November 29, 2025 – Data as of U.S. market close on Friday, November 28, 2025
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) heads into the final month of 2025 as one of the market’s wildest comeback stories: the stock closed around $374.50 on Friday, up nearly 5% on the day and not far from its early‑October record high just under $400. [1]
Behind that move is a dense mix of bullish analyst calls, booming earnings, new competitive pressure from Amazon’s used‑car push, and mounting scrutiny of Carvana’s auto‑lending practices. The result is a stock that has surged roughly 80% year‑to‑date while remaining one of the most hotly debated names in the U.S. market. [2]
Key developments for Carvana stock as of November 29, 2025
- Share price: CVNA closed near $374.50 on November 28, up almost 5% on the day and within striking distance of its all‑time high around $395 set on October 1. [3]
- Fundamentals: Q3 2025 delivered record revenue, profits, and unit sales, including 155,941 retail units sold, $5.65 billion in revenue, and $263 million in net income. [4]
- Analysts: Wedbush upgraded Carvana to “Outperform” with a $400 target, dubbing it the “new used car king”; Bank of America and Barclays reaffirmed or maintained Buy ratings with targets in the high‑$300s. [5]
- Competition:Amazon Autos and Ford launched a certified used‑car partnership, pushing Amazon deeper into territory historically dominated by Carvana and CarMax. [6]
- Risk spotlight: A widely circulated piece and an investigative report linked to Hindenburg Research argue Carvana’s aggressive lending – including very high approval rates and large exposure to non‑prime borrowers – could be fueling an “auto lending crisis.” [7]
- Short interest & volatility: Short sellers now control about 6.3% of the float, down sharply from more than 50% at the 2022 lows, but short interest rose again in November. [8]
- Insiders: Chief Brand Officer Ryan S. Keeton sold 10,000 shares for roughly $3.5 million on November 28, part of a broader trend of net insider selling this quarter. [9]
Stock price: rally resumes after Amazon shock
Friday’s bounce capped a strong week for Carvana. According to market data, CVNA ended November 28 trading around $374.50, gaining nearly 5% on the session and outperforming traditional used‑car peers such as CarMax. [10]
Earlier in November, the share price wobbled when Ford and Amazon announced a partnership that lets buyers in Los Angeles, Seattle, and Dallas shop for, finance, and purchase certified pre‑owned Fords on Amazon Autos. On the day of the announcement, Carvana shares fell about 3% intraday, while CarMax also sold off. [11]
Despite that shock, the broader trend remains unmistakably up. Several independent analyses estimate Carvana’s share price is up roughly 79% year‑to‑date and about 40% over the past 12 months. [12] From the stock’s 2022 low under $4, a 10,000%+ rebound at one point dealt short sellers more than $7.4 billion in mark‑to‑market losses, making Carvana one of the most dramatic recoveries in recent market history. [13]
Record Q3 2025: revenue, units and profits all hit new highs
The fundamental backdrop for this rally is Carvana’s strongest quarter on record.
In its Q3 2025 earnings release, the company reported: [14]
- Retail units sold: 155,941, up 44% year‑over‑year
- Revenue: $5.647 billion, up 55% year‑over‑year
- Net income: $263 million, net margin 4.7%
- Adjusted EBITDA: $637 million, margin 11.3%
- GAAP operating income: $552 million, margin 9.8%
Management also guided to more than 150,000 retail units in Q4 and said it expects full‑year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to come in at or above the high end of its prior $2.0–$2.2 billion range. [15]
Fast Company, citing Carvana’s quarterly reports, notes that Carvana sold more than 433,000 vehicles in the first three quarters of 2025, already surpassing its full‑year 2024 total of roughly 416,000 units. [16]
This profitability and scale represent a striking reversal from late 2022, when Carvana’s survival was in doubt under the weight of a heavy debt load and collapsing used‑car demand. In 2023 the company executed a complex $5.5 billion debt exchange with over 96% participation from its bondholders, pushing out maturities and buying time for its operating turnaround. [17]
Wall Street’s pivot: “new used car king” and bullish price targets
The latest leg of the rally has been driven in part by a wave of upbeat analyst commentary.
