Carvana (CVNA) Stock Today, December 2 2025: Price, Q3 2025 Earnings, Analyst Ratings and 2026 Forecast

Updated: December 2, 2025

Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) remains one of the most hotly debated stocks on Wall Street. After a multi‑year turnaround from near‑collapse, the online used‑car retailer now combines rapid growth, real profitability – and a valuation that divides bulls and bears.

As of Tuesday, December 2, 2025, Carvana stock closed at $382.18, up about 1.8% on the day, after trading roughly between $373 and $393 on volume just under 2.9 million shares. ^[1]

Following a steep surge over the past week, CVNA is back near its 52‑week highs. The shares have gained roughly 80–90% in 2025, on top of nearly quadrupling in 2024, according to multiple market data providers. ^[2]

Over a longer horizon the move is even more extreme: Carvana has delivered about a 4,700% total return over the last three years, the highest among large‑cap U.S. stocks between December 2022 and December 2025, according to StatMuse. ^[3] At today’s price, the company’s market capitalization stands around $84 billion, firmly in large‑cap territory. ^[4]

Against that backdrop, fresh Q3 2025 earnings, new analyst coverage, and high‑profile television endorsements are shaping the latest narrative around CVNA. Here’s a detailed look at the current state of the stock, the underlying business, and what Wall Street expects as 2026 approaches.

Carvana stock price today and recent momentum

Market data from NYSE and historical price providers show Carvana: ^[5]

Close (Dec 2, 2025): $382.18
Day change: +1.84%
Intraday range: roughly $373 – $393
Volume: ~2.9 million shares

Looking back over the last several sessions, CVNA has rallied from about $331 at the close on November 24 to $382.18 today – an advance of roughly 15% in just over a week. ^[6]

Volatility remains elevated. One recent market commentary notes that Carvana has logged dozens of daily moves greater than 5% over the past year, underlining how sensitive the stock is to news, macro headlines and positioning. ^[7]

That extreme volatility cuts both ways: it has amplified gains for early dip‑buyers after the 2022–2023 meltdown, but also means new investors can see large swings in a short time.

Record Q3 2025 earnings: growth and profit, but a mixed reaction

Carvana’s latest quarterly results, released on October 29, 2025, marked another milestone in its turnaround – though the market’s immediate reaction was surprisingly negative.

Headline numbers

According to the company’s earnings release and accompanying coverage: ^[8]

Revenue: about $5.65 billion, up roughly 55% year‑over‑year (vs. ~US$5.1 billion expected by Wall Street).
Retail units sold:155,941, up about 44% year‑over‑year, an all‑time quarterly record.
Net income: around $263 million, compared with roughly $148 million a year earlier.
Net margin: ~4.7%.
GAAP operating margin: ~9.8%.
Adjusted EBITDA: about $637 million, with an 11.3% margin.
EPS: roughly $1.03 (GAAP) and $1.50 adjusted, versus consensus expectations near $1.30 per share.

In other words, Carvana produced record sales, record units and strong profitability, while also beating Street estimates on both revenue and earnings.

The company guided for Q4 2025 vehicle sales of at least 150,000 units and reaffirmed a full‑year adjusted EBITDA outlook of roughly $2.0–$2.2 billion, underscoring management’s confidence that profitability can be sustained into 2026. ^[9]

Why did the stock initially fall?

Despite the beats, Carvana’s stock fell roughly 8% in after‑hours trading on the day of the release. Several factors appear to have weighed on sentiment: ^[10]

Margin worries: Adjusted EBITDA margin slipped modestly year‑over‑year (to about 11.3% from ~11.7%), raising questions about how much further profitability can expand.
Net income shortfall vs. some estimates: While profit grew strongly, net income came in below the most optimistic analyst forecasts cited in some reports.
Short‑seller pressure: The stock was under a renewed spotlight from notable short seller Jim Chanos, who has argued that Carvana’s business model could prove vulnerable if economic conditions worsen or if used‑car credit performance deteriorates.

However, the pullback proved temporary. As the market digested the results and new bullish analyst reports arrived, CVNA recovered and pushed to new highs.

