July 9, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Coffee futures shot higher Thursday, with September arabica jumping 12.3% and robusta up 8.07%. Trading stayed rough after the Intercontinental Exchange raised margin requirements, thinning out liquidity. Brazil's harvest is still behind, at 52% finished, trailing the 60% average, while rain threats hang over the crop. ICE arabica stocks hit a 2.25-year low, helping push prices up. Traders are watching a possible strong El Niño-NOAA puts odds at 67%-which could hit Brazil's 2026/27 crop with drought or flooding during flowering. Farmer selling has slowed, inventories keep shifting, and uncertainty remains high as adverse weather clouds the global outlook.