Wedbush: from laggard to “new used car king”
On November 24, Wedbush upgraded Carvana from “Neutral” to “Outperform” and raised its price target from $380 to $400. Analysts there argued that recent weakness in the stock was an overreaction and labeled Carvana the “new used car king.” [18]
Wedbush highlighted several points:
- They expect Carvana to surpass CarMax in quarterly used‑unit volume by Q4 2026, six months earlier than they previously projected. [19]
- They now model Q4 2025 revenue of about $5.2 billion, slightly above their prior forecast. [20]
- They view Carvana’s scale, technology and vertically integrated model as structural advantages versus traditional dealers, even as the broader used‑car market struggles. [21]
Barron’s and Investor’s Business Daily both emphasized that Wedbush is asking investors to “ignore the struggling car market” and treat the recent pullback as a buying opportunity for those comfortable with volatility and credit risk. [22]
Bank of America & Barclays: leaning into the Amazon debate
Last week, Bank of America’s Mike McGovern reaffirmed a Buy rating on Carvana with a $385 price target, explicitly addressing the Amazon threat. His note, summarized by TipRanks, argued that Carvana’s broad inventory, vertically integrated operations and delivery capabilities give it a competitive edge over Amazon Autos’ more limited marketplace model, which currently lacks logistics and has narrower selection. [23]
On the same day, Barclays also maintained a Buy rating with a $390 target, citing continued unit growth, conservative guidance and a favorable pricing environment for new and used vehicles. [24]
Valuation: enthusiasm meets hard math
Despite the bullish calls, some analysts urge caution. A valuation analysis from Simply Wall St finds that: [25]
- Carvana’s share price is up 79.1% in 2025 and 40.1% over the past year.
- A discounted cash‑flow (DCF) model estimates “fair value” at about $354 per share, implying the stock trades only slightly above intrinsic value on that metric.
- However, Carvana trades on roughly 80x earnings, far above the specialty retail industry’s ~19x average. Their framework suggests a “fair” P/E closer to 38x, leading them to label the stock overvalued on earnings‑based metrics.
In other words, even supportive analysts acknowledge that Carvana is priced for very strong growth and continued execution.
Amazon Autos and Ford: a new heavyweight competitor
What makes Carvana’s rally especially contentious is that it coincides with Amazon’s push into online car sales.
On November 17, Amazon and Ford announced that customers in Los Angeles, Seattle and Dallas can now browse, finance and purchase Ford certified pre‑owned vehicles directly through Amazon Autos, completing the entire process online before picking up the car at a participating dealer. [26]
Key points from the Fast Company report: [27]
- Amazon Autos now features new vehicles from Hyundai, used cars from Hertz, and Ford CPO vehicles, dramatically expanding its selection.
- More than 160 Ford dealers have expressed interest, with about 20 already onboarding in the first three pilot cities.
- The move sharply increases competitive pressure on Carvana and CarMax, as Amazon positions itself as an online “point of discovery” for used cars.
MarketWatch framed it bluntly in a widely circulated piece: Carvana survived a debt crunch; now it needs to survive Amazon. The article argued that while Carvana’s 10,000% rebound has rewarded believers and burned shorts, Amazon’s brand power and traffic could challenge its dominance in digital car shopping. [28]
For now, several Wall Street firms – including Bank of America and Barclays – contend that Carvana’s integrated model and logistics capabilities still offer a better end‑to‑end experience than Amazon’s marketplace‑style approach, but the competitive landscape is clearly shifting. [29]
Lending practices and Hindenburg allegations keep risks in focus
Even as Carvana posts record profits, its financing arm has become a lightning rod for critics.
A recent article syndicated by MarketBeat and republished on Barchart argues that: [30]
- Carvana’s auto‑loan approval rate is around 99%, even for borrowers with weak credit profiles.