Q2 2025 set the stage

Q3’s performance built on a strong Q2 2025. In that quarter, Carvana reported revenue of about $4.84 billion, up 41.9% year‑over‑year, with 143,280 retail units sold and a major upside surprise on EBITDA. Shares jumped about 16.6% immediately after the Q2 release. ^[11]

Together, the last two quarters solidified the perception that Carvana is not just cutting costs but growing rapidly at scale while generating consistent profit.

From near‑bankruptcy to massive rebound – and a complex debt story

Carvana’s current share price makes it easy to forget how precarious its situation looked just a couple of years ago.

The 2023–2024 debt restructuring

Following a brutal 2022 bear market in which CVNA fell more than 90%, Carvana spent much of 2023 renegotiating its capital structure. In July 2023, the company announced a transaction support agreement with noteholders representing over 90% of its senior unsecured notes. ^[12]

Key features of that restructuring, according to company disclosures, included: ^[13]

Eliminating more than 83% of 2025 and 2027 unsecured note maturities, significantly reducing near‑term refinancing risk.
Cutting annual cash interest expense by over $430–$456 million for the following two years.
Reducing total debt outstanding by over $1.2–$1.3 billion.
Exchanging roughly $5.5 billion of old notes for new secured notes due mostly in 2028 and beyond, secured by Carvana and ADESA assets.

The transaction was notable enough to earn recognition in industry awards as a landmark restructuring deal, with analysts noting that the company had been facing serious solvency risks without a fix. ^[14]

In effect, the exchange bought Carvana time to execute its turnaround plan by lowering interest costs and pushing out maturities – exactly what the subsequent profit surge has tried to capitalize on.

Funding and credit performance

Despite these moves, Carvana remains heavily reliant on asset‑backed securities (ABS) funding via its Carvana Auto Receivables Trust (CART) programs.

A November 2025 presale report for Carvana Auto Receivables Trust 2025‑P4 notes that 31‑plus‑day delinquencies stood at about 2.86% as of September 30, 2025, an improvement from 3.16% a year earlier, with net charge‑offs also monitored closely. ^[15]

At the same time, broader industry commentary stresses that subprime auto loan delinquencies are at or near record highs, and could remain elevated into 2026 amid high interest rates, inflation and a softer job market. ^[16]

This backdrop explains why some analysts and bloggers describe Carvana as a high‑beta play on the health of the used‑car credit cycle: if delinquencies spike or ABS markets seize up, the company’s funding costs could rise sharply.

Macro and industry context: tariffs, used‑car demand and competition

Carvana’s rebound has not happened in isolation.

A recent Reuters report on Q3 2025 results highlights that tariffs on new cars have pushed up prices for new vehicles, nudging more consumers into the used‑car market – a trend that benefits e‑commerce players like Carvana. ^[17]

At the same time, Carvana faces increasing competition:

Traditional used‑car giant CarMax has struggled, with analysts noting weak share performance relative to Carvana. ^[18]
Amazon Autos, launched in December 2024, has begun selling vehicles online through partnerships with brands such as Hyundai, Hertz and Ford, giving consumers another digital alternative. ^[19]

This mix of tailwinds (strong used‑car demand, consumer comfort with buying vehicles online) and headwinds (competition and credit risk) makes the Carvana story particularly sensitive to execution.

What Wall Street analysts are saying now

Consensus ratings and price targets

Data compiled by Public.com shows that, as of December 2, 2025: ^[20]

20 analysts cover Carvana.
30% rate the stock “Strong Buy”, 50% “Buy”, and 20% “Hold”.
0% currently rate it “Sell” or “Strong Sell”.
The consensus rating is “Buy.”
The average 12‑month price target sits around $415 per share.

That average target is modestly above today’s price, implying single‑digit percentage upside from current levels – though individual targets vary widely.

