insidermonkey.com, 51. www.secform4.com, 52. stockscan.io, 53. investors.carvana.com, 54. www.marketwatch.com, 55. www.marketbeat.com, 56. investors.carvana.com, 57. www.marketwatch.com, 58. stockinvest.us
