New York, May 13, 2026, 15:01 EDT
- BigBear.ai climbed roughly 3.1% in Wednesday’s afternoon session, stretching its one-month gain to 24.7%.
- First-quarter backlog climbed 14% to $281.9 million, lifted by fresh contracts tied to national security and travel.
- Losses still weigh, along with government-contract timing and valuation, keeping the rebound in check.
BigBear.ai Holdings caught a bid Wednesday, shares jumping as much as 3.1% to $4.32 by 2:46 p.m. EDT. More than 30 million shares changed hands as the defense AI firm continued to claw back from early-year losses, drawing fresh investor attention.
Shares have surged 24.7% in the past month, leaving both the S&P 500 and the tech sector trailing, Zacks figures via TradingView show. But the rally isn’t just about earnings—a lot of eyes are on whether investors will stick around for BigBear.ai’s government AI bets and growing backlog, which could mean fatter margins if the platform push pays off.
BigBear.ai is in the thick of showing that its flurry of fresh contract wins might be enough to balance out flat revenue and stubborn losses, not to mention the unpredictable tempo of federal procurement. Its AI products—used across national security, trade, and travel—boil down to decision-support software, sifting through massive data streams for agencies and operators.
BigBear.ai posted first-quarter revenue of $34.4 million, a touch lower than the $34.8 million it reported a year ago. Gross margin, though, jumped to 34.0% from 21.3%. The company’s backlog climbed 14% from Q4, reaching $281.9 million—helped in part by a $53 million classified intelligence award. Full-year revenue guidance stays unchanged at $135 million to $165 million.
Chief Executive Kevin McAleenan called out “significant wins in Q1,” saying those awards have the company moving toward its 2026 top-line target. McAleenan added that BigBear.ai has reorganized its sales, technology, delivery, and customer-success teams to focus on its key growth priorities. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
The pressing issue right now: Can Ask Sage—the generative AI tool BigBear.ai snapped up late in 2025—move the needle on profits? Generative AI covers technology that produces things like text, code, or summaries on demand. According to BigBear.ai, Ask Sage has already shifted its revenue stream toward higher-margin platforms and products.
On the May 5 earnings call, CFO Sean Ricker told investors BigBear.ai was “affirming our outlook” for 2026 revenue, sticking with the $135 million to $165 million range. Adjusted EBITDA, which the company uses as its profit yardstick, came in at negative $9.9 million—deeper in the red compared with last year’s negative $7.0 million. The Motley Fool
Not everything pointed upward this quarter. Revenue slipped 0.9% from a year ago, the company’s regulatory filing showed, hit by a dip in Army program volume and the absence of certain 2025 contracts—last year’s one-offs. Ask Sage helped cushion some of that decline. On the expense front, SG&A jumped 28.6%, as Ask Sage investments, plus higher sales, marketing, and other spend, all added up.
BigBear.ai finished March with $431.5 million in cash and investments on hand. Debt levels dropped sharply—down to $17.7 million from $142.3 million at 2025’s close, following the conversion of its 2029 notes.
The field is crowded. Zacks points to Palantir Technologies, C3.ai, and Booz Allen Hamilton—each with a stronger federal foothold, a wider range of clients, or more heft when it comes to resources in government and enterprise AI. Of those, Palantir stands out as the go-to example for investors focused on mission-driven AI software.
BigBear.ai shares have surged ahead of what the underlying business seems to support. According to the company’s latest 10-Q, most revenue still depends on federal contracts, leaving results exposed to shifts in funding, changing procurement priorities, and the timing of government budgets. The filing also flags another risk: acquisition reforms or program reviews could trigger cancellations, potentially dealing a blow to the business.
BigBear.ai is back in the market’s sights for the moment, thanks to a growing backlog and the Ask Sage acquisition helping to sharpen its software narrative. Still, investors want proof that these contract wins actually deliver more consistent revenue—and ultimately, some operating profit.
