NEW YORK, March 29, 2026, 15:05 EDT
Mortgage rates in the U.S. are starting the week just under the highest levels seen in six months. According to Mortgage News Daily, its lender index wrapped up Friday sitting at 6.64% for top-tier borrowers. Freddie Mac’s weekly data also tracked a jump: the average 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.38%, up from 6.22% the week before.
The timing is tough: this move lands right in the heart of the spring homebuying stretch, where even a fractional uptick in borrowing costs can push would-be buyers to the sidelines. Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, and that benchmark added just over 1 basis point on Friday to reach 4.428%. The backdrop? Investors are still on edge about an inflation jolt, with oil prices climbing amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a notable jump: the contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased by 13 basis points to 6.43% for the week ended March 20—the sharpest one-week rise since last April. Total mortgage applications dropped by 10.5%.
Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater noted the housing market’s “gradual improvements” compared with last year. But keep in mind, Freddie Mac’s survey captures loan applications from Thursday to Wednesday, so it missed the surge in bond yields late in the week. That uptick hit Friday’s daily lender quotes, which almost hit 6.7% before slipping back to 6.64%. Freddie Mac
This week, it’s the packed calendar that stands out, not the housing numbers. The Census Bureau’s February retail sales figures drop Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed two hours later by ISM’s March manufacturing survey at 10:00 a.m. ET. Friday brings the March jobs report from the Labor Department, set for 8:30 a.m. ET.
As of Friday, Reuters is looking for payrolls to rise by 55,000 and the unemployment rate to hit 4.4%. The release lands on Good Friday, with U.S. equity markets shut and SIFMA calling for a noon ET close in dollar-denominated fixed income. Traders get only a clipped bond session to take in one of the week’s headline reports.
Banks and homebuyers watching rates have little room for error now. If retail sales hold up, if factories post solid survey numbers, or job data comes in hot, Treasury yields could stay stubbornly high—sending mortgage rates higher too. Oil prices sticking at current levels only add to the pressure.
Things could flip just as easily in the other direction. “Any sign of a breakthrough with Iran would go a long way toward reassuring investors,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. On top of that, a weaker labor report could bring back the idea that markets have overcorrected in dismissing Fed cuts. Reuters
Uncertainty hangs over the next move for rates. Markets have largely dropped bets on Fed cuts this year, with some pricing in a possible hike. Yet, a Reuters survey of economists leans toward no change from the Fed until September. Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays, thinks policymakers will need more time before they’re convinced inflation is heading back to target.
So for now, it’s macro forces steering the wheel for mortgage buyers as the week kicks off—not much help from lenders jockeying for business. “Higher for longer oil prices” are propping up Treasury yields, according to Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. That’s translating directly into more strain on housing finance. Reuters