- The company reportedly accepts applicants with annual income as low as $10,000, well below the U.S. federal poverty level for a single‑person household.
- Customers can face APR rates up to 27.99% on financed vehicles.
The same piece summarizes a recent report from short seller Hindenburg Research, which claims that more than 44% of Carvana‑originated loans fall into “nonprime” territory, with over 80% of those categorized as deep subprime. Hindenburg argues that Carvana’s turnaround is “a mirage,” heavily reliant on the sale of risky loans into securitization markets at a time when subprime auto delinquencies are at or near record highs. [31]
Carvana disputes the idea that its business is fundamentally unsound, pointing to credit upgrades on its auto receivable notes by agencies such as KBRA, S&P and Morningstar, as highlighted by Wedbush and other bullish analysts. [32]
The tension between these two narratives – headline profitability and growth versus aggressive lending and valuation risk – is a central reason CVNA remains one of the market’s most polarizing stocks.
Short interest rises again, but the big squeeze is in the rear‑view mirror
Carvana’s spectacular 2023–2025 rebound was powered in part by massive short covering. At the depths of December 2022, roughly 55% of Carvana’s free float was sold short, according to S3 Partners. [33]
As of the latest November 14, 2025 reporting date, short interest stands at about 11.48 million shares, or 6.31% of the float, with a “days to cover” ratio of 3.6 based on average trading volume. That’s up about 6.2% from the prior report, indicating that some bearish bets are rebuilding as the stock grinds back toward all‑time highs. [34]
Compared with many meme‑era squeezes, a 6% short float is relatively modest. However, Carvana’s history of violent price swings means even a small shift in positioning can amplify moves in either direction, especially around earnings or macro shocks.
Insider selling: Keeton cashes out $3.5 million
On November 28, Carvana disclosed that Chief Brand Officer Ryan S. Keeton sold 10,000 shares, a transaction worth about $3.5 million, according to TipRanks and Investing.com summaries of the insider filing. [35]
TipRanks’ aggregated insider‑sentiment data notes that overall corporate insider activity in recent months has skewed toward net selling, reflecting executives’ willingness to lock in gains after the stock’s huge run. [36]
Insider sales are not uncommon after such a rally and do not automatically signal a bearish view – executives often sell for diversification or personal liquidity reasons. But in the context of elevated valuation and growing competitive and regulatory questions, these moves add another data point for investors weighing risk versus reward.
Is Carvana stock still a turnaround… or now a momentum story?
Putting the pieces together:
- Operationally, Carvana is in the best shape in its history: record units, record revenue, and solid GAAP profitability with double‑digit adjusted EBITDA margins. [37]
- Strategically, it faces an escalating battle with Amazon Autos, Ford and traditional dealers experimenting with more digital models. [38]
- Financially, the company has reduced near‑term bankruptcy risk via its debt exchange and rising earnings, but critics argue its aggressive lending and high valuation leave little margin for error. [39]
- In the market, the stock still inspires both fear and FOMO: short interest is meaningful but far from its previous extremes, insiders are taking profits, and a chorus of bullish analysts argues the story isn’t over yet. [40]
For potential investors and existing shareholders, Carvana has effectively morphed from a pure “distressed turnaround” into a high‑beta growth and momentum name. The core question now is less “Can it survive?” and more “Can it keep out‑executing competitors and managing credit risk fast enough to justify the price?”
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. simplywall.st, 3. www.barchart.com, 4. investors.carvana.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.fastcompany.com, 7. www.barchart.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. www.fastcompany.com, 12. simplywall.st, 13. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 14. investors.carvana.com, 15. investors.carvana.com, 16. www.fastcompany.com, 17. www.ifre.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. www.fastcompany.com, 27. www.fastcompany.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. www.tipranks.com, 30. www.barchart.com, 31. www.barchart.com, 32. www.barrons.com, 33. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.tipranks.com, 36. www.tipranks.com, 37. investors.carvana.com, 38. www.fastcompany.com, 39. www.ifre.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com
