NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 2:26 p.m. ET — Market Closed
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) is heading into the final trading days of 2025 with investors debating a familiar question—after a blockbuster comeback year and a major index milestone, is there still meaningful upside left for 2026, or is the stock entering a digestion phase where execution matters more than momentum?
With U.S. exchanges closed for the weekend, CVNA’s next opportunity to trade will come when the NYSE reopens for the core session Monday at 9:30 a.m. ET. New York Stock Exchange
Carvana stock price recap: where CVNA left off Friday
Carvana shares last ended the regular session at $438.47 on Friday, Dec. 26, down about 0.7% on the day. The stock traded between $436.64 and $446.80, with reported volume of roughly 1.21 million shares—consistent with the subdued, post-holiday tape across U.S. equities. StockAnalysis
That broader backdrop matters. Friday’s market action was widely characterized as quiet, thin, and low-catalyst—major indexes drifted slightly lower in light post-Christmas trading, as many market participants positioned for year-end. Reuters
The big structural tailwind: S&P 500 membership is now “in the price”—but still important
A major headline driver for Carvana in December was its addition to the S&P 500, effective prior to the open on Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, as part of S&P Dow Jones Indices’ quarterly rebalance. News Release Archive
Index inclusion can act like a one-time demand event—passive funds and index-aware strategies often need to buy (or adjust) quickly. Reuters noted the S&P 500 move as the capstone of Carvana’s dramatic turnaround narrative, highlighting how the company’s equity value and investor base have changed since the stress of 2022. Reuters
For investors looking ahead, the key takeaway is that the mechanical inclusion flows are largely behind the stock, but the strategic impact (higher visibility, broader ownership, more consistent institutional attention) can linger. In other words: the “S&P pop” may fade, but the “S&P profile” tends to stay.
What’s driving the 2026 debate: growth, profitability—and a valuation that demands execution
Carvana’s bull case increasingly rests on the idea that the company has moved from a survival story into a scalable profitability story.
In its most recent quarterly results (Q3 2025), Carvana reported:
- 155,941 retail units sold (up 44% year over year)
- $5.65 billion in revenue (up 55% year over year)
- Net income of $263 million
- Adjusted EBITDA of $637 million
Management also guided to Q4 retail units sold above 150,000 and said it expected full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of its previously communicated $2.0–$2.2 billion range (assuming stable conditions). Carvana Investors
That’s the “numbers” foundation of the narrative. The “market” foundation is that investors are already paying up for it. Reuters previously pointed to Carvana’s premium valuation versus legacy automakers and highlighted how the stock’s rebound has been fueled by cost controls, debt actions, and improving demand—but also that the shares trade at lofty levels compared with traditional peers. Reuters
The last 24–48 hours: fresh reads on CVNA’s 2026 setup
Over the past two days, the most prominent Carvana stock coverage has been forward-looking analysis rather than breaking corporate headlines—reflecting both weekend timing and a quieter holiday news cycle.
Zacks/Nasdaq: estimates imply continued growth into 2026
A Zacks-authored analysis syndicated on Nasdaq highlighted expectations for 2026, pointing to:
- a Zacks Consensus Estimate implying ~31% sales growth and ~37% EPS growth in 2026 versus projected 2025 levels, and
- a higher EPS estimate revision over the last 60 days (framed as improving analyst confidence). Nasdaq
The piece also referenced the broader used-car demand environment, citing expectations from Cox Automotive that used-vehicle demand remains steady into 2026—an important macro assumption for any used-auto retailer’s model. Nasdaq
Barchart: “gas left in the tank?” hinges on sustaining the operating model
A separate Barchart analysis leaned into the same question investors are asking into year-end: after a standout 2025, how much runway remains?
