Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) finished the Christmas Eve session modestly higher and traded nearly flat in after-hours, a fitting setup for a stock that has been one of 2025’s most talked-about consumer names. Shares closed at $441.57 on Dec. 24, up just under 1%, and were hovering around $441.5 in extended-hours quotes later in the day. [1]
One nuance matters more than usual: Dec. 24 was a scheduled early-close session, and U.S. markets are closed on Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day). That means the “tomorrow” most investors care about is the next trading day, Friday, Dec. 26, when major exchanges are expected to operate on a normal schedule. [2]
Below is what happened after the bell today—and the key headlines, forecasts, and risks investors are weighing before the market reopens.
Carvana stock after the bell: the latest read-through from Christmas Eve trading
Despite the shortened session, CVNA still put up a clean, easy-to-read tape:
- Close (Dec. 24): $441.57
- After-hours (late quotes): ~$441.5 (little changed) [3]
- Day’s range: roughly $436.57 to $443.50 [4]
What stands out is less the size of the move and more the context: holiday liquidity can exaggerate small flows. For a high-volatility, high-beta stock like Carvana, that’s a recipe for bigger gaps when normal volume returns. [5]
The calendar matters: what “tomorrow” means for CVNA traders this week
If you’re building a “before the open” checklist, start with the trading schedule:
- Wednesday, Dec. 24: markets open, early close as scheduled [6]
- Thursday, Dec. 25:U.S. markets closed for Christmas [7]
- Friday, Dec. 26: exchanges expected to run a full trading day [8]
That schedule also drew extra attention this year after a federal-government closure directive for Dec. 24 and Dec. 26—but major exchanges said they would stick to their published trading calendar. [9]
Why Carvana remains a headline stock going into the next session
1) The S&P 500 effect is still fresh—and still debated
Carvana’s addition to the S&P 500 (effective before market open on Dec. 22, 2025) cemented one of the market’s most dramatic turnarounds and has been a key narrative driver all month. [10]
The bullish argument: inclusion can broaden ownership and mechanically pull in passive/index-linked demand. [11]
The skeptical argument: once the “index inclusion” trade is absorbed, the stock can revert to trading on fundamentals and valuation—especially after a huge run. [12]
2) The broader market backdrop is “risk-on,” which tends to favor high-beta names
U.S. stocks finished the day mixed-to-higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching record territory in holiday-thinned trading, according to major market coverage. That kind of backdrop typically supports momentum and high-volatility equities—Carvana included. [13]
Today’s CVNA news and analysis: what published on Dec. 24
Even on a quiet holiday news cycle, a few themes dominated Carvana coverage today:
A) “From near-bankruptcy to the S&P 500” recap—and what analysts think now
A widely shared explainer today revisited Carvana’s turnaround arc and highlighted the current Wall Street consensus as still broadly constructive. That same coverage pointed to an average price target around the mid-$460s and a “Strong Buy” style consensus framing (based on the distribution of ratings tracked by the platform). [14]
Why it matters for tomorrow: with CVNA around $441, the “average target” story can cut both ways—either “there’s still upside” or “the stock is already close to where consensus thinks it belongs,” depending on which dataset you follow (more on that below).
B) Options traders leaned defensive, even as shares were up
A notable Dec. 24 options-market read flagged “mixed” sentiment: puts led calls, and implied volatility sat in a relatively low historical bucket—paired with a suggested expected daily move in the low-teens (dollars). [15]
Key takeaway: the options market wasn’t screaming “panic,” but positioning leaned more cautious than the price action alone might imply—especially in a thin holiday session.
C) Institutional ownership headlines (13F-style coverage) continued to trickle in
MarketBeat published multiple “instant alert” style items today focused on institutional position changes and summarized the prevailing analyst target landscape. [16]
These pieces are rarely single-catalyst events, but they contribute to the day-to-day narrative: Carvana is no longer a fringe story—it’s broadly owned, heavily covered, and widely traded.
D) No new Carvana investor-relations press release dated Dec. 24
On Carvana’s own investor-relations “News Releases” page, the most recent items listed are dated Dec. 19 and Dec. 18, with no new release dated Dec. 24. [17]
That matters because it increases the odds that Friday’s action is driven more by market positioning, options flows, and macro tone than by a fresh company headline.
