Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is trading just off record territory on Friday, Dec. 12, 2025, after a powerful run that has made the heavy-equipment giant one of 2025’s standout industrial names. The latest catalyst list blends “old economy” demand (infrastructure and mining) with a distinctly modern theme: power-generation equipment tied to AI data centers. [1]
As of 15:01:13 UTC (10:01 a.m. ET), CAT shares were $620.41, down $5.20 from Thursday’s close (about -0.83%), after trading between $619.93 and $629.02 intraday.
Below is a detailed, publication-ready roundup of today’s key developments (12/12/2025), plus the freshest forecasts and analysis shaping how Wall Street is thinking about CAT stock heading into 2026.
CAT stock today: why it’s pulling back, even as the trend stays strong
Caterpillar is digesting gains after a strong prior session. On Thursday, Dec. 11, MarketWatch reported CAT closed at $625.61 after a “strong trading day,” marking a fresh push toward record levels. [2]
Market commentary this week has repeatedly pointed to two forces supporting the stock:
- AI-era power demand lifting Caterpillar’s Energy & Transportation business (engines, turbines, power systems)
- Resilient “traditional” cycles in infrastructure and select mining markets, supported by a large order backlog
Those themes have helped keep buyers engaged even as the stock’s valuation has moved up sharply. [3]
The headline corporate update this week: Caterpillar maintains its dividend
The most concrete piece of company news arriving into mid-December is shareholder-friendly and straightforward: Caterpillar maintained its quarterly dividend at $1.51 per share.
Caterpillar said its board voted to keep the quarterly dividend at $1.51 per share, payable Feb. 19, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business Jan. 20, 2026. [4]
For income investors, that implies:
- Annualized dividend: $1.51 × 4 = $6.04 per share
- Implied yield: roughly ~1.0% at today’s ~$620 share price (yield moves with price)
Caterpillar also emphasized its long dividend track record and “Dividend Aristocrats” status in the announcement. [5]
The biggest driver behind the 2025 CAT stock story: AI data-center power demand
Caterpillar has always been a “global economy” bellwether, but 2025’s narrative has evolved: investors increasingly treat CAT as an AI infrastructure beneficiary—not because it sells chips, but because AI data centers need reliable power generation.
Reuters’ October earnings coverage captured this dynamic, noting that demand tied to AI technologies has boosted sales of Caterpillar’s power-generation systems, helping the company top quarterly estimates. [6]
MarketWatch similarly highlighted that CAT’s outlook and backlog strength were supported by demand in energy and data-center infrastructure, with the company citing a record backlog. [7]
And this “AI power” theme isn’t just talk—Caterpillar has been building partnerships around it.
Partnership spotlight: Vertiv and Caterpillar collaboration for AI data centers
One of the most-cited strategic headlines supporting the “AI infrastructure” thesis is the Vertiv–Caterpillar collaboration aimed at integrated power and cooling solutions for data centers.
Vertiv announced a collaboration with Caterpillar to develop energy optimization solutions for AI data centers, focused on improving efficiency, resiliency, and deployment timelines through integrated approaches. [8]
Why this matters for CAT stock: it reinforces the idea that Caterpillar is positioning its power generation offering as part of a broader, faster-to-deploy “data center stack,” rather than a standalone equipment purchase. [9]
Mining technology momentum: autonomy and electrification keep Caterpillar in the capex conversation
While AI data centers are grabbing headlines, Caterpillar continues to benefit from long-running mining technology trends—particularly automation and electrification.
Vale’s autonomous truck expansion
Vale, Caterpillar, and dealer Sotreq signed an agreement to expand Vale’s autonomous haul truck fleet in Brazil’s Northern System operations, with expansion planned over multiple years. [10]
BHP and Rio Tinto electric haul truck trials
Reuters reported that BHP began a trial of electric haul trucks at its Jimblebar iron ore mine, in a partnership involving Rio Tinto and Caterpillar, as miners explore battery-electric technology to reduce diesel use and emissions. [11]
These programs matter to investors because they can support longer-cycle equipment demand (and service ecosystems) even when some construction end-markets soften.
M&A and software angle: Caterpillar’s RPMGlobal deal adds a digital lever
Caterpillar also has a “digital mining” leg to its 2025 narrative.
The company announced an agreement to acquire RPMGlobal, an Australia-based mining software company, and said the transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 (subject to approvals and customary conditions). [12]
Reuters described the deal value at about A$1.12 billion (roughly $728 million). [13]
Investors typically view this type of acquisition through two lenses:
- Can software deepen customer lock-in (fleet, asset management, autonomy workflows)?
- Does it support margins and recurring revenue mix over time?
Earnings recap fueling today’s forecasts: what CAT reported last quarter
Caterpillar’s most recent earnings release remains central to current analyst models.
