LONDON, March 29, 2026, 20:06 (UTC+1)
- Brent futures closed out Friday at $112.57 a barrel, a 4.2% jump. U.S. West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, finished higher too, up 5.5% at $99.64. Traders saw little chance for a ceasefire anytime soon.
- Some tankers have made it through and there’s been a burst of weekend diplomacy focused on the Strait of Hormuz, but the Houthis’ entry into the fray has kept nerves frayed, stoking concerns that the conflict could easily spill wider.
- Eyes now turn to April 5, when OPEC+ holds its review. Before that, the next U.S. Weekly Petroleum Status Report is slated for April 1.
Oil’s starting the week on solid ground after Friday’s rally, with Brent climbing past $110 again as traders stick with bets on drawn-out trouble in the Gulf. For now, the market’s watching to see if the latest Hormuz negotiations turn out anything more than a few vessels getting through safely.
This isn’t just numbers flashing on a screen anymore. The International Energy Agency is calling it: the near-standstill in Strait of Hormuz shipments has triggered what they describe as the biggest supply shock the oil market’s ever seen. Governments are scrambling. On Sunday, India loosened kerosene rules to get fuel to households faster. Egypt slashed fuel allocations and hit the brakes on diesel-intensive state projects. Over at Shell, CEO Wael Sawan didn’t mince words: “countries cannot have national security without energy security.” IEA
Pakistan on Sunday reported that it’s been in talks with Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia about reopening the Hormuz strait. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said Iran has agreed to allow passage for 20 additional ships flying Pakistan’s flag. Yet the route remains shaky. On Friday, two Chinese container vessels abandoned their attempt to exit the Gulf. Kpler analyst Rebecca Gerdes summed it up: “safe passage could not be guaranteed.” Reuters
The squeeze is distorting the physical market as well. After Dubai crude soared to a record, Asian refiners began pegging U.S. crude to ICE Brent, breaking from their usual Dubai benchmark. Some buyers have even pressed Saudi Aramco to adopt a Brent-linked pricing formula. Earlier this month, TotalEnergies’ trading arm stood alone as a buyer in the Platts window, but later in the week, sellers like Shell, BP, Vitol and Unipec entered the market, driving Dubai premiums sharply down.
Investors are watching the war’s duration more than headline swings, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said. The result: a stubborn risk premium baked into both Brent and WTI, as traders brace for potential supply disruptions. “More than 10 million barrels a day are missing while Hormuz flows remain constrained,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted. Reuters
This week, traders have three key items on their radar. First up: signs that tanker traffic could pick up, following Sunday’s clearance of two India-bound liquefied petroleum gas shipments through the strait. Next, the April 5 gathering of eight OPEC+ producers—after setting a 206,000 barrel-per-day boost for April back on March 1, the group returns to assess market conditions. And then there’s Wednesday’s U.S. Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the next official snapshot of inventories and refinery activity.
Positioning points to a market still on edge for another surge. In options, where contracts track future volatility, open interest tied to Brent topping $150 by end-April has jumped almost tenfold from last month. Energy Aspects’ Tim Skirrow called those bets “clear signs” that investors are guarding against steep price spikes. Reuters
The latest Reuters poll of 13 analysts reveals a striking gap in projections: Brent is seen averaging $134.62 as long as current supply disruptions drag on, but that jumps to $153.85 if Kharg Island’s Iranian export infrastructure takes a hit. “All Asian countries will feel the pinch” with restricted Hormuz transit, DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar said. Reuters
Still, there’s a risk for those betting on more gains. Macquarie sees prices dropping sharply if the war tapers off soon—though not all the way to pre-war levels. Over at Barclays, the base scenario sticks: Hormuz traffic returns to normal by early April, which the bank says lines up with Brent at $85 a barrel for 2026.
At the moment, trading is being driven more by ship activity than by any official remarks. Over the weekend, some additional cargoes slipped through, but Friday brought a different story: Chinese vessels forced to turn back, Houthis stepping into the fray—fresh evidence that it wouldn’t take much for crude prices to lurch upward on the next unsettling headline.