Other aggregators similarly describe Carvana’s overall rating as “Moderate Buy,” with an average target in the low‑to‑mid‑$400s based on recent filings and earnings reactions. ^[21]

High‑profile banks: UBS, Wedbush, Needham, Barclays, Jefferies

Several notable research calls over the past few weeks have helped power CVNA’s latest leg higher:

UBS initiated coverage on December 1, 2025 with a “Buy” rating and a $450 price target, calling Carvana a “true disruptor” in used‑car retail. UBS estimates Carvana currently has about 1.5% of total U.S. used‑vehicle sales and roughly 3% of the retail segment, and forecasts this could rise to around 4% by 2030 and 8% within the next decade as online penetration increases. ^[22]
Wedbush upgraded the stock from “Neutral” to “Outperform” on November 24, 2025, raising its price target from $380 to $400. Its analysts dubbed Carvana the potential “new used car king” and predicted the company could overtake CarMax in used‑car unit sales as early as Q4 2026, six months earlier than previously forecast. ^[23]
Needham reiterated a “Buy” rating in mid‑November with a $500 price target, reflecting a more aggressive view on long‑term growth and margin expansion. ^[24]
Barclays initiated coverage in November as well, with an “Overweight” rating and a $390 target, emphasizing structural shifts toward online vehicle sales. ^[25]
Jefferies maintained its “Buy” rating and a $475 price target, citing roughly 41% year‑over‑year growth in retail units for October and ongoing execution on profitability. ^[26]

Fresh sentiment: Zacks and Jim Cramer

On December 2, 2025, Zacks Investment Research published a note titled “Wall Street Analysts Look Bullish on Carvana (CVNA): Should You Buy?” describing the stock as part of a cohort of companies with favorable earnings estimate revisions and positive analyst sentiment. ^[27]

Meanwhile, TV personality and investor Jim Cramer highlighted Carvana on his show, calling it “one of his favourite companies heading into 2026,” according to coverage from Invezz and StockAnalysis. ^[28]

These endorsements add to the bullish narrative, although they don’t change the underlying fundamentals or risks.

The bull case for Carvana stock

Supporters of Carvana highlight several key arguments, many of which are echoed across recent research notes and bullish columns: ^[29]

Profitable hypergrowth at scale
- Revenue is growing at 40–55% year‑over‑year, with three consecutive quarters of strong top‑line expansion.
- Carvana is generating hundreds of millions of dollars in quarterly adjusted EBITDA and consistent net income, a sharp reversal from deep losses in 2022–2023.
Structural shift to online used‑car buying
- Only a small fraction of used‑car sales in the U.S. take place fully online today, leaving significant room for digital adoption.
- Carvana’s fully online buying experience, nationwide inventory and “vending machine” pickup model differentiate it from traditional dealers.
Market share upside
- With around 1.5% share of total used‑vehicle sales and ~3% of retail, Carvana is still a small slice of a very large market.
- UBS and Wedbush see room for share to double or triple over the next decade if the company continues to out‑execute rivals.
Tailwinds from high new‑car prices
- Tariffs and elevated prices on new vehicles have driven consumers into the used market, supporting volumes and pricing for companies like Carvana.
Balance‑sheet progress and extended runway
- The 2023 debt exchange significantly reduced near‑term maturities and interest expense, giving Carvana more time to convert growth into sustained free cash flow.
Exceptional stock performance and potential index inclusion
- With multi‑thousand‑percent returns over the last three years, Carvana has been one of the best‑performing U.S. large caps, prompting speculation in some commentary that it could eventually qualify for inclusion in major indices if profitability proves durable. ^[30]

For bullish investors, Carvana is a rare case of a disruptive consumer internet company that has survived a near‑death experience, restructured its balance sheet, and emerged with both rapid growth and real profits.

The bear case: leverage, credit risk, valuation and competition

Skeptics largely agree that Carvana’s operational turnaround is impressive – but argue that the stock price already discounts a very optimistic future.