In its third-quarter 2025 report, Caterpillar said:
- Sales and revenues rose 10% to $17.6 billion
- Adjusted profit per share was $4.95
- The company deployed $1.1 billion for dividends and share repurchases in the quarter [14]
Reuters’ coverage added key context: strong performance was helped by demand for energy equipment tied to AI data centers, while tariff costs remained a significant headwind (more on that below). [15]
Wall Street forecasts: price targets are rising, but consensus is mixed
Big bull targets
A number of prominent price targets circulating in late 2025 sit well above the current quote:
- Citigroup raised its price target to $690 (from $670) and maintained a Buy rating, according to MarketScreener/MT Newswires. [16]
- Truist raised its target to $729 and kept a Buy rating (reported in market commentary and news wires). [17]
The common bullish thread: a belief that Caterpillar’s power-generation exposure is becoming more durable and structurally important than investors historically assumed—potentially supporting a higher valuation multiple. [18]
Bear-case caution still exists
Not every shop is on board with the premium valuation. MarketScreener’s news list also shows Morgan Stanley maintaining an Underweight stance with a much lower target (reported at $395 in the same stream of updates). [19]
Even without leaning on any single bank’s model, the takeaway is clear: the spread between bullish and bearish targets is unusually wide, reflecting uncertainty about where we are in the industrial cycle and how persistent the AI-power tailwind will be.
Where consensus sits versus today’s price
Two widely followed snapshots show CAT trading above some consensus estimates:
- MarketWatch shows an average target around $602.76 (with a large analyst set), implying the stock is already above that level today. [20]
- MarketScreener (FactSet-based display) shows an average target around $589.07 against a last close of $625.61. [21]
That “price above consensus” setup is one reason valuation-focused pieces have started to surface more often.
Today’s analysis (12/12/2025): valuation is becoming the debate
A Simply Wall St analysis published Dec. 12, 2025 frames Caterpillar as one of the year’s standout Dow names, with performance powered by infrastructure plus AI-related infrastructure demand—but it also argues the stock is near record highs and at a premium versus some fair-value narratives and analyst targets. [22]
Whether you agree with that specific framework or not, it mirrors the broader market conversation: CAT’s story looks stronger than a classic late-cycle machinery play, but investors are paying up for that story now.
Risks investors are watching closely
No industrial leader trades at record levels without risk. For Caterpillar, several issues are front-and-center in current coverage:
1) Tariff and trade-cost pressure
Reuters reported Caterpillar expects annual tariff costs in a range of $1.6 billion to $1.75 billion, and indicated tariff headwinds could be larger in the final quarter versus Q3. [23]
Translation for stock-watchers: even if demand is resilient, policy-driven cost inflation can pressure margins and complicate guidance.
2) Legal overhang: Bobcat patent dispute
Reuters reported on Dec. 2, 2025 that Bobcat sued Caterpillar alleging patent infringement tied to technology used across multiple types of construction equipment, and also sought an order at the U.S. International Trade Commission to block certain imports. [24]
Most investors won’t handicap the outcome day-to-day, but cases like this can create headline risk and uncertainty around product lines.
3) Cyclicality doesn’t disappear
Even with AI-data-center power demand, Caterpillar remains exposed to:
- construction activity
- mining capex cycles
- dealer inventory swings
- interest rate sensitivity
CAT’s strength in 2025 doesn’t guarantee a straight line in 2026—particularly if construction slows while power demand remains strong, creating a more mixed segment picture. [25]
What to watch next: earnings timing and the next catalyst window
Caterpillar has not universally confirmed the exact date for its next earnings release across all market calendars, but multiple widely followed trackers cluster the next report in late January 2026:
- Nasdaq shows an estimated earnings date of Jan. 29, 2026 (algorithm-derived). [26]
- Zacks also points to Jan. 29, 2026 for the next report on its earnings calendar. [27]
- Other calendars display a nearby Jan. 28, 2026 projection. [28]
Given how much of CAT’s rerating has been tied to power-generation demand and backlog confidence, the next earnings cycle is likely to focus on:
- momentum (or moderation) in Energy & Transportation orders
- margin durability under tariff pressure
- any shift in dealer inventory behavior
- capital return pace (dividends + buybacks)
The 12/12/2025 bottom line for Caterpillar stock
Caterpillar stock enters the Dec. 12 session near record highs, supported by a rare mix of narratives: classic infrastructure + mining exposure, plus a credible role in AI-era energy infrastructure. [29]
At the same time, the stock’s surge means the market is increasingly debating valuation and expectations, especially with tariff costs and macro cyclicality still in play. [30]
For readers tracking CAT as a Google News/Discover story, the takeaway is simple: Caterpillar is no longer trading like a plain-vanilla machinery bellwether—but whether it can stay priced like an AI-infrastructure beneficiary will depend on what management delivers in the next few quarters.
References
1. simplywall.st, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. simplywall.st, 4. www.caterpillar.com, 5. www.caterpillar.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. www.vertiv.com, 9. www.vertiv.com, 10. vale.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.caterpillar.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. investors.caterpillar.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.marketscreener.com, 17. finance.yahoo.com, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. simplywall.st, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.zacks.com, 28. www.marketscreener.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. simplywall.st
