NYSE:REYN 4 February 2026

March 18, 2026, 6:44 AM EDT. HSBC strategists say equity markets are pricing in a recession, not stagflation, despite fears fueled by the U.S.-Iran conflict and surging oil prices. Their models estimate a 35% chance of recession, up from 10% two weeks ago, while stagflation risk remains low at 8%. They identify buying opportunities in oversold emerging markets like South Korea, South Africa, and Indonesia, and sectors such as industrials and banks. The war-induced volatility has led to dislocations, with some markets, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi, trading 10% below fundamentals due to geopolitical risks. HSBC notes a 9% relative underperformance of cyclical stocks compared to defensives since February, signaling a potential rotation in investor focus.