NYSE:MHO 19 December 2025

March 29, 2026, 10:47 PM EDT. JPMorgan and Pimco, leading bond-fund managers, say the bond market is underestimating the risk of a sharp economic slowdown due to the US conflict in Iran. Rising oil prices above $110 per barrel have fueled inflation concerns, causing a deep selloff in the US Treasury market and pushing bond yields up. However, these firms anticipate a growth hit will eventually force yields down as investors adjust. Economists from Goldman Sachs and Pimco now assign a 30-35% probability of recession within 12 months. The selloff driven by inflation fears may actually offer a chance to lock in higher yields before a potential rebound triggered by an economic slowdown and eventual rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.