New York, Jan 9, 2026, 21:15 EST — Market closed.
- Caterpillar shares climbed 1.6% on Friday, following the S&P 500’s record closing high
- After a weaker U.S. jobs report, investors adjusted their expectations for Fed rate cuts
- A pending Supreme Court tariff case and next week’s inflation data stand as the upcoming catalysts
Caterpillar Inc NYSE:CAT shares climbed 1.56%, ending Friday at $617.62. The gain came amid a broad rally that lifted the S&P 500 to a record high.
The move matters because Caterpillar straddles the divide between interest rates and real-economy spending. When borrowing costs drop, orders for expensive equipment usually become more palatable; but when trade policies tighten, supply chains and final demand can wobble.
Friday’s mood on the market hinged on a jobs report revealing slower hiring alongside a drop in unemployment, complicating predictions for the Fed’s next step. Investors also held their breath for the U.S. Supreme Court’s verdict on a critical tariff case linked to former President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 50,000 in December, falling short of expectations, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted the “low-hire environment continues,” while Fitch Ratings’ Olu Sonola suggested the decline in the jobless rate “should douse the Fed’s recent urgency” to support the labor market. Reuters
On tariffs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters the Treasury could handle any refunds if the court cancels the levies, but said payouts would be staggered and dismissed the idea as a “corporate boondoggle.” The court held off on a tariff decision Friday, leaving the timing — and market fallout — up in the air. Reuters
The next macro hurdle arrives Tuesday with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics set to publish December’s consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Federal Reserve will hold its next policy meeting on Jan. 27-28.
Caterpillar is set to announce its quarterly earnings around Jan. 29, with Zacks forecasting $4.54 per share. Investors will be focused on any 2026 guidance, especially around pricing, dealer inventories, and demand in construction, mining, and energy sectors.
Income investors are eyeing Jan. 20 closely: Caterpillar has set its ex-dividend and record date for that day, locking in a $1.51 quarterly payout. The payment will follow on Feb. 19.
But the picture isn’t straightforward. China’s consumer inflation ticked up in December, while factory-gate prices remained in deflation. Economists highlighted weak demand and overcapacity—factors that could dampen appetite for machinery tied to commodities and construction.
CAT is trading just under 2% shy of its 52-week peak at $627.50, having fluctuated between $608.20 and $619.15 on Friday. As U.S. markets reopen Monday, investors are focused on any Supreme Court tariff announcements and the CPI report due Tuesday.