Key concerns raised in bearish analyses include: ^[31]

High leverage and reliance on ABS funding
- Even after the 2023 exchange, Carvana still carries substantial debt and depends heavily on securitizing auto loans to fund growth.
- If ABS markets tighten or investors demand higher yields, the company’s cost of capital could rise sharply.
Credit‑cycle risk
- Several analyses note record‑high subprime auto delinquencies and warn that a weaker economy in 2026 could hurt both consumers and lenders.
- Carvana’s own securitized pools currently show manageable delinquencies, but critics argue this could change quickly in a downturn.
Rich valuation
- One widely cited breakdown of analyst views notes that bears see Carvana trading at roughly 22 times 2027 EPS estimates, a premium to traditional dealers and many internet peers. ^[32]
- After a move of several thousand percent off the lows, any disappointment in growth or margins could trigger sharp corrections.
Extr eme volatility
- The stock’s history of large daily swings means investors face high short‑term risk; this volatility has been amplified by short covering, options activity and momentum trading. ^[33]
Intensifying competition
- The entrance of Amazon Autos and ongoing competition from CarMax and other players raise questions about how much of the market Carvana can realistically win. ^[34]
Short‑seller skepticism
- Short sellers like Jim Chanos have maintained positions in the stock, arguing that current margins may not be sustainable if credit conditions deteriorate, used‑car prices normalize or growth slows. ^[35]

From this perspective, Carvana is a high‑beta bet on both continued flawless execution and a reasonably benign credit environment – a combination that may or may not persist.

Institutional flows: HSBC and hedge fund interest

Recent filings and news show continued institutional engagement with CVNA: ^[36]

HSBC Holdings PLC disclosed buying 4,906 shares of Carvana, a relatively small but notable incremental position for a global bank’s investment arm as of December 2, 2025.
A separate MarketBeat summary notes that Carvana is the sixth‑largest position at North Peak Capital Management, a hedge fund that appears to be betting on continued upside, even as it acknowledges the company’s Q3 EPS miss relative to some consensus estimates.

While these positions are modest relative to Carvana’s overall float, they underscore that sophisticated investors are actively taking both sides of the trade.

Key things to watch for Carvana stock heading into 2026

Given the backdrop above, several metrics and catalysts are likely to drive CVNA’s performance over the next 12–18 months:

Q4 2025 and 2026 guidance
- Can Carvana hit or exceed its target of 150,000+ vehicles sold in Q4 while holding or expanding margins? ^[37]
Adjusted EBITDA and free‑cash‑flow trajectory
- Investors will watch whether adjusted EBITDA can stay near the high end of the $2.0–$2.2 billion annual target range and translate into durable free cash flow. ^[38]
ABS performance and credit metrics
- Future reports on Carvana’s securitizations (e.g., delinquency and net charge‑off trends) will be critical indicators of underlying credit risk. ^[39]
Macroeconomic and policy backdrop
- Changes in interest rates, employment and tariffs on new vehicles could either bolster or erode the tailwinds currently supporting used‑car demand. ^[40]
Competitive moves
- The rollout pace of Amazon Autos, strategic responses from CarMax and other dealers, and any partnerships or acquisitions by Carvana itself will influence its market‑share trajectory. ^[41]
Potential index inclusion and capital‑markets activity
- With a market cap above $80 billion and improving profitability, some commentators have speculated that Carvana could eventually be considered for major index rebalancings, though there is no guarantee. New equity or debt offerings could also reshape the risk‑reward profile. ^[42]

Bottom line: a high‑conviction battleground stock

As of December 2, 2025, Carvana sits at the intersection of powerful themes:

A digitally native model disrupting an enormous traditional industry.
A remarkable financial turnaround, with record revenue, units and profits.
A dramatic share‑price recovery that has left the stock richly valued and highly volatile.
A still‑leveraged balance sheet exposed to the ups and downs of the credit cycle.

Most Wall Street analysts remain bullish, with an overall “Buy” consensus and average price targets in the low‑to‑mid‑$400s. ^[43] Yet a vocal minority of investors argues the current valuation leaves little margin for error, especially if credit conditions or consumer demand weaken.

For anyone following CVNA, the story into 2026 will hinge on whether Carvana can continue to grow fast, stay profitable, manage its debt and navigate credit risks – all while fending off heavyweight competitors.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.