Caterpillar stock drifts into year-end as Fed minutes loom and trading stays thin

Caterpillar stock drifts into year-end as Fed minutes loom and trading stays thin

NEW YORK, December 28, 2025, 22:48 ET — Market closed

  • Caterpillar shares closed down 0.13% on Friday at $583.00 in muted post-Christmas trade. 1
  • Wall Street finished slightly lower in a light-volume session, leaving investors scanning for the next catalyst into year-end. 2
  • Traders are watching Tuesday’s Fed minutes and late-December market rotation beyond big tech. 3

Caterpillar Inc shares ended Friday slightly lower, closing down 0.13% at $583.00 as trading stayed subdued ahead of the final sessions of 2025. 1

The heavy-equipment maker is widely watched as a read on cyclical demand, and the muted move comes as investors head into year-end looking for fresh direction from rates and broader market leadership. 3

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting are due Tuesday, and markets are focused on what they signal about the pace of rate cuts in 2026 after the central bank lowered its benchmark rate by 75 basis points — or three-quarters of a percentage point — over its last three meetings to 3.50%–3.75%, Reuters reported. 3

On Friday, Caterpillar traded between $578.65 and $583.83, with about 954,000 shares changing hands, according to historical pricing data. 1

U.S. stocks finished marginally lower in a light-volume post-Christmas session with few catalysts, Reuters said, snapping a five-session rally even as major indexes stayed close to record territory. 2

The session also fell in the so-called “Santa Claus rally” window — the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year — a seasonal stretch traders watch for year-end strength. 2

Other industrial names were broadly steady. Deere rose 0.3%, Cummins gained 0.3% and Paccar added 0.2% on the day, according to market data.

Investors are also tracking whether market leadership keeps broadening beyond big technology, Reuters reported, after non-tech areas such as financials and transports outperformed tech in recent weeks. 3

“Handicapping how many rate cuts we’re going to get next year is a big thing markets are focused on right now,” Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, said. 3

Caterpillar, which sells construction and mining equipment and power systems and provides financing through its Financial Products segment, tends to be sensitive to both end-market demand and borrowing conditions for dealers and customers. 4

Ahead of Monday’s open, traders will be watching for outsized swings tied to year-end portfolio adjustments, when lighter volumes can magnify moves, Reuters said. 3

On the chart, the stock has pulled back from a recent $627.50 high on Dec. 12 and rebounded from a Dec. 17 low of $557.46, putting the mid-$580s in focus going into the final trading days of the year. 1

Income-focused investors also have a date on the calendar: Caterpillar’s next ex-dividend date is Jan. 20, with a $1.51-per-share dividend payable Feb. 19, according to the company’s dividend history. 5

Wall Street will also look ahead to fourth-quarter results, with MarketScreener listing a projected Q4 2025 earnings release on Jan. 28. 6

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