Barchart emphasized the same operational trends (unit growth, profitability), and also cited analyst expectations calling for sharp EPS growth in 2025 and continued gains in 2026—reinforcing the idea that the market is treating Carvana less like a turnaround option and more like an operating business with expanding margins. Barchart
Wall Street targets and upgrades: where the latest “expert” calls are clustered
Recent analyst activity in December has been notable not just for bullish ratings—but for how wide the target range remains. Here are several price-target actions and reiterations that investors have been citing:
- Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni raised Carvana’s price target to $550 from $475 and kept a Buy rating (per TheFly). TipRanks
- Barclays analyst John Babcock raised his target to $465 from $390 and maintained an Overweight rating (as distributed via Benzinga/Webull). Webull
- BTIG analyst Marvin Fong reiterated Buy and maintained a $450 target (as distributed by Sahm Capital). Sahm
- Argus initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $500 target, citing competitive advantages versus traditional dealerships (as summarized in the Barchart analysis). Barchart
Meanwhile, a Fintel-syndicated item on Nasdaq framed the broader sell-side landscape with a snapshot of consensus targets and a fairly wide forecast range—useful context even if individual targets can change quickly in a fast-moving tape. Nasdaq
How to read this: The clustering of targets in the mid-$400s to $500+ range shows meaningful optimism, but the dispersion also underscores that analysts are still debating the durability of Carvana’s margin structure, the cycle sensitivity of used autos, and how much multiple expansion is left after the S&P 500 catalyst.
Insider filing watch: a recent Form 4 investors should understand
Beyond analyst notes, investors tracking governance and insider behavior have also been parsing recent SEC filings.
In a Form 4 disclosure, Carvana’s Chief Operating Officer, Benjamin E. Huston, reported activity dated Dec. 8, 2025, including:
- an exercise of 40,000 shares via options at $10.07, and
- sales of 20,000 shares at $429 and 20,000 shares at $450,
with the filing noting the trades were executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted in December 2024. SEC
This kind of activity isn’t automatically bearish—10b5-1 plans are commonly used for scheduled diversification and tax planning—but in a high-momentum stock, insider-sale optics can still influence short-term sentiment.
Technical setup into Monday: levels investors are watching
Carvana’s volatility has been a feature, not a bug. Into next week, traders are likely to focus on the recent trading range:
- A recent swing low near $429.59 (Dec. 22)
- A recent high near $474.89 (Dec. 19)
Those levels—roughly “$430 support” and “$475 resistance”—have become a practical map for near-term positioning as the stock consolidates after a sharp run and S&P-related trading activity. StockAnalysis
If you’re holding (or watching) CVNA: what to know before the next session
Because the market is closed now, the most actionable preparation is about catalyst awareness—what could move the tape when the bell rings Monday.
- Know the market hours and liquidity reality. The NYSE core session runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET; late December often sees thinner liquidity and faster moves on less volume. New York Stock Exchange
- Watch Monday’s scheduled U.S. data. On Dec. 29, releases include Advance International Trade in Goods (8:30 a.m. ET) and Pending Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET), among others—important because rate expectations and consumer health can impact discretionary names like CVNA. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Be aware of Carvana’s next major “company clock.” Earnings calendars currently point to Carvana’s next report in mid-February 2026 (one widely followed calendar pegs Feb. 18, 2026 as the expected date). Public
- Separate the “story” from the “quarter.” The S&P 500 milestone and the turnaround narrative are powerful, but 2026 performance will still come down to unit volumes, GPU (gross profit per unit), reconditioning/logistics efficiency, and the sustainability of profitability trends described in the company’s latest results and outlook. Carvana Investors
Bottom line
Carvana stock enters the final stretch of 2025 in a market environment defined by thin holiday trading and a “Santa rally” watch, while CVNA itself is transitioning from index-inclusion momentum into an execution-and-valuation debate. Reuters
The bull case has credible pillars—record unit growth, meaningful profitability improvement, and management’s confidence in maintaining momentum—supported by a wave of analyst target increases into year-end. Sahm
But the bear case is also straightforward: after a massive run and a premium multiple, even modest disappointment in demand, margin trajectory, or consumer financing conditions can hit a stock like CVNA harder than the average S&P 500 constituent. Reuters