Forecasts heading into the next open: price targets are clustered, but the range is wide
Here’s the cleanest way to frame “forecasts” for CVNA right now:
The consensus is relatively close to the stock price
One widely cited tracker shows an average 12-month target around $446—only about ~1% above where CVNA finished today. [18]
If that’s the anchor you use, it suggests the stock is roughly fairly valued versus consensus—at least on a simple target basis.
But the dispersion is huge (translation: analysts disagree on what “normal” looks like)
The same dataset shows a high target as high as $550 and a low target down in the $200s. [19]
TradingView’s aggregation similarly frames a wide spread (with a max estimate of $550 and a min estimate of $330). [20]
What this means in practice: headline consensus can look calm, while real underlying disagreement is high—which often translates into outsized reactions around earnings, guidance, and macro surprises.
Options and “implied move” into the next session: what the derivatives market suggests
For traders focused on what could happen between now and the next open, the most actionable read is often the implied move.
One options-focused estimate for the next expiration window pegged the expected move at roughly ±$17.90 (about ±4%), implying a fairly wide band around spot into the next session. [21]
Separately, the Dec. 24 options commentary also described an expected one-day move of about $12.80 (roughly ~3% of spot) alongside a put-heavy tilt. [22]
Big picture: even after a relatively quiet close, the derivatives market is not pricing CVNA like a sleepy large-cap.
Fundamentals to keep in mind before markets reopen
Carvana’s next big narrative test will ultimately be fundamentals, not flows. The most recent quarter on record remains a central reference point for both bulls and bears:
- Q3 2025 retail units: 155,941 (up 44% YoY) [23]
- Q3 2025 revenue:$5.647B (up 55% YoY) [24]
- Q3 2025 net income:$263M [25]
- Q4 outlook: retail units above 150,000; full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of the prior $2.0–$2.2B range (company guidance at the time) [26]
That mix—rapid unit growth plus profitability—explains why Carvana’s story has migrated from “survival” to “valuation debate.”
Key levels and reference points investors are watching
Without turning this into a chart lesson, there are a few widely watched markers for Friday’s session:
- Recent peak: CVNA’s all-time high is listed around $485.33 (Dec. 12). Today’s close is about 9% below that level. [27]
- Near-term support zone: the low-$420s showed up recently in the week’s trading range. [28]
- Round-number magnets: $450 and $500 remain psychologically important, especially with multiple targets clustered near/above those levels. [29]
What to know before the next market open: a practical CVNA checklist
Going into Friday, Dec. 26, here’s what’s most likely to matter for CVNA specifically:
- Expect thinner liquidity than a normal Friday
Even though Dec. 26 is scheduled as a full session, the holiday week often produces uneven participation—which can amplify volatility in stocks like CVNA. [30] - Watch options positioning for directional clues
Today’s read showed puts leading calls and low-ish implied volatility versus history, which can shift quickly if the stock gaps at the open. [31] - Know where the Street’s targets cluster
If you’re looking for where “valuation debates” might intensify, the mid-$440s to mid-$460s region is where some consensus trackers place their average targets—while the upside case points to ~$500–$550. [32] - Keep the S&P 500 narrative in perspective
S&P 500 inclusion is a powerful headline catalyst—but it can fade as a driver once the rebalancing and “index story” are fully absorbed. [33] - Stay alert for competition and industry signals
Carvana’s growth story exists in a fast-changing auto retail landscape, including intensifying competition and new entrants. [34]
Bottom line for Dec. 24 after-hours
Carvana stock ended the shortened Christmas Eve session up about 1% and traded essentially flat after hours—but the bigger story is that CVNA remains a high-volatility, narrative-driven stock where positioning (and holiday liquidity) can matter as much as headlines on any given day. [35]
With U.S. markets closed on Dec. 25 and the next regular session on Dec. 26, investors heading into the next open should focus on the options-implied move, the wide dispersion in analyst targets, and whether the post–S&P 500 “afterglow” continues to support dips. [36]
References
1. www.google.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.google.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. apnews.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.investopedia.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. investors.carvana.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. optioncharts.io, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. investors.carvana.com, 24. investors.carvana.com, 25. investors.carvana.com, 26. investors.carvana.com, 27. www.tradingview.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.barrons.com, 34. www.marketwatch.com, 35. www.google.com, 36. www.reuters.com
