Carvana Co. shares traded around $461 on Monday, extending a powerful run that has pushed the online used-car retailer back into the market spotlight just days before its scheduled S&P 500 entry.
The fresh catalyst on Dec. 15, 2025: Argus Research initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and a $500 price target, calling out Carvana’s competitive advantages versus traditional dealerships (selection, pricing, quality, and user experience). [1]
But as Carvana stock approaches (and in some sessions has flirted with) a $100+ billion valuation, the debate is getting sharper: is this the start of a new institutional chapter powered by index flows and improving fundamentals—or a momentum trade that’s already priced in much of the good news?
What’s driving Carvana stock on Dec. 15, 2025
Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) was modestly higher in Monday trading after Argus opened coverage with a bullish call. In the Reuters/Refinitiv note carried by TradingView, Argus set a $500 target and said Carvana holds structural advantages over traditional dealers—an upbeat view arriving as the stock trades near record territory. [2]
In Monday’s session, CVNA traded near $460.99, with an intraday range roughly between $455 and $467 (as of the latest reported trade time in the session).
A key detail for investors: the Argus call comes after a stretch of outsized gains that has made Carvana one of the market’s most-watched consumer-discretionary names heading into the final full weeks of 2025.
The S&P 500 effect: why Dec. 22 is a major near-term event for CVNA
Carvana is slated to join the S&P 500 effective Dec. 22, 2025, a milestone that can create mechanical buying pressure from index funds and passive strategies that track the benchmark. Reuters reported the inclusion as the capstone to a dramatic turnaround story. [3]
That “index inclusion bid” is one reason the stock has been so active in December. Market commentators have emphasized that S&P additions can pull in new ownership—both passive and active—while also increasing visibility and liquidity. [4]
Still, the S&P 500 event can cut both ways:
- Before inclusion: demand can build as funds and event-driven traders position.
- After inclusion: the stock can cool off once the forced buying is complete, especially if short-term expectations are stretched. Barron’s highlighted this risk dynamic while noting the rally has been fueled by S&P 500 inclusion and bullish sentiment. [5]
For Dec. 15 readers, the practical takeaway is simple: Dec. 22 is a date risk—the kind of calendar catalyst that can amplify volatility in either direction.
From “bankruptcy fears” to mega-cap territory: the turnaround narrative powering the rally
The scale of Carvana’s comeback is difficult to overstate. Reuters has described the journey as a swing from 2022-era distress to a position where Carvana’s market value surpassed legacy automakers, with shares up more than 8,000% from the 2022 lows at one point in this run. [6]
That rebound story has been reinforced by a steady drumbeat of analyst upgrades/target raises and by improving operating performance—particularly profitability metrics that were under intense scrutiny during the downturn.
Carvana fundamentals: record Q3 2025 results and a big FY2025 profitability target
Behind the market narrative is a set of operating numbers that bulls point to as evidence Carvana is no longer “just a story stock.”
In its Q3 2025 release, Carvana reported:
- 155,941 retail units sold (up 44% YoY)
- Revenue of $5.647 billion (up 55% YoY)
- Net income of $263 million (net margin 4.7%)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $637 million (margin 11.3%) [7]
Just as important, the company provided an outlook framework investors are using to anchor expectations into year-end:
- Q4 retail units sold above 150,000
- Full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of its previously communicated $2.0–$2.2 billion range, assuming a stable environment [8]
Reuters has also pointed to industry conditions that may be supporting demand, reporting that tariffs pushing up new-car prices have nudged more buyers toward used vehicles—benefiting players like Carvana. [9]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: bullish ratings, but targets cluster below the current price
One reason Carvana stock is so divisive right now is that analyst sentiment is broadly positive—yet consensus targets don’t fully “keep up” with the current share price after the latest surge.
The new Argus call (Dec. 15)
- Rating: Buy
- Price target:$500
- Reuters/Refinitiv also cited a median price target around $450 in the same item. [10]
The broader consensus snapshot
Different aggregators show slightly different averages, but the common theme is consistent:
- MarketBeat’s compilation shows “Moderate Buy,” with an average target around $441.55 (with targets ranging from $275 to $550). [11]
- StockAnalysis lists a consensus “Buy” with an average target around $426.77, and the same $275–$550 low/high band. [12]
When the stock trades near $460+, that creates a headline contradiction: many analysts are bullish on the business, but the “average” target can imply limited upside (or even downside) if the stock stays at these levels. [13]
In practice, this usually means the market is pricing in a “best case” path faster than consensus—often a setup for bigger moves on incremental data (sales trends, margins, funding costs, or guidance).
Recent notable target raises (early/mid-December)
Two widely circulated analyst updates added fuel to the rally:
- Jefferies raised its price target to $550 from $475 while keeping a Buy rating (TheFly via TipRanks). [14]
- Citi raised its target to $550 from $445, also keeping a Buy rating, citing a tracker suggesting November retail sales growth accelerated versus October and raising EBITDA projections (TheFly via TipRanks). [15]
In other words: the bull camp is increasingly arguing that Carvana is compounding faster than expected, and that higher targets are justified by real-time unit growth signals and operating leverage.
The rally mechanics: winning streak headlines and “what happens after inclusion” debate
Carvana’s stock action itself has become part of the story.
MarketWatch reported that the stock notched its longest winning streak on record in December, with the move tied closely to anticipation of the S&P 500 addition and to the idea that broader investor participation may increase as index funds buy. [16]
At the same time, caution flags have appeared in some coverage. Barron’s has noted that Carvana’s valuation has expanded dramatically versus peers and that, historically, some stocks added to the S&P 500 can track the broader index more closely after the initial “inclusion pop.” [17]
This split view matters for Dec. 15 positioning:
- Momentum traders focus on the index-flow tailwind into Dec. 22.
- Fundamental investors ask whether Carvana’s earnings power and balance sheet justify the multiple at $460+.
- Event-driven skeptics watch for a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern around inclusion.
Insider selling: what the latest Form 4 headlines are (and what they may mean)
Another theme surfacing in the latest news cycle is insider activity. Multiple filings and related reports around Dec. 12 highlighted sales by senior executives.
Examples reported include:
- COO Benjamin Huston selling 20,000 shares at about $475 per share (about $9.5 million in value). [18]
- Chief Product Officer Daniel Gill selling 40,000 shares for roughly $19 million, alongside option exercises. [19]
One important nuance: at least some reported transactions were described as occurring under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, which is designed to pre-schedule trades and reduce the appearance of trading on non-public information. [20]
For investors, insider selling near highs can be interpreted in more than one way:
- Bearish interpretation: management is taking chips off the table after a massive run.
- Neutral interpretation: planned sales/options exercises are common, especially after large appreciation.
- Bullish counterpoint: the bigger signal may be whether fundamentals continue to improve—not whether executives diversify personal holdings.
Valuation check: why the upside case now depends on execution, not just sentiment
Even bulls acknowledge that Carvana is no longer “cheap” by traditional metrics.
Reuters has previously highlighted Carvana trading at elevated multiples (including a forward earnings multiple cited in the S&P 500 inclusion coverage). [21] Meanwhile, other market summaries have emphasized that Carvana’s valuation is now far above traditional auto retail peers—raising the bar for continued beats and raises. [22]
At today’s levels, the market appears to be paying for some mix of:
- Sustained high unit growth
- Durable margins (including continued operating leverage as volume scales)
- Stability in used-car demand and availability
- Continued access to financing and disciplined credit/loan sale execution
Any disappointment in those pillars can matter more when a stock is priced for excellence.
What to watch next: the near-term checklist for Carvana stock
Here are the catalysts investors are likely to focus on after Dec. 15:
1) S&P 500 inclusion day (Dec. 22)
Expect higher volume and potentially larger swings as passive flows and positioning collide. [23]
2) Q4 results and updated 2026 outlook
Carvana’s last formal outlook said Q4 retail units above 150,000 and implied confidence in FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA at/above the top end of the $2.0–$2.2B range (if the environment remains stable). [24]
Investors will want to see whether those targets were met—and what the company says about 2026.
3) The earnings date itself (mid/late February)
Public calendars show differing expected dates (some estimate around Feb. 18, while others show a later February date), which suggests the company may not have confirmed the exact schedule yet. [25]
4) Used-car demand signals and financing conditions
Reuters has linked used-car demand strength to broader market forces (including new-car pricing dynamics). If macro conditions shift—rates, credit availability, consumer confidence—CVNA tends to react quickly. [26]
The big-picture bull case vs. bear case (Dec. 15 framing)
Bull case:
Carvana is transitioning from a turnaround to a scaling story. Record profitability and expanding volume show the model can work at higher throughput, while S&P 500 membership broadens ownership and may lower the company’s cost of capital over time. [27]
Bear case:
The stock is pricing in near-flawless execution and may be vulnerable to a post-inclusion cooldown. At $460+, the “average” analyst target implies limited upside, and insider-sale headlines add to the sense that expectations have gotten stretched. [28]
Bottom line
On Dec. 15, 2025, Carvana stock is being propelled by a combination of fresh bullish coverage (Argus “Buy,” $500 target) and the countdown to S&P 500 inclusion on Dec. 22—all on top of a powerful multi-week momentum run. [29]
References
1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. investors.carvana.com, 8. investors.carvana.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.tradingview.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. ca.investing.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.stocktitan.net, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. investors.carvana.com, 25. www.zacks.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. investors.carvana.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.tradingview.com
